Any opinions from Germany on this?
“Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der’s re-election hopes were dealt a fresh blow on Tuesday after a charismatic political rival said he would join leftwing groupings to run against the German leader.
Oskar Lafontaine, former chairman of Mr Schr?der’s Social Democratic party, said he would give up his party membership and enter the electoral battle if other SPD dissidents and neo-communists ran on a joint ticket.”
Is this a real issue, or a media event?
And this is also being floated:
Should the umbrella group win in sufficient numbers, it could rob both centre-right and centre-left of an outright majority, forcing the opposition Christian Democratic Union into a grand coalition with the SPD.
Might a “grand coalition” not be a good thing? That way the government can reform without getting populist blame thrown at it by an opposition that’s also a real rival for power.
What makes you think that small parties cannot be an opposition? The last time the FDP and NPD grew enormously.
Again, have a look at the upper house. A grand coaltion currently has 36 votes. If any large party needs to form a coalition in a state it’s over again. The supposed power of a grand coalition is an illusion.
Now for the lefties. Them drawing votes from the right is less likely than drawing from the left, but it might be damaging. But it requires them to organize very quickly and the the PDS to agree, which is far from certain. If they really manage it, it’s the last nail in the coffin of red/green and major trouble long term. In the past when this happened there was no PDS which virtually ensured that they’d stay above 5%. The date looks to be set, but before Schr?der allows the party to split he may yet move it. There’s little constitutional limit on how quickly you may have new elections.
Update: They’ll meet this week. The future is uncertain.
Lafontaine has been on the way out of the SPD for quite some time. He just picked the most spectacular moment possible to make it public.
It’s hard to judge how well a new leftist Party would do. I think it would not do well.
In Germany, new parties rarely ever make it into the Bundestag in a single jump. They have to build up a base in the states first and usually fail there. The Greens and the PDS (a rather special case) are the only new parties in the Bundestag in at least four decades.
In spite of all the misgivings about the SPD, I don’t think that many in the West would vote for them. There is the 5% hurdle it has to clear, which deters voters from such experiments. There also is a fair amount of deep-seated loyalty to the SPD left over that would prevent voting for “traitors”. Lafontaine himself is not that popular in the West and in the East people will not have forgotten that he spoke out against reunification.
I think their only chance at a place in parliament is if they form an alliance with the PDS so that the new group gets votes in the West and the PDS in East Germany. In terms of issues, they probably are not that far apart. But I don’t see the power-hungry Lafontaine taking part in any such deal, and a lot of followers on both sides wouldn’t like it, either.
If they don’t get into parliament, they might cost the SPD a few percentage points, but all election prospects are far too uncertain at the moment to call such minor differences.
From the perspective of a non-German Lafontaine appears to be just a sideshow. The news media tend to overdramatise events they are too close to, and the FT is no exception.
The real issue still seems to me to be that Germany must continue with the process of structural reform whoever is in government – perhaps the best thing for Germany might be a government of national unity to push through the necessary measures.
Another interesting development is that Schreoder in an interview for “Die Zeit” yesterday refused to officially announce that he wants a new red-green coalition. According to him, “it’s every party for itself”.
Here is the interview: http://www.zeit.de/2005/22/schroeder_meldung
Here is a thought-provoking website with some interesting arguments about the situation (in German) from a left-of-center perspective (in German):
http://www.nachdenkseiten.de/
It argues that Schroeder’s move will accelerate the SPD’s decline rather than stop it. Basically, by forcing people to vote either for his unpopular version of the reform agenda or for the CDU/FDP version, which in effect differ little, he will drive voters away from the SPD to not voting or voting for radicals. The author argues that Schroedder should have stayed on until 2006, fine-tuning the present reform package towards better caring for the poor and making the difference to the neoliberal CDU/FDP program more visible.
Now for the lefties. Them drawing votes from the right is less likely than drawing from the left
If we look at the elections in NRW, we see that Ruettgers did exactly the opposite – he attracted workers, a typical SPD clientile. If those workers just wanted to vote against the current coalition, they didn’t have much choice (the PDS is not established that well in the West). If those voters are are offered a left alternative now, they might as well vote for that new left alliance.
As for the CDU – I have seen reactions where traditional CDU voters said, they wouldn’t vote for the CDU is Merkel is nominated for them. What are the alternatives for them? SPD seems unlikely, but possible. Let’s hope they don’t do what some Saxon voters did – vote NPD (or any other rightwing party).
As for the PDS. I am wondering how interested the PDS is in forming and alliance with a new left party from the West. I am fairly positive, they could enter parliament by themselves, what would be their interest in teaming up with a west German party? Teaming up with Lafontaines party could actually hurt the PDS. PDS has in the last elections profiled themselves as a regional party and catered to those who want a voice for the East. Teaming up with a west German party, raises the question: why vote for the PDS if it looses that profile? If B90/Greens or the history of the party development in the past is any indicator, then that would be a bad move for the PDS. And I am sure Oskar wouldn’t like to be “sidelined” and play in the background.
