Author Archives: Douglas Muir

About Douglas Muir

American with an Irish passport. Does development work for a big international donor. Has been living in Eastern Europe for the last six years -- first Serbia, then Romania, and now Armenia. Calls himself a Burkean conservative, which would be a liberal in Germany but an unhappy ex-Republican turned Democrat in the US. Husband of Claudia. Parent of Alan, David, Jacob and Leah. Likes birds. Writes Halfway Down The Danube. Writes Halfway Down The Danube.

Serbia almost has a government!

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It looks like Boris Tadic’s Democrats have hammered out a coalition with the small but crucial-for-a-majority Socialists. They tried to convene Parliament a couple of days ago, but the soon-to-be-opposition parties disrupted it. They’re trying again today.

If they do form a government, it would be after a mere 44 days of negotiation. This is, by Serbian standards, blinding speed; both the last two majorities took over 100 days to hammer out.

The negotiations for the new government have been shrouded, not so much in secrecy, as in disinformation and confusion. So it’s not yet clear who’ll have which Ministry, nor what prices are being demanded and paid.

The new government will, we are told, be more “pro-European”. Just what that means remains to be seen. It’s pretty clear they won’t be interested in meaningful negotiation over Kosovo; the best that can be hoped for is that they won’t continue the previous government’s policy of half-heartedly trying to stir up trouble in Kosovo’s Serb-majority north.

Still, watching with interest.

And then there were three

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Unexpected good news from Serbia: police have picked up Stojan Zupljanin, one of the four remaining war crimes suspects still at large.

Zupljanin is a pretty good catch. He was a medium-big fish: a police administrator in Yugoslav times, he became head of all police in the Serb part of Bosnia. He was deeply involved in the ethnic cleansing of Muslims and Croats, and then a bit later he had administrative authority over the detention camps where hundreds died and thousands more were beaten, starved and tortured. (A copy of the ICTY indictment against him can be found here.) You could maybe call him the Ernst Kaltenbrunner of wartime Bosnia.

There was a € 250,000 Euro award for his arrest; it’s not clear who, if anyone, is collecting this. In fact, the circumstances of his arrest are still murky. He was picked up in Pancevo, a suburb of Belgrade — it’s just across the Danube to the north. Continue reading →

Romania: strength to strength?

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So Romania’s economy grew by about 8% in the first quarter of this year.

To put this in context: Romania has been growing at a rate of around 6% per year nonstop since 1999. So — on paper at least — its economy has nearly doubled in size since then.

And you can see it. Bucharest bustles with traffic and new construction. People on the streets are visibly dressed better than just a few years ago. A large and growing middle class is serviced by European hypermarkets and superstores, including several Carrefours and an Ikea.

But… it doesn’t feel like a country that’s seeing Asian-style hothouse growth. Doing well, yes, but not that well.

I started a longish post discussing reasons for this (Geographical and sectoral imbalances, distribution issues) and also whether it’s sustainable (credit issues, balance of trade, of course demographics, corruption) but decided to throw this one to the commenters instead.

So: Romania. Good? Not so good? Sustainable?

Transnistria: a solution?

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A recent article over at Radio Free Europe suggests that Moldova and Russia may be getting close to a solution of the Transnistria conflict. (For some background on Transnistria, here are some articles I wrote last year.)

Now, RFE tends to be pretty Russophobe, so there’s a certain amount of mouth-breathing: Moldova has turned back to Moscow and away from the West! It’s going to become a satellite of Russia once more!

Well… perhaps. But in terms of settling the Transnistrian conflict, the deal described in the article makes a lot of sense. Continue reading →

Eurovision: can’t resist

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Liveblogging the first half hour, before I’m too drunk to continue.

Romania okay, will get votes but not a winner. Britain so-so, not that bad but not real Eurovision. Albania cute female lead singer in a cloak with bare midriff and a wind machine… okay.

Germany godawful! Geez — bad outfits, horrible singing, annoying song. Armenia very Armenian, strong female singer singing in Armenian (which sounds more impressive than it is; I know enough Armenian to know she’s singing the same two trite phrases over and over). Guys climbing all over each other — looks like an old Soviet circus troupe there.

Bosnia… what the hell. Bride outfits, fright wigs, laundry? Surreal, in a very Yugoslav sort of way, but not a contender. Israel, Boaz “the Yemeni nightingale” singing in mixed Hebrew and English — very handsome guy if you like ’em like that, and somehow very Eurovision-y. Shortlist.

