Well, the South Ossetia conflict is going pretty badly for Georgia. The Russians appear to have cleared Tsikhinvali, and they’ve moved over six! hundred! armored vehicles into theater. Russian bombers have struck at a number of military targets inside Georgia, and the Russian Navy is maneuvering off the Georgian coast.
It’s increasingly clear that the Russians were very ready for this conflict. In fact it’s looking like the Georgians did exactly what Moscow wanted.
Was Georgia played? We’ll probably never know, but a couple of thoughts come to mind.
One, the Russians have put a lot of effort into intelligence in Georgia. Georgia has expelled various Russian citizens for being spies, but the real threat probably isn’t from Russians. Keep in mind that Georgia was part of Russia for almost 200 years, Georgians occupied a lot of high posts in the Soviet system, and a large minority of Georgians look back on the good old days with nostalgia and are not enthusiastic supporters of nationalist confrontation in general or Saakashvili in particular. So, there’s a pretty good chance that Moscow had the Georgian high command wired for sound.
Does that sound paranoid? Well, pause for a moment and recall the professional background of Russia’s current Prime Minister. Putin and the siloviki around him are intelligence guys, former and present. This seems like the sort of game they’d play, and play well.
Speaking of Putin, as blogger Wu Wei pointed out this morning, he’s the guy who’s flying into theater to oversee military and intelligence operations in person — despite the fact that this is officially, formally the responsibility of Russia’s President, not its Prime Minister. Interesting, no?
One last thought: it hasn’t gained any attention that I can see, but both Russia and Georgia are Orthodox Christian countries, and Russia is using Abkhazians (who are mixed Orthodox and Muslim) to open a second front against their Orthodox brothers. It’s not exactly your classic “clash of civilizations”.
(Okay, and speaking of silly geopolitical theories: Tbilisi has a McDonalds. That one was pretty much dead after the Kosovo conflict, but I think this should finish it off.)
My understanding is that there are very few Muslims amongst the Abkhaz – the Muslim Abhaz having decamped to the Ottoman Empire during the 19th century.
Well of course Russia monitors its borders. The US encirclement has hardly gone unnoticed. So intelligence activity would be on red alert.
As for, ‘doing what Moscow wants’, I disagree. This was an ill-advised stunt by Saakashvili. Your earlier thesis of a ‘snatch and grab’ is quite plausible. Don’t forget he has very well-trained and well-equipped troops, no US expense spared. Militarily it was feasible. What was underestimated was the speed and decisiveness of Russia’s reaction.
Russians are good chess players and Putin in particular thinks a few moves ahead. Certainly he’s miles ahead of Saakashvili, who will be the big loser.
There’s a good article on the role of the Siloviki in the conflict by Yulia Latynina.
Yes, Georgia was played.
All this is giving me a major case of mixed emotions. In the past, I’ve criticized Saakashvili’s hard-line nationalism and his refusal to meet the minority regions’ demands for autonomy. If Georgia is going to be reunited, it will have to be on a federal plan with some kind of fair settlement (albeit not necessarily a return to the status quo ante) for the mutual ethnic cleansing during the civil wars of the 1990s. All this still holds true, and it’s pretty clear that Saakashvili has badly mishandled the situation.
On the other hand, the Russian intervention is pure pretext. Russia has been preparing
for this outcome for years, and the proof isn’t only in its state of military readiness along the border. It’s also the provision of citizenship to most of the South Ossetians and Abkhazians, the South Ossetian president’s public support for union with Russia, and the fact that the Ossetian militia – which wouldn’t say boo without an OK from Moscow – staged repeated border provocations for the week before the Georgian invasion. This is both a land grab and a message to all Russia’s other neighbors.
I don’t think Georgia can avoid losing the war, but it’s important that Russia doesn’t totally win the peace. The best outcome we can hope for is probably one that gets both sides’ troops out of South Ossetia, puts neutral peacekeepers in, and brings everyone into internationally supervised political-settlement talks. But that would take more diplomatic skill than I suspect this administration has.
Copydude, “speed and decisiveness”? Nobody’s ready to launch a combined-arms assault on short notice as a reaction to a provocation . . . unless they’ve already arranged to provide the “provocation”.
