With Sweden voting on whether to join the Euro tomorrow, it’s a good time to test the predictive knowledge of the readers of A Fistful of Euros. So, what do you think the result of the referendum will be? Give us your prediction in the comments box and we’ll announce th winner on Monday, along with a link to your website or blog, should you have one.
This Reuters article gives the latest polling figures, with both sides averaging around the mid-40s and the undecideds seemingly the key to victory.
My prediction? No, by 53%-47% though that’s based on nothing more than pure guesswork. What do you think?
50-51% yes. Not, I think, the way I would vote if I could (though I very much want the Euro to succeed). But a gesture towards Anna Lindh. A high turnout will boost the Yes vote, since they are the unenthusiastic side.
53-47% yes. Same reasons as Andrew stated. But as Nick said, it’s pure guess work.
My guess is “No” by a miniature margin.
52% no.
high turnout will favor the no side. The yes voters are more committed and likely to vote.
No, 54-46 of non-blank votes, because while everybody will vote tomorrow in honor of Lindh, many undecideds are going to be voting blank I think, so their vote is not going to be split between the two sides, letting the No keep its majority.
I think the Lindh murder will have little effect in the end. Everybody seems determined not to vote emotionally, to make a point that violent acts can have no effect on democratic processes. But that’s just my gut feeling.
I hope you’re right, Stefan, but there is an effect in a lot of polls. Some<i/< effect seems likely.
Having said that, I change my prediction to 54%. But I feel much more uncertain than I did before the murder.
45% to 55% yes, based on the belief that the world will for once work according to my wishes.
I’ll admit the strategy hasn’t been too successful so far, but the law of probability is on my side.
No by a small margin.
By the report on the BBC website, Sweden has voted not to join the Euro: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3108292.stm
A result that is sure to bring much joy to the hearts of liberservative/conservatarians and altermondialistes alike.
“A result that is sure to bring much joy to the hearts of liberservative/conservatarians and altermondialistes alike.”
By news reports, the centre-right in Sweden was in favour of joining the Euro in the referendum campaign.
Canada manages well by retaining its own currency with national monetary autonomy.
In Britain, previous Labour and Conservative Chancellors of the Exchequer – treasury ministers – are on the advisory council of the No campaign.
“the centre-right in Sweden was in favour of joining the Euro in the referendum campaign”
Yes, and this makes the unrestrained glee of the Europhobes all the more puzzling. Sweden’s big business leaders were generally pro-euro, so why are people like Glenn Reynolds joining the Jos? Bov? types in their jubilation? (http://www.instapundit.com/archives/011520.php)
Vaara – I am not telepathic so ask Glenn Reynolds.
The reason that the conservatives and liberals of Sweden wants to join the EMU is their hope that the monetary union will force Swedens terrible world record high taxes to normalise down to the EU level.
In Britain already having quite low taxes the EMU could bring the opposite more burecracy and taxes.
That could be a reason for the conservatives negative Europhobia. Nationalism is also part of the explanation.
Vaara: Europhobia from America can be explained as an awakening (since 9/11) to the prevalence of anti-Americanism in Europe. There is re-evaluation taking place as to why the US should support EU integration, when the EU cannot be counted on as an ally, and might in the future be an enemy.
Still, it’s weird to see all those staunch defenders of the American Way ™ celebrating Sweden’s rejection of the euro, given that it was essentially a victory for the sort of left-wing, anti-globo forces they otherwise despise. One of the reasons I’ve heard most often for the No vote is that Swedes fear that joining the euro would (as Magnus suggests above) damage the generous Swedish welfare state. Never mind that said welfare state contributes to high crime rates and poverty, blah blah blah (remember how widely the conservabots circulated the happy — if bogus — news that Sweden is poorer than Mississippi?)
Strange bedfellows. Indeed. Heh.
I have a little news flash for you, I’m from Mississippi and people here have more disposable income than most Europeans do. While Mississippi may have had poverty for a century after the Civil War, today times have changed, and most people, of all races,are doing quite well. You Europeans can be sooo naive about America, it’s funny.