After the Russian gas showdown with Ukraine, the Turkmen gas showdown with Russia. Two can play at that game, it seems. No doubt a lot of this is motivated, like the Ukraine crisis, by the decision makers’ own corruption interests in their Austrian, Swiss or God knows where nominee companies and numbered accounts. No doubt the futility of refusing to sell one’s only product will be apparent soon enough.
But it does point up something-first of all, despite the apparent ebbing of US influence in central Asia (airbase agreements being allowed to lapse, etc), the ‘Stans are very far from a calm hinterland for Russian energy geopolitics. Another thing is that the wider version of this politics – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, aka “OPEC with Bombs” or the Dictators’ Club if you want to sound Hollywood – might not be as stable as its creators would like to believe. This cuts both ways.
One view of the SCO’s future is that of a gas and oil-empowered alliance of Russia, China, central Asia and maybe Iran, or rather, of their elites. Dedicated to staying that way. It’s not a nice thought, and is certainly one that should inform the debate about the British nuclear deterrent. Another version of it is as a club of toughminded realpolitiker dedicated to keeping the jihadis away from the pipelines, and in the near future the railways. Bolshy independence within it could weaken both these scenarios, although (given the traditional Russian and Chinese approach to central Asian Muslims) that might be quite a good thing.
Alex,
You may find this series of interest.
UNDER THE SIGN OF ANDIJAN
The Uzbek Islamic Radicals – The Warrant of Russian Interests
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=508
Saudi Intelligence Versus the Pentagon
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=506
The Pro-Arab Lobby Versus Islam
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=511
The USA Conceded to the Asian Threats
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=513
Central Asia Divided by the Russians, the Chinese, and the Arabs
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=529
Iranians and Turks Won at the Beginning of Great Game’s New Round
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=551
Chinese-Russian Repartition of Asia
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=556
Chinese-Russian Repartition of Asia (Part II)
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=557
The Chinese-Arab collision is inevitable
pending..author is on assignment
Well, unstable they may be, but Russia and China at least are very stable in positioning themselves as friends of Iran against the United States. globalsecurity.org reported a few years ago that Iranian rocket scientists had been studying at Russian facilities; sure enough, last year, Iran unveiled an anti-ship rocket which matched the speed of the former record-holder for speed, which had been, surprise: a Russian rocket!
Conspicuous in its absence from the SCO is India. If the SCO does prove stable and productive, look for India, an American ally, to remain off that list. India is a power that we’ve pledged to make a “21st-century military power, with a complete understanding of all that entails,” as one of our generals darkly put it last year. We’re choosing up sides for the post-Cold War here.
Stable? S***. Of the countries involved, Russia is headed by a KGB colonel who looks back wistfully to the days of the Soviet Union; China is headed by a Communist party apparently leached of all its former ideology; Tajikistan is led by a crackpot. I don’t know how an organisation with at least three nuclear powers, two with million-man armies, and most with mafiocracies headed by dictatorships, could be stable. They may squabble amongst themselves, but like an alliance of biker gangs, you’d better watch out for them.
India is currently ruled by neo-fascist “Hindu nationalists”, so it is a natural ally of the US. The Anglo-fascists would surely love to use them to nuke a few million muslims.
Anonymous, India is currently ruled by the Congress Party. The Hindu nationalists, some of whose supporters could indeed be described as fascist, lost the last election.
It is, however, interesting that there is now an Indian airbase in Uzbekistan, with a squadron of Sukhoi 30s.
Not when you want to encircle Pakistan
>It is, however, interesting that there is now an Indian airbase in Uzbekistan, with a squadron of Sukhoi 30s.
I didn’t know that. I find that _very_ interesting, considering that a US-backed India would seem to be aimed precisely at China and Russia, the biggest powers behind that SCO bloc. Watch: I bet such an airbase could become the object of a talk or two.