Romania’s government lost its majority over the weekend. I know, it took us a little while to notice, too. In fact, our attention was called to it by the German newspaper whose web site could be better organized (page 6 of today’s edition, not on the web site apparently).
The Conservatives departed the four-party coalition, a move that was not unexpected, given that they had already threatened to walk out this summer. The background is suitably Balkan, a mix of personal clashes, links to Communist-era security services (of which Romania’s was one of the nastiest), and using public office for private gain.
Less than a month before Romania’s accession to the EU, this is not a great sign. On the other hand, no one seems to want to bring the government down before then. So Romania will enter with a minority cabinet, which will fall early next year, with elections to follow. Welcome to Brussels, Bucharest.
The retreat of the miniscule party which withdrew from the government might be covered by organized groups of desertors (e.g., the union members whom entered the Parliament with the Great Romanai Party and parted way immediately after elections), or by individuals keen to keep their place in the Parliament. It is quite sure that the opposition Social-Democrats and Great Romania Party will have fewer MPs if early elections are called at this time, and this could also be true for the governing Liberals, hence individuals from the bottom of the candidate list will hold with their teeth on their seats and even opposition parties (including the party that just gave up power) might have strategies to avoid early election at a point when the quasi-presidential Democrat Party holds a strong advantage in the polls, and love for President Basescu seems to have no end. Apparently, it is the first minority government is in power in Romania, but the previous government (2000-2004 Social-Democrats) wasn’t to be validated in the first place if it wasn’t for the support of the then-opposition Liberals.
Of course, the aforementioned Presidenty Basescu would like to take advantage of his position in the polls, but Romania never ad early elections and the procedure to get to them is a bit scary for the government party. Namely, the governemnt will have to be demoted by the Parliament and then the Parliament will have to reject twice the proposed replacements. This will lead to the unfortunate situation when the MPs from the current leding coalition will have to vote against their candidates, somehow suggesting that they dislike them. Besides, the parties in power are, I think, afraid that this strategy will backfire by having all the opposition MPs voting for the government and forcing the ruling coalition to.. well… rule.
The Romanian democracy, scared by these (probaly imaginary) plots, proves itself still young.
What Luci said.
Although I do expect early elections next year, if only because President Basescu really wants them.
Doug M.