There was a “left-alternative” list in the NRW election, admittedly without a preening leader. In the event — and the protest vote was essentially a free one since the SPD was headed out of power anyway — the WASG, as it was called, got 2.2% of the vote. That’s about 0.5% more than the combined Republikaner and NPD votes. Oskar knows how to get a headline, but any new party is likely to have zippo impact.
This is from the Stern today, if you read German, check it out:
http://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/540788.html?nv=nl_cp_L1_st
WASG alone doesn’t have a chance nationally. However, as it looks from the Stern Artikel – the PDS doesn’t seem to love the idea of the WASG/PDS alliance. Moneyquote: “The WASG was precisely founded because they didn’t want to be the PDS”.
Gysi thinks the idea of an alliance is impossible to realize in the shortness of time.
Melli said, “As for the CDU – I have seen reactions where
traditional CDU voters said, they wouldn’t vote for the CDU
is Merkel is nominated for them. What are the alternatives
for them? SPD seems unlikely, but possible. Let’s hope they
don’t do what some Saxon voters did – vote NPD (or any other
rightwing party).”
Now I would have guessed that the NPD was drawing it’s support
from former communists. Or course that’s just a guess, based
on NPD rhetoric.
On the other hand, Melli, do you have any evidence as to
what parties NPD voters previously voted for?
“Gysi thinks the idea of an alliance is impossible to realize in the shortness of time.”
Maybe a reason for the quick election?
“In Germany, new parties rarely ever make it into the Bundestag in a single jump.”
Yes, the barriers to entry are deliberately set extremely high. But the social demand for a left alternative to tax cuts and weakening the trade unions is very strong. It will be interesting to see which of these powerful factors prevails.
If those voters are are offered a left alternative now, they might as well vote for that new left alliance.
They might, but you cannot draw the conclusion that those still voting SPD will do so if there’s an alternative with realistic chances.
I have seen reactions where traditional CDU voters said, they wouldn’t vote for the CDU is Merkel is nominated for them
So they said about R?ttgers, about Kohl, etc…
what would be their interest in teaming up with a west German party?
Idealistically, the popular front is not yet buried. Then there’s the Bundestag. Polls show them at about 5%, not really a secure entry. Then there’s demographics. The eastern population still flows west and shrinks quicker. They are losing voters. Becoming a true national party will appeal to some.
the WASG, as it was called, got 2.2% of the vote.
Add the PDS and you are above 3%. Lafontaine isn’t stupid. He knows he’d need the PDS more than they need him. He’ll act accordingly. If this fails it’ll fail because the PDS doesn’t agree.
That doesn’t mean that it’ll succeed, but don’t rule it out and if they join, they’ll be elected for sure.
Mark, the only evidence I have is based on the State election 2004 in Saxony and Brandenburg.
Statistics in voter migration that I used looking at it, suggested that the NPD drew its support largely from former CDU voters.
The DVU in Brandenburg attracted previous non-voters, previous CDU voters and even lost some voters to the SPD, FDP and PDS (It’s vote share only increased by 0.8% to the previous elections).
Maybe a reason for the quick election?
Certainly wouldn’t rule that out.
So they said about R?ttgers, about Kohl, etc…
Neither one of them were female nor East German, something that seems to matter to some voters, especially from the CSU heartland.
Polls show them at about 5%, not really a secure entry. With Gysi most likely being again at the head that may change. Secondly, in the last state election in Brandenburg (in BB), the PDS caught many districts as direkt mandates. While the PDS performed well inThuringia and Saxony as well, their vote share is largely based on second votes, not direct candidates.
In BB the districts conquered by direct mandates for the PDS are clustered on the East Side of the state and effect 5 federal districts (which are much larger). Now it is too soon to make a prediction on this. In the last federal election those districts were won by SPD members with wide majorities. So I am not sure they are in a real danger. On the other hand, the area around Frankfurt/Oder certainly has no reason to be happy with the SPd as the SPD declined federal subsidies to save the project of the “Chipfabrik” in Frankfurt, leaving the region structurally weak and vulnerable. I am doubtful, voters there would swing to the CDU though. But as I said, too soon to make a predicition on that. PDS might gain some strength, as soon as Gysi has decided what his role in the campaign will be.
Another thing, and that is just an impression of mine. I think an alliance with Lafontaine could hurt the PDS at this point of time (might be discussed later on, though). Lafontaine is not very popular in the East I think. He wasn’t that well received at the Monday demonstrations last year. But that is just an impression.
I am curious to see how this all works out.
>Lafontaine isn’t stupid.