Was Georgia played? At worst, Saakashvili saved Tsar Vladimir the Chekist the effort of staging a Gleiwitz incident.
Georgia: played? No. Georgia violated? Yes. The Russian 58th Army had already been prepositioned for the offensive. UN observers have been reporting hostile activities by Russian forces and their surrogates with increasing frequenc since April, some of which has appeared in the news.
The Georgian offensive on Tsikhinvali, South Assetia was a a defensive response to the Russian offensive invasion into South Ossetia. Any Russian invasion column crossing the Caucusus Mountains into the plains of central Georgia must first pass through the city of Tsikhinvali in South Ossetia. The only way of halting a Russian invasion column crossing the mountains on this route requires a blocking action at this city before the invasion forces can reach the plains and flank the smaller Georgian forces.
Once it became clear to the Georgian Defense Ministry from their intelligence sources that the Russian 58th Army was going to invade South Ossetia and perhaps the rest of Georgia, Saakashvili and the Georgian Defense Ministry’s only reasonable hope of delaying or halting the Russian invasion column was to setup a blocking position at the city of Tsikhinvali and shout for urgent help from the international community.
The Russians, knowing full well what the Georgian defensive response would have to be, setup the obligatory incidents needed to provoke the Georgian defensive response and Russian disinformation campaign.
Unfortunately, too many news sources are now disseminating the Russian disinformation and misrepresenting Georgia’s defensive actions.
Cool! The notion of “we had to attack because if we didn’t, the others would have attacked first!” gambit! Same one that the U.S. used against Iraq, “we have to attack them first because of scary scenario X” (the fictitious WMD in the case of Iraq).
Give it up. Georgia got suckered into thinking they could take out the Ossetian militia with their newly-trained army, and did exactly what Russia was prepared for them to do. But claiming that Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia was a “defensive move” rather than an attempt to reconquer a breakaway province is silliness that even Georgia’s own propaganda ministry hasn’t floated (yet).
Honestly I don’t think Russia had nor has any plan to invade South Ossetia or Georgia. They’re all too happy about the present status quo, which allows them to keep pressure on Georgia, and undirectly the West. They’re playing the noble role of peacekeeping force and at the same time slowly contributing to the transformation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia into parts of the Russian Federation (providing citizenship, currency, investments,…). Time plays for them, but against Georgia. That could be why Georgia decided to act. It’s doubtful they had hope Russia wouldn’t react (planes and missiles over its territory in the recent past were clear warnings) but they knew they had more to win than to loose:
1) destruction of the “capital” Tskhinvali, so that it takes a lot of ressources for it to function again;
2) show the world that Russia is not the neutral peacekeeping force it pretends to be there;
3) show the Russians that the same military confrontation could happen in Abkhazia at the time of the Olympic games in nearby Sochi, which would be very bad for Russia (President Saakashvili himself said the timing of the attack was not a coincidence).
That’s why I wouldn’t say Georgia was played. Will it get any benefit in the end from this crisis remains the question…
Agree with Bodtux. You forget that georgians started to fire, withdrawn their peacekeepers from their zone a day before starting offensive. So it was not a surprise for Russia. Even more, about 16 hours passed after georgians attacked Tskhinvali (what a cynism: to call for a cease fire and immediately to attack) before Russia decided to help ossetians. You look at the situation without knowing all the facts and make decisions.
About the passports: according to 1991 indepedency act of Russia, every citizen of former USSR had a right to become a citizen of Russia and to get a russian passport. Speaking about the crisis you forget about people from Abkhazia and South Ossetia who were being killed by georgians in early 90s and now after the wars for independence after many years of de-facto independence you want them to live in Georgia with Saakasvili who cannot bring peace and prosperity to his own nation.
Badtux Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 7:57 am
“Cool! The notion of “we had to attack because if we didn’t, the others would have attacked first!†gambit!”
