More Evidence of UK Slowdown

Unemployment continues a slow but steady rise in the UK. More eviedence of the slowing economy?

U.K. jobless claims rose for a third month in April and wage growth eased to the slowest in almost a year amid signs expansion in Europe’s second-largest economy is faltering.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefit rose by 8,100 to 839,400, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Wages excluding bonuses rose 4.1 percent in the first quarter, down from 4.3 percent in the month-earlier period.

Record levels of employment have helped underpin 51 straight quarters of expansion in the U.K., prompting the Bank of England to raise interest rates to the highest among the Group of Seven industrialized nations. The central bank last week trimmed its economic forecast and said a slowdown in consumer spending has “become more marked,” leading to speculation of a rate cut.

Deficits On The Rise

Things may be about to liven up a bit for Economics Commissioner Joaquim Almunia: it seems probable that the Italian deficit will be nearer 4% than 3% this year, and Portugal may even clock-in something of the order of an incredible 6 to 7%.

The worsening outlook in the two countries will rekindle the debate about whether they should have joined the single currency in 1999.

Germany had strong doubts during the 1990s about whether the economies of the ?Club Med? countries were ready. As part of the currency union, they are denied the traditional escape routes from economic trouble: devaluation or cuts in interest rates.

With their deficits already above the EU’s 3 per cent limit, neither government has scope to cut taxes or raise public spending.

Make no mistake: there’s a real and big problem looming here.

Working girls

Apropopos this post Edward’s post on fistful a couple of days ago, an observation. I find it remarkable how when people discuss these issues, (the working age population declining) no one ever talks about female participation in the work force. In some euro countries it’s pretty low, and an increase could make a real difference.

It’s weird.

Item

RT? News reports that the European Commission is expected to find tomorrow that Ryanair’s Charleroi airport deal with the Walloon government is illegal. Such arrangements will not be ruled illegal per se, but will be subject to significant limits of scope and time. We shall all have to wait to see what effect the ruling will have on the future of cheap air travel.