Former UK prime minister Harold Wilson coined the phrase ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Well I don’t know about a week, but two months certainly is. Back on July 12 Doug Merrill was wryly posting about “Things You Can Do When You’re 20 Points Up in the Polls“. Maybe he’d now like to do another one about things you can’t do when you’ve just lost your overall majority. I think Merkel’s face tells it all, we’re now back with Fassbinder and deeply ensconced in ‘fear eats the soul’ territory. Whatever the outcome on Sunday, this will surely have to go down as one of the worst run political campaigns in recent history. As Tobias was suggesting to me at the weekend, maybe somewhere deep down inside they just don’t want to win.
A Fistful Of Euros
European Opinion
Winning is not everything. What you can do with the victory is also important. If you run on the platform of no tax increase and are forced to take that back within half a year, victory will become bitter.
And, at the risk of repeating myself, consider
1. statistical uncertainty
2. voting by mail
3. overhanging seats
What you can safely say now is that it is almost in the balance with the advantage still on the conservative side.
Maybe something as trivial as the weather will decide. I guess we’ll just have to await the results (or exit polls) if indeed they are published on sunday.
“What you can safely say now is that it is almost in the balance with the advantage still on the conservative side.”
I wouldn’t disagree. All I am trying to say is that she might have won easily, but…..
But a victory after announcing such cruelties is much more useful.
Consider. If she wins, she has a hell of a mandat. An outright victory of the present government is still practically impossible. If she loses she can either watch Schröder who couldn’t do what needs to be done with a stable coaltion selfdestruct or she heads a grand coaltion with somebody to put the blame on which can be ended at her discretion.