The FT has just put this up:
The Kurdish regional government’s surprise announcement that it had begun drilling for oil in the north of Iraq sparked alarm yesterday, two weeks ahead of national elections.
As the FT indicates, the decision of the Kurdish government hinges on the controversial article 109 of Iraq’s constitution, which gives the federal government the right to manage oil and gas from “current†fields in co-operation with the regions and distribute it to the governorates according to population, but the article does not spell out the division of responsibilities for exploration and production in new fields. The following is also not without significance:
In August 2004, then-oil minister Thamer Ghadhban said Iraq had “unconfirmed or potential†reserves of 214bn barrels. Of this, the KDC estimates the Kurdistan region contains some 45bn barrels.
How are the Kurds going to export the oil without the cooperation of the rest of Iraq? Through Turkey? They can drill all they want, but if they dont plan on drinking the oil themselves, the Kurds are at the mercy of the Shiite majority.
“but if they dont plan on drinking the oil themselves, the Kurds are at the mercy of the Shiite majority.”
Yes, but I don’t think it is the Shia who are the issue here, they stand to benefit from making the same interpretation of the article since most of the rest of the untapped oil is in the south. The ones who will be left high and ‘dry’ and extremely angry are the Sunnis.
Fair enough. Though even a stronger constitutional provision would not save the Sunnis of Iraq. The power struggle is between the Shiites, who have a numerical majority, and the Kurds, who for the moment appear to have the only disciplined armed forces. I expect the Shiites to renegotiate everything in their favour when they have a working army, but til then the Kurds have incentives to put as many facts in the ground as they can.