Morocco’s Offshoring Advantage

Following up on my Euromed post on Afoe, I see McKinsey have a report of Morocco’s potential as a services outsource base for the Spanish speaking and Francophone parts of the EU (registration required, but easy and worthwhile IMHO):

Morocco’s appeal includes wages for white-collar workers that are half those in France, a relatively high proportion of university graduates, and many citizens who speak French, the second language in the central region of the country. Furthermore, the cost and quality of its already respectable telecommunications infrastructure are set to improve further with the expected entry of Spain’s Telefónica as a second fixed-line operator. The country’s nascent offshoring sector, with an estimated current turnover of €85 million, includes some 50 mostly small providers that will employ a total of about 10,000 people by the end of 2005. Still, Morocco has captured almost half of the fledgling market for call centers serving French-speaking companies. In addition, Telefónica has established a captive call center in northern Morocco, where Spanish is the second language.

Much Ado About Nothing?

The European Commission’s has just published the latest set of EU trade trade figures. Among the surprising details are that overall EU textiles imports were little changed. China textile importas, of course, rose – by 40% – but this was offset by a decline in 54.4% (from Burma) and 41.4% from the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh also “saw significant falls, by 28.6 per cent, 15.1 per cent, 16.3 per cent and 9.3 per cent respectively”. (all data in value terms and for the first first eight months of the year). As the FT notes the numbers:

“are likely to confirm fears that developing countries are among the main losers after last January’s worldwide removal of textiles quotas.They have struggled to keep up with China’s large and modern clothing production facilities in a liberalised trading environment

“.

One To Watch in Russia

Russia’s by now well known demographic problems are not, IMHO, going to leave us in peace, the danger is always going to be there of a nasty political evolution which we will in the end have to sit up and take notice of. One of the many possibilities seems to take the form of the Rodina party which Neil Buckley and Arkady Ostrovsky write about in the FT today:

A blonde, Slav-like woman pushes a pram over the rubbish. Then two respectable-looking men arrive. One is Dmitry Rogozin, leader of the nationalist Rodina (Moth- erland) party. They order the men to pick up the litter, while Mr Rogozin’s companion asks menacingly, “Do you understand the Russian language?” On the screen, the slogan appears: “Let’s rid our city of rubbish.”

So runs a television advertisement for Rodina that may have got Russia’s fastest-growing political party banned from elections to the Moscow city parliament next Sunday. The city court ruled this weekend that Rodina’s advertisement incited ethnic hatred and the party should be struck off the ballot. Mr Rogozin is appealing to the supreme court.

The advertisement has been central to Rodina’s campaign for the Moscow parliament poll, the biggest test of its popularity since it unexpectedly won 9 per cent of the vote in national parliamentary elections in 2003.

Destination Unknown

While China seems to be badly in need of entering the ‘information society’, Russia seems to be going flat-out in the opposite direction:

Russia moved closer to an effective ban on many foreign non-governmental organisations as its parliament on Wednesday considered a bill that human rights groups have criticised as another step towards a “totally closed society”.

It’s A Flat World, Or Is It?

Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat, a personal account of the challenges and benefits of globalisation, has just won the inaugural Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award.

But Stephen Roach, writing in yesterday’s Morgan Stanley GEF, doesn’t agree. For him the world is ‘hardly a flat one‘.

With all due respect to Tom Friedman, there’s nothing flat about this unbalanced global economy. The image of a “flat world” is most appropriate for the endgame of globalization. In my view, that ideal state is decades into the future — if that. In the meantime, the global economy is distinguished far more by its disparities and tensions — and how the resulting imbalances are likely to be vented in world financial markets

.

More bad news for French people

The Head Heeb: A murder in Cote d’Ivoire

“While unsuccessful attempts continue to break Cote d’Ivoire’s political deadlock, the latest scandal to arise concerns the murder of a local gang leader by French peacekeepers”

Jonathan’s conclusion:
“Absent a political solution in Cote d’Ivoire, however, it is unlikely that this will be the last or only such case. The French are being dragged, unwillingly but inexorably, toward the point where peacekeeping becomes occupation.”

Oil Demand Expected To Stay High

The International Energy Agency have just published their forecast for oil demand next year, and its more of the same, with the emphasis on more.

Global oil consumption is expected to increase by 1.75m barrels a day next year to total 85.2m b/d, suggesting that a recent fall-off in demand is temporary… For 2006, the IEA revised its forecast of non-Opec supply down 335,000 b/d to an average of 50.3m b/d.

Delays and declining production in Canada, the UK, Asia and Sudan are expected to damp production growth next year. The massive damage to platforms and rigs caused by Katrina and Rita will be felt outside the US as well, increasing costs and causing rig shortages in places such as the Middle East, where two of the rigs damaged by Rita had been scheduled to move this year.

At the same time, the world’s thirst for oil shows few signs of abating, despite high prices. The IEA said that weakening of demand this month was likely to be a short-lived side effect of bottlenecks in distribution caused by the US hurricanes.

R&D: China To Overtake The EU?

Is China about to drive smartly past the EU and establish itself as a global R&D powerhouse? Somehow I doubt this, but nonetheless it seems to be the view of Janez Potocnik, EU commissioner for research, who is quoted by the FT as saying: The Chinese trend is extremely clear. If the trend continues, they [China] will catch us up in 2009 or 2010. The conditions for R&D in some emerging markets like China are improving and it is obvious that they [European companies] are transferring some of their investments there.

Really I don’t think that even Potocnik believes what he is saying. He is simply drawing attention to the fact that the EU needs to wake up and get it’s R&D act together:

“At present growth rates, the EU’s public and private spending on R&D is set to rise from 1.93 per cent of GDP in 2003 to 2.2 per cent in 2010, well short of the 3 per cent target agreed by EU heads of government as part of the 2002 Lisbon strategy.

R&D investment in China was 1.31 per cent of GDP in 2003 but is rising at a double-digit rate.”

The Share Project

Today is Sunday and I still seem to be having technical difficulties posting on AFOE, so I’m doing this as a test to see whether I can mange to do something on AFEM.

Firstly a link from the Economist Great Thrift Supplement (of which I’ll have more to say as and when I can post again) lead me to discover this conference on the economics of ageing which is being held in Venice from the 6th to 8th of October 2005.

Looking through the agenda and participants, I discovered that Axel Börsch-Supan is presenting a session based on data from the SHARE survey. SHARE is a Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe and you can find a complete book-length summary of the most recent findings at the top of the publications list.

Higher and Haier

Standards that is. The Chinese domestic appliance manufacturer Haier just got voted into the number one slot by FT readers in a survey which included quality, trustworthiness, innovation and management, together with branding. Haier recently hit the headlines when it unsuccessfully tried to buy Maytag – owner of the Hoover brand – now it looks like it may not have been worth the effort. Long live learning by doing.