The wife has made nachos. We have beer. Continue reading →

Eurovision 2nite ZOMG

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I’m tempted to liveblog, but I plan to drink, so maybe not.

Quick: in the few hours that remain, who’s your favorite? The bookmakers’ favorites are Russia, Ukraine and Greece. Me? I like those Latvian pirates, and hell, Romania’s always pretty good. Okay, a kind word for Armenia too. Bring it.

Who’ve you got?

Serbian elections, short version

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The mostly pro-European Democratic Party (DS) did surprisingly well — possibly because of a surprising last-minute from Brussels to give Serbia a “Stabilization and Association Agreement”. This was fairly blatant intervention on Brussels’ part, but it seems to have worked — at least in terms of getting more votes for DS.

Prime Minister Kostunica’s increasingly nationalist and obnoxious Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) tanked and burned, possibly because they overplayed their hand — they were all Kosovo, all the time, and pretty explicitly anti-European.

The Serbian Radical Party (SRS) got 28% of the vote, which is almost exactly what they got in the last election, and also the one before that.

The Socialist Party of Serbia (Milosevic’s old party, still kicking) did okay, picking up a few extra seats.

So the vote totals are: Continue reading →

The most important European emigrant of 2008

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I’ve been meaning to write about the Serbian elections, and the continuing slapfest over Macedonia, and some more about the frozen conflicts, and all that good stuff. But first:

Niko Bellic is Serbian.

He’s not just a generic Eastern European; he’s a Bosnian Serb who fought in the war as a teenager. The game’s backstory (which is revealed over many hours of play) involves his war experiences, and his issues with them pervade the whole game. Also, he seems to have come from rural Bosnia, so he’s initially pretty baffled by American urban culture.

So: is this a simple-minded decision, reflecting a vulgar stereotype of Serbs as violent thugs with a taste for organized crime, ignorant peasants who are thrown into culture shock in the modern world? Or is it an inspired choice, allowing the writers to make the protagonist character more complex and morally ambiguous, and position him as a “fish out of water” observer of the madness that’s modern American street life?

Note that Niko Bellic is not inherently evil. Nor unsympathetic. In fact, you can play him as a hero, albeit a rather noir one. (Yes, you can also go around killing people at random, but that’s your problem, not Niko’s.) And he’s presented as likable, and even — in the first few episodes — somewhat innocent.

On the other hand, providing the protagonist of Grand Theft Auto is not exactly a point of national pride. Niko is now the planet’s most famous Serb, and he’s a small-time crook with issues.

On the other-other hand, Grand Theft Auto! Come on! How cool is that?

So: good or bad?

Comments from informed readers welcome. N.B., you don’t have to have played the game to be “informed”, but you should at least read about it. Not hard, right? It’s the biggest and most famous video game anywhere ever.

Non-Serb commenters are encouraged to pause and ask themselves “what if Niko Bellic were [my nationality]?” Still cool?

What think you, commenters?

Macedonia: more stupid

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I’d like to come up with more thoughtful and respectful titles for these posts. But, well.

Stupid #1: In the wake of the NATO summit, and Greece’s veto of Macedonian membership, there’s now a boycott campaign in Macedonia against Greek goods and Greek-owned businesses. Since Greece is one of Macedonia’s largest investors and trading partners, and since Greek tourism is particularly vital to the economically weak southern part of the country, this is pure stupidity; it will cost Macedonia, one of the poorest countries in Europe, millions of euros while accomplishing exactly nothing but to further damage relations between the two countries.

N.B., this idiocy is an entirely private initiative — Macedonian citizens and NGOs are doing this on their own, without the government’s encouragement. On the other hand, the government isn’t discouraging anyone, either.

About the only good thing to say about this is that it probably won’t last long.

Stupid #2: last week, Greece’s Ministry of Transport prohibited Macedonian Airlines from landing in Greece because… wait for it… its name is “Macedonian Airlines”.

Greece has kept MA out for several years already, but this is the first time they’ve explicitly said it’s because of the name.

I’m pretty sure this is illegal under international aviation agreements, but I welcome comments from those better informed. (Alex?)

On the plus side, Greece’s Foreign Minister has said that Greece could “eventually” abolish visas for Macedonians. So, two steps back, one forward.