And quiet falls the dram

It hasn’t attracted much attention, but little Armenia just gave up on supporting its currency, the dram, and allowed it to float free. The dram promptly fell by 20%, leading to price hikes and a brief wave of panic buying and hoarding.

This is sort of a non-story at an international level, because (1) Armenia is tiny, (2) so many Eastern European currencies have been dropping that another one comes as no surprise, and (3) unlike some other places, Armenia’s economy is not actually imploding. The currency adjustment was probably long overdue, and the subsequent panic is already slacking off. Armenia’s economic numbers show a recession, but a relatively mild one; to oversimplify, the relative backwardness and isolation of Armenia’s economy and financial system are serving to buffer it from the worst of the crisis.

From an Armenian perspective, of course, this is huge news. And more interesting than it looks; there’s a plausible case to be made that the Central Bank allowed the dram to stay overvalued for much too long in order for some well-connected local players to get very rich. The opposition is advancing this case as loudly as they can. Since the government dominates all the TV news and most of the radio, magazines and newspapers, that’s not very loudly. And this is the same government that gunned down a bunch of peaceful protesters just over a year ago. So, the odds of any political fallout from the devaluation are pretty long.

Still… offered as another data point.

2 thoughts on “And quiet falls the dram

  1. And more interesting than it looks; there’s a plausible case to be made that the Central Bank allowed the dram to stay overvalued for much too long in order for some well-connected local players to get very rich.

    Having an overvalued exchange rate is a fairly classic way for a developing-country elite to skim off the wealth; they get cheap luxury imports, and it’s easier to get your capital out of the country.

  2. Armenia has an additional wrinkle: a lot of major imports are controlled by a small group of people. Fuel, food, cars, trucks… all either near-monopolies or oligopolies.

    So, strong currency -> cheap import purchases, but no need to bother the poor dear consumers with lower prices; we’ll just pocket the surplus and move on.

    Doug M.

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