Maybe, but he’s really become a bad joke. I think hHe’s always tried to antagonize and then offer himself as the integrating solution… now that he’s out of the game, he can only antagonize. He still attracts cameras. But he’s not credible anymore.
Melli, I don’t think that right wing extremists will be too important in the upcoming election, the main point is institutional. No one can beat the CDU’s argument of a surplus Bundesrat majority that effectively limits the CDU state premiers powers vis-a-vis the federal government. I can’t really think of any twist for the SPD to argue against that. They can still screw it up, of course. But I think this time they will be given the chance to prove they can finish the job.
Tobias, I agree, I don’t think right-wing extremists will be playing a role nationally. This issue came up in the context of what alternatives could be to voting CDU/CSU if people don’t wanna vote for the CSU/CDU because of Angela Merkel. What is the alternative. I do not see any. And even though right wing extremists got those people in the State elections in Saxony and BB, I don’t think that works nationally. So either they vote CDU or FDP. I doubt CDU voters vote their biggest opponent SPD, just because of Frau Merkel. Only not clearly aligned voters who contemplated voting for the CDU instead of the SPD might do that. I am curious to see the poll development now that Merkel’s nomination seems more and more possible.
Interesting times indeed
Further developments (in German):
Many prominent leftists from the SPD won’t join Lafontaine’s party, but demand changes to policies:
http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/28/0,3672,2302908,00.html
Lafontaine and Gysi will meet to discuss the relation between WASG and PDS, but there are already serious disputes:
http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/6/0,3672,2302918,00.html
There is dispute within the CDU about how to handle the EU candidacy of Turkey during the election campaign and when in government
http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/12/0,3672,2302924,00.html
This is partly a fight over the strength of Stoiber in the CDU lineup
The CDU promises to change the Hartz IV reforms to pay more money to the long-term unemployed:
http://tagesschau.de/aktuell/meldungen/0,1185,OID4371424_NAV_REF1,00.html
I wonder how many voters will believe this ?
New alliance poses a challenge in Germany
The coming together of the radical left could lay the basis for a historic breakthrough in Europe?s biggest economy, writes Stefan Bornost
Following a disastrous defeat for the governing SPD, the equivalent of Britain?s Labour Party, in its North Rhine and Westphalia heartland, it has called for early elections in a desperate move to ward off rebellion in its ranks.
The SPD?s defeat two weeks ago was a turning point in German politics. While it was widely expected, the scale shook the SPD leadership. The general disillusionment with the SPD means there is a great opportunity to build a credible left wing alternative.
The Wahlalternative, a new left wing party, stood in the North Rhine and Westphalia elections winning 2.2 percent.
Talks have begun between the Wahlalternative and the former East German Communists the PDS to build a new united left initiative.
Significantly, Oskar Lafontaine, former SPD party leader and finance minister, who is comparable to Tony Benn in Britain, left the SPD last week after 39 years of membership.
He is ready to head up a united left against Germany?s SPD chancellor, Gerhard Schr?der. The party offices of the Wahlalternative and the PDS have been bombarded with e-mails calling on them to act together.
Surveys already show that 8 percent of people would definitely vote for a joint left effort headed by Lafontaine, and it has a possible 18-22 percent level of support.
By announcing this early election, the coalition government of the SPD and Greens has declared its political bankruptcy.
Their main initiatives, the Agenda 2010 and the dismantling of social security, have been the most aggressive attack on the welfare state since the Second World War.
The SPD has lost 135,000 members under Schr?der. In January this year, after the cuts in unemployment benefits came into effect, 10,000 left the SPD.
The founding of the Wahlalternative in 2004 was the most palpable result of the bitterness of SPD supporters. Its best results in the recent elections were in former SPD strongholds such as Oberhausen, where it got 4.3 percent.
With 180,000 votes gained, it made the best first showing of a left party in the region since the Second World War. The SPD?s continuing decay and loss of popular support are the core reasons for the call for early elections.
Schr?der and the SPD?s general secretary, Franz M?ntefering, fear the party?s break-up and internal resistance to their neo-liberal agenda.
Ottmar Schreiner, the leader of the workers? wing of the SPD, has threatened to leave the party. Eleven MPs have said they will not vote for tax breaks for big corporations.
M?ntefering told Schr?der he had lost control of the parliamentary fraction. Schr?der decided on early elections because, in the words of a source, ?he wanted to choose the rope to hang on?.
The left now has four months to make a big step forward.
Many issues remain unresolved. The PDS is a ruling party in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, forcing through severe cuts. A joint platform against neo-liberalism would call into question its role in these local governments.
The overall mood is one of excitement and the urge for unity is overwhelming. A historic window for the German left has opened.
We have a chance to organise the general mood, which has led to big social protests in Germany, the French no to the European constitution and the Respect breakthrough in Britain.
http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/article.php4?article_id=6604