Now you are just repeating the Russian black propaganda. The Russians and South Ossetians attacked first, and they ignored the Georgian ceasefire as a deeliberate provocation. The Georgian intelligence had to know that the Russian 58th Army was massed in the assembly areas on the northern border of South Ossetia in preparation for the invasion of Georgia. It is physically impossible for the Russian 58th Army to have arrived in force at Tskhinvali within the first 24 hours of the battle without having been mobilized and positioned in their pre-invasion assembly areas at least days or more likely weeks before a planned Russian invasion.
The Georgian intelligence services have access to the commercial satellites and aerial reconnaisance assets necessary to observe Russia’s massing of the invasion forces. Once it became clear that the Russian 58th Army’s invasion schedule had begun, Georgia had to make the decision whether to (1) deploy the Georgian army on a defensive line which would easily be flanked in the plain along the southern boundary of South Ossetia or (2) in a blocking position at Tskhinvali where the Russian motorized forces would find it very difficult and costly to flank the numerically inferior Georgian defenders.
What would you do if you knew the Russian 58th Army was about to invade you no matter what you did or did not do about a ceasefire? Stay in the plain and get flanked by the 58th Army, or fight a delaying action in a blocking position in the foothills for as long as possible and shout for help from the international community while you slowed the Russian invasion?
“The Russians and South Ossetians attacked first, and they ignored the Georgian ceasefire as a deeliberate provocation.”
Who told you this, Saakashvili?
During this conflict, he is always lying. For example: he always vows to cease fire and continue attacking. He told about bombing oil-facilities, but then BP told there were no.
He told about bombing Tbilisi, but there were no. He told about destroying Roki tonnel, but it was not true.
Also there were no information from the georgian media about russian armies concentrated near Ossetia. Isn’t it strange?
And can you find any lie in “russian black propaganda” which later was confirmed as a lie?
Always analyze all the news, all the information. Then you will be able to understand something.
Is it normal to block russian TV and web-sites with domain .ru for georgian citizens?
Also you forget who is attacking. Russia is not attacking Georgia and not going inside georgian territory. Russia is trying to push attacking georgian forces out of South Ossetia region which is de-facto independent of Georgia for many years and must be defended by the peacekeepers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia
P.S. Russian information agency RIA-Novosti is under attack (en.rian.ru)
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“Who told you this, Saakashvili?”
No, and it certainly wasn’t a Russian or Soviet state censored news media either. Nice set of Soviet/Pravda disinformation fairy tales you have there. Poor touch, however, with the bit about the Russian 58th Army just happening to materialize out of thin air at just the right day to punish all of these evil Georgians. It really is entirely too much to swallow, you know. You are supposed to make fake propaganda at least minimally believable. You cannot hide the Russian 58th Army on the border without people noticing, not even in the mountains.
Just logic suggests that Georgia did not have good or any intelligence.
To spend 15 hours levelling civilian houses was poor strategy. Any military strategist would have blown the tunnel first if there was a prospect of a Russian response. It could have been done by stealth with a few saboteurs, prior to the Georgian offensive.
Unless Saakashvili is a complete nutter – though it’s beginning to look this way – we can only assume he was given some idea that there would be a NATO response or that the Russians simply wouldn’t dare.
Well, he’s been disabused of both silly notions.
To Delta Whiskey Papa:
You are talking about some misterious media which knows everything but you do not name it. Actually I suppose this media has no journalists in the conflict area. Isn’t it strange?
I was looking at the conflict according to BBC and Reuters news agencies. Actually the pure information is much closer to Interfax or ITAR-TASS news agencies information. What is Soviet or Pravda? Are you stuck in soviet times?
And you really think that “russian black propaganda” is more powerful than western? Funny…
Russia is attacking inside Georgia, the Poti port was attacked and so was Gori. Both with video from BBC and CNN. There have been bombings on the outskirts of Tbilisi.
Get your head out and listen to the news. Russia has gone after Georgia proper attacking oil stucture, ports , rail, media towers in attmept to damage the importanty structures.
2RAH:
If you look more closer on what BBC is telling about bombing you’ll notice that they say all the places were military objects. Military bases Marneuli, Vaziani (near Tbilisi). Three military bases near Gori.
