The Second Great Depression seems to have now spread from Ukraine, and arrived in Hungary.

Hungarian industrial production fell the most in December since at least 1991 as a recession in western Europe cut export demand and dragged the economy into its worst decline in 15 years. Production dropped 23.3 percent from a year earlier, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, after falling 9.9 percent in November, the Budapest-based statistics office said, based on preliminary data. Output fell 14.6 percent month on month.

And it only looks set to get worse, since Hungary’s manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) fell to a all-time low of 38.6 in January, down from 40.8 in December. Any PMI index figure above 50 indicates expansion while a figure below 50 shows contraction in economic activity. The index hadn’t been below the critical 50 mark for more than three years before it dropped below (to 42.6) in October last year. Gábor Ambrus, economist at 4Cast, in London, estimates that (in part as a result of the gas crisis) output could drop by another 14.6% between December and January, which will give another huge drop in the year on year number.

“What can I say, just terrible. It appears to be weak on both domestic and external sides, but with Hungary a small open economy it is likely to remain under pressure from contracting demand across the globe and the Eurozone in particular……This isn’t just a Hungarian phenomenon however, as German IP today will be weak as will the UK data, albeit not as soft as this number. The business surveys remain weak so it’s difficult to forecast any near term recovery. Consequently, the estimate for GDP growth of -3% this year may soon look on the optimistic side.”
Stuart Bennet, Caylon, London