The FT asks today (behind the dreaded ppv firewall I’m afraid) whether the current “Kapitalismus” debate in Germany may not represent something more than short-term electioneeering. Could a real shift in the SPD be actually taking place?
The most ignominious defeat of Gerhard Schr?der’s political career may be at hand. On Sunday, in the 12th regional election since Mr Schr?der, the chancellor, scraped back into national office in 2002, polls suggest that his Social Democratic party will be routed in North Rhine-Westphalia – Germany’s most populous state, the industrial heartland of the country’s postwar economic miracle and an SPD bastion for decades.
Defeat would not only turf the SPD out of regional government in the state for the first time since 1966 but would end the last ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens in any of Germany’s 16 regions, leaving the federal government in Berlin as the last “red-green” partnership in the country.
The central point is: where is all this leading? It is far from clear. There is a clear danger of electoral setbacks in Germany and a ‘no’ in the French referendum producing an ‘anti-reform’ backlash, with growing protectionism as a backdrop.
Why would a defeat of a party whose leader has spoken against further reform, if you may call it that, represent a vote against reform? The current opposition in that state is running on a platform of budget cuts.
“represent a vote against reform?”
Oliver, I’m not exactly saying this. I’m saying that the electoral defeats can have a longer term consequence on the SPD. Hans Werner Sinn suggests that 40% of the German electorate now depend on state welfare benefits in some form or another. Given this it becomes increasingly difficult to convince people of the need for painful reforms.
It could be easier to suggest that the problems come from ‘unfair competition’ from Central Europe, globalisation and international financial markets (as demonised in the form of hedge funds)etc.
I am not convinced, given that in the end it also has an electoral base to satisfy, the CDU/CSU will be any more reforming than the SPD. Certainly there will be little serious room for eg tax cuts and other traditional agenda items.
So then we could have an SPD challenging for re-election towards the end of the decade with a rather radical, and effectively ‘head in the sand’ like programme.
This would be worrying, since the window of opportunity here is limited.
I’m saying that the electoral defeats can have a longer term consequence on the SPD.
Rather worry about the Greens. For them this is turning into a wipeout.
It could be easier to suggest that the problems come from ‘unfair competition’ from Central Europe
Some form of rising nationalism is likely, yes, but that’s not the end of the world. Unless you feel strongly about Turkey’s chance to join the EU.
SPD challenging for re-election towards the end of the decade with a rather radical
They might but would lose. Reversing such things is much harder than opposing them beforehand.
I don’t want to sound alarmist Oliver, but when I say you have a window of opportunity, I mean it. The demographics indicate that if you haven’t turned all this round by the beginnings of the next decade you could get into a very vicous circle indeed. So time is pressing.
“Unless you feel strongly about Turkey’s chance to join the EU”.
In principle I’m in favour, but as I’m arguing on another post, not so strongly as to want to risk tearing the EU apart with the issue. The German case is another one however.
Turkey needs to accept the Armenian genocide, and Germany needs to accept Turkey. You have become historically ‘paired’. If Germany can’t rise to the challenge of cohabitation with Turkish culture, then I don’t see you climbing through that window I’m talking about. It’s as direct as that.
“I don’t want to sound alarmist Oliver, but when I say you have a window of opportunity, I mean it. The demographics indicate that if you haven’t turned all this round by the beginnings of the next decade you could get into a very vicous circle indeed. So time is pressing.”
Then, frankly, the state of the SPD is not important. There isn’t much time left until the next federal elections.