“Earlier, Georgian officials said Russian jets had bombed a military airfield close to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. ” BBC
“”Three bombs were dropped on a military airfield belonging to Tbilaviastroi plant. There were no casualties,” Shota Utiashvili, the head of the Georgian Interior Ministry’s information department, told Reuters.
The plant has been producing Sukhoi Su-25 ground fighters since Soviet days.” Reuters
“Russian forces launched an airstrike against a military airfield near the Tbilisi International Airport early Sunday, Georgian officials told CNN.” CNN
And CNN never was an unbiassed media. Also CNN and BBC were showing “Grad” weapons of Georgia attacking Tskhinvali during telling that Russia is attacking Georgia. Also CNN says about 2000 people killed but don’t mention that this information is about ossetians killed by georgians.
copydude Says:
“August 10th, 2008 at 1:35 pm Just logic suggests that Georgia did not have good or any intelligence.”
No doubt the rest of the world will find your concept of logic amusing as they note how irrational it is for you to imply the Georgians are incapable of noticing the movements of the Russian 58th Army.
“To spend 15 hours levelling civilian houses was poor strategy. Any military strategist would have blown the tunnel first if there was a prospect of a Russian response. It could have been done by stealth with a few saboteurs, prior to the Georgian offensive.”
Sure, now you want the readers to believe the Georgians were at the same time too much of the knucledragging and stupid anthropoids to understand simple military strategies and the world’s most brilliant tacticians capable of ousting a battalion of Russian peacekeepers and battalions of South Ossetians in a few hours, all without damaging any buildings. Any more fairy tales you want to entertain the readers with?
“Unless Saakashvili is a complete nutter – though it’s beginning to look this way – we can only assume he was given some idea that there would be a NATO response or that the Russians simply wouldn’t dare.”
“Well, he’s been disabused of both silly notions.”
It is very revealing to see how you find the Russian invasion and violent annexation of the sovereign territory of Georgia to be an acceptable act. No doubt other readers will also, and judge accordingly.
Victor Says:
August 10th, 2008 at 1:53 pm To Delta Whiskey Papa:
“You are talking about some misterious media which knows everything but you do not name it. Actually I suppose this media has no journalists in the conflict area. Isn’t it strange?”
There is nothing mysterious about the media, and I barely mentioned it at all. There are better sources than the news media.
“I was looking at the conflict according to BBC and Reuters news agencies. Actually the pure information is much closer to Interfax or ITAR-TASS news agencies information. What is Soviet or Pravda? Are you stuck in soviet times?
And you really think that “russian black propaganda†is more powerful than western? Funny…”
Yes, it’s understandable how someone like you would have a tough time trying to distinguish between the West’s socialist dominated news media and the socialist/Communist state dominated news institutions of the former Soviet and post-Soviet governemnts.
Who says Soviet times are gone? Putin is the former head of the KGB secret police of the Soviet Union. South Ossetia currently has a KGB service which is not an institution to be found in non-Soviet democracies. Putin is obviously leading this Soviet style invason very much like the former Party Chairman did from the Politburo. The Russian news media has been systematically compromised and taken over by Putin’s administration and government. FSB agents kidnapped, badly beat, and injured a Webmaster who Putin’s administration wanted silenced. The Russian Foreign Minister’s statements certainly sounded about as racist and bizarre as any statement which ever came from a Soviet Foreign Minister in the days of Stalin and Beria.
Russia’s actions may gain a couple of Georgia’s districts which it has not controlled since Soviet days, but Russia has now forfeited any trust it may have even remotely regained since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 or any of the other worst days of the Soviet regimes. This is truly a Phyrric victory of monumental proportions for Russia, and not one to be forgotten by Europeans and Russia’s immediate neighbors for generations to come.
Victor Says:
“August 10th, 2008 at 12:31 pm Also you forget who is attacking. Russia is not attacking Georgia and not going inside georgian territory.”
False and a lie. Russia is attacking Georgian forces by air, naval, and ground attacks throughout Georgia, and not just in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia has ordered the Georgian armed forces to stand aside or be attacked as the Russian Army attacks and captures the Georgian city of Zugdidi.
