Another example of the law of unintended consequences: Evo was in Spain on Wednesday, probably partly as a result of the spoof phone invite from a right-wing radio station. This ‘invitation’ opened the door politically for Zapatero to offer a courtesy invite which might have otherwise drawn a lot more political backfire from the PP right.
In fact, as the linked article makes plain, it is Spanish interests – especially Repsol YPF, Iberdrola and Red Electrica – that are most immediately threatened by Morales nationalisation plans. This makes yet more dog-in-the-mangerism from the PP (Rajoy was too busy to meet with him) very hard to understand. One more time they seem to be putting Party before Common interest, hoping to be able to ensnare Zapatero in Morales’ web for short term political advantage without thinking too much about the actual future of Bolivia, or of Spanish interests there.
Morales was also in Brussels yesterday, where he met, of course (who else), Javier Solana.
Oh, How Are The Mighty Fallen!
I can remember a time when Jeffrey Sachs used to do some pretty innovative work in development economics (and this one). Among other parameters influencing ‘take-off’ he used to think the demographic ones important. Increasingly this seems not to be the case. This podcast interview with Bolivian blogger Miguel Centellas and Jeffrey Sachs is not only informative as to what is happening in Bolivia itself, but also on how Sachs’ thinking is evolving. The three key issues explaining the ‘Bolivian Question’ are now: the fact that it is land-locked, the fact that there is huge inequality, and the fact that there is political instability. The first is a reality which only infrastructural investment can ammeliorate, but the second two involve addressing demographic issues if you want to move forward. At least that is my view. Incidentally hat-tip to Miguel Buitrago and also see this post and comments on the Ciao blog.
Incidentally, Miguel Centellas is very interesting, especially about the possible break-up of Bolivia, with the rich areas wanting to go it alone. This is being discussed in Spain, and some Spanish interests may well seek to promote this.
It’s not so much the rich areas wanting to go it alone, but individuals who stand to profit off of a secession. Nearly 1/3 of the Department of Santa Cruz voted for MAS and Morales. Under Morales’ plan, the Departments that produce will receive a bigger share of the profits. There are some very powerful forces and a lot of money at stake. The campaign for autonomy has been heavily financed by the oil companies.
Hi Eduardo,
“but individuals who stand to profit off of a secession.”
Yes, and if you look at what just happened in the Russia/Ukraine gas issue, you can see how this can work. The issue is I suppose why in some states those individuals can exert so much leverage, and why in others they can’t.
“The campaign for autonomy has been heavily financed by the oil companies.”
Well this means that Spain is very much involved. I still can’t work out how the line-up will be here (politically, I mean). It would be strange to find the PP giving the wink and the nudge to secession in Bolivia whilst being adamantly opposed to it in the context of Euskera, Spain.
Also this means in fact the EU has a lot of responsibility in the Bolivian context, strangely Sachs didn’t mention this part.
I definitely agree that Spain will be the country to convince of contractual changes.
I am not sure how much the topic of secession is in the air. Morales did promise the much-anticipated Referendum on Autonomy, which will be defined in the Constituent Assembly. Morales also visited the Civic Committee Pro Santa Cruz, which has contained elements which may have discussed secession and are pro-autonomy, and received a warm welcome and applause from the audience.
It is interesting to wonder whether this autonomy movement would grant autonomy to the region called el Gran Chaco, an area within Santa Cruz where most of the hydrocarbons is located. There is also a movement to make the Gran Chaco the country’s 10th Department.