With the final result in Sweden’s referendum on the Euro being 56% no, 42% yes and 2% undecided the joint winners of the first Fistful of Euros prediction competition are Stefan Geens and our very own David Weman who both got closest, predicting a 54% no vote. It appears that the polls before Anna Lindh’s murder were actually quite accurate, both in predicting a ‘no’ victory and that it would be by a relatively large margin.
A Fistful Of Euros
European Opinion
And I was the idiot of the group.
This has probably been covered elsewhere – but what is an ‘undecided’ vote? Is it a spoilt paper or actually an ‘undecided’. If the latter what would happen if the ‘undecideds’ got over 50%? Particularly if there were more ‘yeses’ and ‘noes’.
The party leaders in Sweden promised that only the yes an no votes would be relevant. The undecided vote are a way for people to show that the appriate their right to vote even if the dont know how to vote.
I never did have a gift of prophecy…
The post votes have not ben counted yet.
Its 20 % of the total vote so the final numbers are not clear.
And the yes side will likely be overepresented in the postal vote.
Apologies – I’m used to the British system where postal votes are counted at the same time as the rest of the votes so I was assuming they had been counted.
A quick bit of back of the envelope maths – assuming that postal votes are 20% of the total, if 87% of them are yes votes, then the yes side could still win the referendum. Obviously not likely, but would be interesting, not least for how they’d report it.
On a more likely breakdown, it’d need to be about 55-45 in favour of the Yes side for it to end up around the 54-46 No victory that David and Stefan predicted.