“Russia is trying to push attacking georgian forces out of South Ossetia region which is de-facto independent of Georgia for many years and must be defended by the peacekeepers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia
P.S. Russian information agency RIA-Novosti is under attack (en.rian.ru)”
False and a black propaganda lie. Georgia is an internationally recognized sovereign state, and South Ossetia is not. South Ossetia is the sovereign territory of eorgia. It is not the sovereign territory of Russia or South Ossetia. The only reason South Ossetia has a de facto independence from Georgia is due to the armed intervention of Russia. Russia has declared its intention of capturing the Georgian city of Zugdidi and thereby dismember the sovereign state of Georgia at Zugdid, Poti, and Gori, in addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Victor Says:
“August 10th, 2008 at 12:31 pm Also you forget who is attacking. Russia is not attacking Georgia and not going inside georgian territory.”
The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia is attacking the city of Zugdidi inside of Georgia and ordered Georgia’s armed forces to stand aside or be attacked. This is naked Russian aggression.
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“The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia is attacking the city of Zugdidi inside of Georgia and ordered Georgia’s armed forces to stand aside or be attacked. This is naked Russian aggression.”
What is the source of this information? Don’t think this is true. You cannot just say it without citing anything.
Just now there was a full live translation of UN Security Council on Russian TV. All the members of the Council admit that Georgia attacked South Ossetia not vice versa.
About compromising: we can say the same about non-russian media, why not? You really think US or European media is OK?
Just in this conflict I see russian media is more honest. You’ve just got used to the soviet or KGB cliche. May be you also think that all the russians wear ushankas and drink vodka all the day long? Do you know how many people in Russia now are trying to watch Georgian or western TV, look at livejournal diaries from Georgia to find out, to compare. And see that there is no or less lie in russian media.
At least, as I’ve already said, russians have a free access to the information in TV or Internet. They can watch CNN or BBC or Euronews anytime they want. And georgians no because all is blocked (the source is several livejournal diaries of georgians and Interfax agency).
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Even BBC lies about International Airport of Tbilisi was bombed. It is working normal and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb just arrived there.
After analyzing many media, I can say that, of course from my point of view, the most clean and honest is Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Georgia/idUSL768040420080810
Nothing surprizing however, it is more economical than political media and deal with facts.
People, both sides have been set up.
The Georgian military has been built up and trained by the US and Israel, ostensibly in order to fight the terrorists lurking in nearby gorges. To the tune of billions of dollars for such training? I think not. The truth is that the US and Israel were using Saakashvili and his racist cronies as a thorn in the side of Russia and as guards for the BTC.
The current operation on the part of Georgia attacking South Ossetia and Russia counter-attacking has been planned on both sides for months (and in general, for years). The Georgians were given the GO order by the US, with their army backed by US and Israeli mercs, specifically in order to get Russia bogged down in a border war for several months. With Nagorno-Karabach about to flare up again and Ukraine flexing its muscles about the Black Sea Fleet (causing Russia to have to bring in naval resources from elsewhere), they expect Russia to be too busy to do anything when they start the blockade of Iran here in a couple of weeks.
I expect events in western China are based on the same issue, to tie China down in its own provinces while we (US/UK/France) blockade Iran and then Israel pounds it with bombs.
Georgia is a feint. Of course the Russians knew what the Georgians were getting ready to do; Putin is Czar Spook, after all. They even made sure that the Georgians were unstable on their feet and not really thinking straight when they finally went in, and made sure that they were too busy pounding on the annoying Ossetians to remember to block the tunnel… pure, sweet chess moves there.
As for the BTC, the US doesn’t care what happens to the Europeans, and the UK and France have certainly been given plenty of assurances of sweet, easy oil loot once Iran falls (you’d think they’d have learned from Neocon promises before the Iraq…)
If Russia is on the ball (and Putin is no slouch), provided Ukraine doesn’t get pushed into the mess, I think it should be over quickly. Quickly and easily enough for the Russians to come to the aid of Iran? Time will tell…
Lots of conspiracy theories here.
The one about the feint to disorientate the Russian Fleet has some mileage. Ukraine has indeed cut off the parking bays in Sevastapol since they last sailed.
