about Iran.
via Andrew Sullivan — who, for his work this past week, shall be forgiven much — comes Daniel Larison, fretting about regime collapse and separatist movements in Iran. Those strike me as deeply improbable. Iran is not a failed or even a particularly weak state; if the current incumbents are forced out of power, others will step in. And most of Iran’s minorities are, if not exactly content, uninterested in separatism.
Note that unlike most of its neighbors — Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey — Iran has never had a serious separatist threat. The largest minority, the Azeris, is very well integrated by regional standards; they fought and died in the Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War at the same rate as ethnic Persians, and Supreme leader Khameini is half Azeri. The Bush administration spent several years fishing in the waters of ethnic separatism, without much effect that anyone has been able to see.
But I think it’s going to be moot, because I don’t think Iran’s regime is going down.
I really don’t want to be righ, because if the regime stays in power, it’s probably going to kill a lot of people. But — cracks in the edifice notwithstanding — I’m not seeing the men with guns turning. And that’s what it comes down to.
We’re afraid in that case you’ll have a fall.
We’ve been watching you over the garden wall
For hours.
The sky is darkening like a stain,
Something is going to fall like rain
And it won’t be flowers.
When the green field comes off like a lid
Revealing what was much better hid:
Unpleasant.
And look, behind you without a sound
The woods have come up and are standing round
In deadly crescent.
The bolt is sliding in its groove,
Outside the window is the black remov-
ers’ van.
And now with sudden swift emergence
Come the woman in dark glasses and humpbacked surgeons
And the scissors man.
http://southissouth.wordpress.com/2009/06/22/machiavelli-rafsanjani-ally-speaks-about-legitimacy/
Yes. Andrew Sullivan, defender of THe Bell Curve and who frets about “Brown Skin” in the streets of Tehran. He was referring to Arabs.
I take him and you so seriously.
[shrug] anonymous, I don’t really care whether you take me seriously or not. Don’t like it, don’t read it.
But while I hold no brief for Andrew Sullivan, I note that the “brown skin” comment was from one of the Iranian protesters; Sullivan simply transcribed it (along with 50 or 60 others) without comment.
Doug M.
Wasn’t there separatism under Stalin?
Hilzoy has very interesting thoughts on deeper tremors within the Islamic Republic.
Thanks to Ahmadinejad Azeris can now study in university in their own language. And when he recited Azeri poetry in his speeches in the region.
http://pulsemedia.org/2009/06/23/british-iranians-protest-bbc/#more-13110
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF17Ak01.html
“In respect of the economy, it was quite evident in January when I was last in Teheran, as the only non-Iranian speaker at a high-level conference, that the “reformist” Western financial approach to privatize everything and fuel the economy with debt, has taken a big hit. Here, the reformists are in exactly the same position as Obama: they don’t have a Plan B.”
http://pulsemedia.org/2009/06/23/irans-election-a-debate/#comments
“The only independent nationwide poll in Iran prior to the election was conducted by the New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow. In the light of the developments since division has emerged among the various analysts at NAF. Yesterday NAF organized a forum where the two camps debated their respective positions.”
Watch the Video and read the comments
Election results among Iranians in German exile:
8.886 (100 %) voters
Moussawi 6894 (77,6 %)
Ahmadinedschad 1.137 (12,8 %)
Karrubi 598 (7,9 %)
Rezai 146 (1,5 %)
invalid votes 111 (1,2 %)
The best analysis of the Iranian election can be found on Juan Cole’s site.
Charly, the USSR occupied a chunk of NW Iran during WWII, and then was very slow to let it go afterwards. They did indeed set up a “separatist” government as a trial balloon.
Doug, I like hilzoy, but I think she’s… somewhat missing the point.
anonymous, if you’re just here to post random links, it’s not hard to get your own blog.
Doug M.
I dunno, hilzoy is asking what kind of legitimacy the Mousavi folks can claim within the framework of the ’79 revolution. Maybe that turns out to be as much of a chimera as socialism with a human face. Or maybe the establishment takes this round, but the kind of legitimacy she’s talking about drives the next round of reformers.
Yes, she’s looking past the immediate crisis, but I’m not sure that counts as missing the point.
I have the impression she’s assuming her conclusion (viz., that the current system is going to be, at a minimum, damaged.)
People keep forgetting that a large minority of the country is firmly behind Ahmadinejad and/or Khameini. And a lot of these people are not dismayed, but energized, at the prospect of beating the crap out of the liberals.
It’s possible my thinking here is influenced by my experience in Armenia, sure. But the government’s win there was just total and complete — Armenia’s high levels of education and sophistication notwithstanding.
Doug M.
“Note that unlike most of its neighbors — Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey — Iran has never had a serious separatist threat”
What about the Khuzestani separatists who took over the Iranian embassy in London? Or were they just a one-off?
“People keep forgetting that a large minority of the country is firmly behind Ahmadinejad and/or Khameini.”
Watch the video and listen to the arguments. Every one of the speakers knows more than about the current situation in Iran you do. That applies both to those you would agree with and those such as Flynt Leverett who you dismiss out of hand.
Wishful thinking leads to bad policy and bad politics.
Read Brookings economist Djavad Salehi-Isfahani in the NY Times.
http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/where-will-the-power-lie-in-iran/
http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/23/behind-the-protests-social-upheaval-in-iran/
Ajay, my impression is that they were a one-off. That’s why I said “serious” separatist threat — they do have separatists, but none that are anywhere near being a real threat, never mind actually achieving their goals. There’s nothing in Iran that remotely compares to (for instance) the Kurds in Iraq.
Doug M.
OK, fair point – I wasn’t sure whether they represented some sort of widespread movement