While the more important part of Germany’s electorate seems to be treating the ongoing campaign as some kind of diversion from a rather rainy summer, there is also, according to a poll published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine today, a common understanding that the upcoming federal election – the one that will take place on September 18 if the constitutional court confirms President Koehler’s decision to dissolve the Bundestag – is a particularly important one.
Given this sentiment and the most unusual way the elections were called, it is not entirely surprising that, in addition to the usual pollsters, political scientists concerned with electoral research are having a busy summer. One of them is my friend Thorsten Faas at the University Duisburg-Essen, who is currently asking Germans to spend a couple of minutes filling out an online survey at www.wahlumfrage2005.de (in German).
So if you’re entitled to vote in Germany, are interested in the kind of questions political scientists might ask to make you reveal all your self-contradicting political opinions, and have a couple of minutes to spare for the progress of science, why not take the survey. I already did, and it didn’t hurt…
verdammt doch mal dat zeug ist ja kaputt funktioniert nit du lieber ich schwoere kannst doch selber versuchen.. hic hic.. g’sundheit na ja pros’t
Hi Tobias
Unfortunately I’m not entitled to vote in Germany, so I can’t do the survey :).
However, as you say, the elections are important, even if we can’t be 100% sure yet that they will actually take place. A lot of reports are appearing in the English language press, and I wonder if you have any observations.
In particular I am thinking of references to the fact that Merkel’s campaign seems to be “Gaffe ridden” and that Schroder is attempting to steer the debate away from economic issues.
Also this morning there is some comment on Merkel’s team. The surprise inclusion of Paul Kirchhof and his flat rate tax proposal, or Peter M?ller’s proposals to reintroduce mandatory qualifications for certain professions, or even the controversial appointment of Dieter Althaus, state premier of Thuringia, as the CDU?s eastern Germany expert when Merkel had been insisting that Germany required one single economic policy aimed at boosting employment across the country.
Or again there is the proposed Berlin memorial for German victims in the East, and finally the speculation about the possibility of a grand coalition should the CDU and its allies not get the necessary 50%.
Lots of issues. Feelings on some/any of them, Tobias/anyone?
Edward, yes, I do have a lot of feelings, and not a few of them are political ;). And I am in the process of formulating the latter ones… I’ve been on and off writing on a longer article about the memorial as well as a generall round up of my take on the current political situation. Maybe I’ll split those more and put them online soon.
As for Paul Kirchhoff, I hope he insisted on some safeguards, but his conditioned nomination – after all, Bavaria’s State Premier Stoiber could pick the post after the election – is at least slightly reminiscent of the nomination of Jost Stollmann in 1998. Stollmann, a “new economy” entrepreneur was nominated by Schroeder as economics minister – and served to illstrate the SPD’s reformist, centrist strategy. But, obviously, he was outmanoevered in a most classical way by then SPD chairman Oskar Lafontaine after the election. There’s not only a small chance this is the same in reverse… seems like the FAZ is already buying the manoever.
“Peter M?ller’s proposals to reintroduce mandatory qualifications for certain professions”
How’s that supposed to help with employment?
“How’s that supposed to help with employment?”
Well it isn’t really, it’s to de-flexibilise the market, that’s why it’s seen as controversial, undoing some of the SPD’s reforms. It is, I think, intended to encourage people to study for professional qualifications (the best case view) or protectionism (the worst case interpretation).
But this is just one example of how complex political relations really are in Germany.
Incidentally New Economist has some more on this here:
http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2005/08/can_germany_ref.html
-Sigh- Seems the chances for a European services directive are well and truly gone then…
Makes me wonder what will appear in the national Lissabon agenda for Germany come october. Right after the election, what irony of political timing.
Kirchof’s proposal is not a flat tax.
See here
steer the debate away from economic issues
That worked once. It won’t work twice.