I’ve been editing reports on Central and Eastern Europe for a bank that’s well regarded for its links to the region. (Since the reports aren’t in circulation yet, I won’t name it.) Its authors believe that Bulgaria and Romania will join the EU on schedule in 2007. They think that the delivery of Ante Gotovina to The Hague has helped Croatia’s chances, but they see the schedule nontheless slipping from 2009 to 2010, at the earliest.

In the summer of 2004, I laid down my bets here. I had all three joining in time to vote in the European Parliament elections in 2009. I think I’ll stick with that estimate.