Hmmmmm . . . . the plot thickens.
Georgia’s main problem is having such a young, testosterone-influenced leader. The sooner they get rid of this phallic-thinker, the better-off they will be. He obviously doesn’t have a clue. He looks desperate in all his interviews these past two days.
This whole thing is a win-win for Russia, but i agree with the sentiment above, that time was already giving Russia the upper hand; they didn’t actually NEED this, it was just a gift. Now all Russia has to do is get Georgias Javakh Armenians to revolt and gain ‘autonomy’ for their region, and Russia will be able to effectively threaten the BTC pipeline forever, as well as expand its influence in Armenia and Iran.
Georgia’s hands are definitely not clean – they really do mistreat the Ossetians – indeed, South Ossetia isnt even a georgian administrative division anymore.
Conspiracy theories indeed. Ascribing anything to the current U.S. government other than bluster and brute force is an over-analysis of the current U.S. government’s capabilities. These are the same people who messed up the Iraq occupation, are losing in Afghanistan to a bunch of goat herders and poppy farmers armed with nothing more potent than a RPG-7, managed to utterly screw up the evacuation of a major U.S. city which even today three years later is largely rubble… I think there’s many people just unwilling to admit that we have people in charge of a nuclear-armed superpower who aren’t qualified to bag groceries at the local grocer, much less run vast conspiracies.
Russia has now forfeited any trust it may have even remotely regained since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 or any of the other worst days of the Soviet regimes.
Nobody in the region trusts Russia anyhow, so I fail to see what they’ve lost. Georgia wasn’t seeking NATO membership because they trusted Russia, after all…
Badtux,
You speak as though those events (Iraq, Afghanistan, New Orleans, etc.) are all failures. Nothing is further from the truth; people just forget the TRUE goals. Neither Iraq nor Afghanistan were ever intended to be allowd to reach a level of organization, safety, or stability to become independent. The Neocons want to retain control of those regions through direct military force. Noe the fact that they have failed to attain portions their true goals in those areas (the oil bill and partitioning in Iraq and the pipeline across Afghanistan) has more to do with the fact that they misread the willingness of locals on the ground and other nations to resist their imperial ambitions.
As for Katrina and New ORleans, it’s been clear from the start that the Neocons and for a long time even the moderate Republicans and Democrats just don’t give a rat’s tail about people in this country, let alone elsewhere. The rich got out, as they could; and later the rich went home and used their influence to make sure that many of the poor folk that could get out couldn’t get back.
Never mistake malice for incompetence; though they have that in spades, too, you have to remember they are not playing from the same book as the rest of us, and their goals are not the health and well being of this nation, but of them and their own.
Do I have my tinfoil hat on? Hell yes! If these guys weren’t conspiring so much, why do they need to keep even the most innocuous information secret! Everything they do smacks of treason…
Freeper WDP said
False and a lie. Russia is attacking Georgian forces by air, naval, and ground attacks throughout Georgia, and not just in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia has ordered the Georgian armed forces to stand aside or be attacked as the Russian Army attacks and captures the Georgian city of Zugdidi.
Well, of course. If they only attack the Georgian military in South Ossetia they are never going to win. It would be like if the US only attacked Serbian targets in Kosovo; would we have gotten the Serbs to capitulate then? Of course not. As for Zugidi specifically, it’s quite an honorable thing for the Russians to do, to give the military a chance to step aside; they didn’t have to, they could ahve just started pounding their positions and take the town over their dead bodies. Is that what you would rather they did?
False and a black propaganda lie. Georgia is an internationally recognized sovereign state, and South Ossetia is not. South Ossetia is the sovereign territory of eorgia. It is not the sovereign territory of Russia or South Ossetia. The only reason South Ossetia has a de facto independence from Georgia is due to the armed intervention of Russia. Russia has declared its intention of capturing the Georgian city of Zugdidi and thereby dismember the sovereign state of Georgia at Zugdid, Poti, and Gori, in addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Now who’s spewing propaganda? The same could all have been said for any of the breakaway Yugoslavian republics, and a hundredfold for Kosovo, yet I’ll bet you cheered every American bomb that dropped on the Serbians, eh? Not that I’m defending the Serb nationalists, mind you; they were even bigger thugs than the Kosovars. There were no heroes on either side there. But don’t dish out what you can’t eat yourself. South Ossetia had de facto independence long before Kosovo.
