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Out of Balance

Posted on July 20, 2005 by Edward Hugh

The expression ‘global imbalances’ has become somewhat fashionable of late. But what exactly are these imbalances, and why are they important. The IMF in its most recent World Economic Outlook draws attention to two of them:

The (current) expansion has become less balanced. Growth has been stronger than expected in the United States, where the ?soft spot? proved more moderate than previously thought; in China, where activity remains buoyant despite tightening measures; and in most emerging market and developing countries. In contrast, growth in Europe and Japan has been disappointing, reflecting?to different extents? faltering exports and weak final domestic demand.

Global current account imbalances have widened. The U.S. current account deficit is estimated at a record 5.7 percent of GDP in 2004, with the effects of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar to date offset by continued strong domestic
demand relative to its trading partners and higher oil prices. This is matched by current account surpluses in emerging Asia, Japan, the oil-producing countries in the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and?to a much lesser extent? the euro area.

Well here we have two of the more obvious of those famed ‘imbalances’ – imbalances in growth and in trade accounts – but are there more of them?

This entry was posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Europe and the world and tagged current account, Europe and the world, growth, imbalances by Edward Hugh. Bookmark the permalink.

About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".
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