Czech Republic Having Second Thoughts

I missed this at the time, but apparently officials responsible for monetary policy in the Czech Republic are begining to have second thoughts about joining the euro.

“Czech central bank policy maker Robert Holman said the government should abandon plans to adopt the euro by 2010 because joining the single currency may stifle growth, the first central banker in the country to call for a delay.

“I would not rush with euro adoption because it represents significant risks for us,” said Holman, 51, who joined the bank’s board on Feb. 13, in a May 18 interview in Prague. “The euro zone economy has been growing very slowly in the past five years, and among other factors, it could have been caused by having the common currency.””

Indeed an adoption of the euro by the Czech republic would not be necessary on the grounds which have convinced most South European participants to enter: cheaper interest rates. The Czech Republic’s benchmark interest rate currently stands at 1.75%, compared with the 2% in the eurozone. The only clear gain would be in transaction costs: 80% of Czech foreign trade is in euros. Add to this the fact that Sweden and Denmark have not evidently suffered by staying out, and the Czechs must be asking themselves whether the price of losing your own monetary policy is really worth it.

According to Viktor Kotlan, chief economist at Prague-based Ceska Sporitelna AS: “Unlike some new EU members, the Czechs have stable inflation, stable inflation expectations and their central bank has great confidence.””

What more do you want?

Actually these ‘euro’ concerns are not the only thing which the Czechs are debating at the present time. There is still no decision on whether they will hold a referendum on the Constitution Treaty: still this time next week that may already have become irrelevant.

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About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".