Hell, by your philosophy the US should still be a freaking British colony, as we should never have accepted assistance from France (and we never, ever would have been free had we not had France’s assistance in the Revolutionary War).
As for Georgia being dismantled and de-fanged, so what? That’s exactly what we did to Iraq, and they were never a threat to the US, merely to our “interests” (oh, and Israel, of course, somehow).
I find your complaints about Georgia’s independence (perhaps) being undone after their attempts to stifle others attempts to gain independence less than convincing an argument for the righteousness of their cause. Besides, all the Russians are doing in this case (unless some fools rachet it up to more dangerous levels) is gaining leverage to make the Georgians recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia; now each region will have a buffer zone from further Georgian attacks (Zugidi, Gori) and Georgia’s navy will stop taking potshots at the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Poti). Frankly, the occupation of Poti is for the Georgian’s own safety; if the Georgians got lucky and sank a big Russian ship and killed hundreds, Putin would have to occupy the entire country or his own people would get angry. If you think there have been casualties now, you haven’t seen anything if the bear gets really stirred up.
So far the Russians have acted with kid gloves by comparison to what they could ahve done. They could have turned the entire BTC into so much scrap metal; they haven’t. They could ahve levelled Tbilisi with missiles and bombs; they haven’t. They could have killed eery last man defending Zugidi; instead, they gave them a chance to back off. By Russian standards, they have been “playing nice.”
You guys have a lot of interesting opinions, and your details on these various countries’ military capabilities are pretty much spot on. You seem to miss the main clue here, and to find it, all any of you have to do, is look to international news sources, instead of blindly relaying the crap from MSNBC, CNN and NY times. This assault was initiated by Georgian military led by American Special Ops forces, who, as some of you might know, have bases all over that region.
There are in fact massive casualties as they tell us… mostly of civilians and Russian army who are forced to stand down (they can, if they had to, wipe out Georgia, faster than US’ initial sweep through Iraq), because all US wants is an excuse to start another cold war. With the War on Terror crumbling, the NeoCons need another “enemy” for America to fight. They have way too much world opposition to mess with Iran at this point, so they moved to a smaller target – Georgia.
We already sacrificed a butt load of personal liberties and let Bush wipe his ass with our constitution. If Russia reacts and, let’s say, points it’s nukes at US, it will only give the NeoCons more reason to militarize this country and have the population live in fear of an impending disaster and give up whatever freedom we have left.
Wake the fuck up people.
Just because CNN claims to have the most comprehensive world news coverage, does not mean they do. The liberal media is, after all, run by the same people who lobby (AKA buy out) the government to do whatever is asked of them and report whatever they are told to report.
Call me an asshole for being blunt and rude, but all I ask is that you check out the world news, dig around a bit, it won’t take long. The internet is swarming with it.
G
http://engforum.pravda.ru/showthread.php?p=2522202#post2522202
Just to make my case, this took me 2 minutes to find, and I am looking through another half dozen articles as well. Reporters from the world over, visitors and passersby caught in the middle, all saying the same thing about the massacre in Ossetia. Read and weep.
I also want to take this time to have a moment of silence for my idealized vision of Obama, which now melted and ran down the drain. Selling out to Exxon and now backing offshore and alaska drilling… the dark side is strong.
Gera, if you still believe ‘pravda’ what a real value your ramblings might have…?
Like I said, I was looking through a half dozen reports from the world over, and they all say pretty much the same thing. This is America, and it counts as one vote, even though u have 20 major newspapers and mass media circuits covering this, they all parrot the same shit that came from one mouth, the government. So if you have a half dozen countries saying this, vs one contradiction coming from US, I tend to lean towards the majority. Ain’t that how they play it here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6AWvqHqPQ8
American living in Ossetia, caught in the middle. Hear it from his mouth.
Just a couple of items:
1. There are about 75,000 people in South Ossetia, about 1/4 of them ethnic Georgians. Anyone who thinks this is a viable independent state is smoking crack. That Russia can make this assertion with a straight face is a testament to their theatrical talent, or to the credulity of their audience. Guernsey has a much better claim to independence, with nearly as many people, its own language, and a physical separation from both Britain and Europe.
2. Georgia is a lot closer to Europe than it is to the United States. The US will be watching with keen interest to see whether the firmness shown in Bosnia is repeated here. NATO? Don’t make me laugh; the Georgians might as well have tried to ally with the Holy Roman Empire. Maybe the US can make some separate arrangements with the British, the Norwegians, and the Danes, who seem to understand freedom innately; and the former Warsaw Pact countries, who understand tyranny by bitter experience.
3. No doubt the anti-war demos will commence soon. Any minute now. Just you wait. The paint is drying on the giant puppet heads even as we speak. Tremble, Putin! Beware the GLBT stilt-walkers of doom!
4. Russia extended citizenship to the South Ossetians, even though they were in Georgia, and even though they are not Russians; and so Russia claims the right to intervene on their behalf. Nice trick. Would anyone else like to try it?
By the way, did the Russians extend the same privileges in Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Brighton Beach … Got any Russians in your countries? Did somebody say Sudetenland?
This is pathetic on so many levels. Thank God for the Atlantic Ocean.
Gera, it’s clearly seen that that person is speaking other things (look at articulation).
Do you think we will buy on Russia Today’s propaganda?
BTW. Where are all these killed people? They say about something of 1600. I’ve seen no one so far throughout all reports form Tzchinvali.
It’s hard to believe for killing 1600 and more civilians in few hours attack, even if all the time Georgians would be selectively killing innocent people, despite the fact that they must have been fighting the enemy troops and likely had to watch out by themselfs.
This figures came out to scene just right after the event. How did they count it so quick? Otherwise is was well planned provocation.
Normaly in such situations the death toll is increasing by the time, as people find more and more dead people in ruins. In this situation figures are getting updated to smaller amounts. How that could be?!
The truth about the war in Georgia: http://war.georgia.su/
Note that .su domain stands for Soviet Union.
I was trying to find any reaction of the USA government on killing peoples in South Ossetia by Georgians. It looks like world noticed only Russian response. IMHO it was a provocation and Russians both it. Do you really believe that Georgians strike without USA approval? USA promised support and they provide it informational and diplomatic. I’m really sorry for Georgians and for Russians and especially for peoples who were killed. They are all victims in big game.
I absolutely concur Andy. The problem is that it is not just these guys or those guys. It is a conglomerate of countries doing this shit. Mostly UN – America, Israel and England running the show… everyone else just tags along with their kneepads and lube. And now they want to expel Russia from UN. Haha, Yea… most on Europe runs on Russian gas. Let’s see how fast UN runs through their reserves without Russia supplying them. No wonder they’re trying to grab the resources in Ossetia.
Just for information: According for latest independent research (Amnesty Intl) there were 44 civilian Osetians and Georgians killed throughout the whole conflict in S.Ossetia region (Tzchinvali). 150 were wounded. There were ~20 and ~50 respectively at the first day of Georgian attack. All of them were killed or injured during a strong cross-fire from both sides.
Now, how Russia will deal with that? This was their main reason to start a war. It is in a 100-fold difference with Russian official propaganda, which officially led for starting the war.
Amnesty international was institutionalized by the f@$king UN. See that is the problem – most people refuse to believe that SO many countries would be playing this game, but I’ve said it before and I will say it again: you have to look at UN as a single entity, one organism (in this case, cancerous). Referencing Mitch’s comment (although he was trying to say the opposite), UN is the new Holy Roman Empire. Strategic bases world over, with option of nearly hassle free military deployment.
They did not count so quick, they estimated, and now that number of casualties is climbing as they dig through the rubble.
And also, if you guys don’t like me referencing anything outside of US for information (which makes it hard to find anything unbiased), check out Alex Jones @ prisonplanet.com
He’s in Austin, Texas, that’s pretty much as conservative as you can get. He does say some stuff that I do not agree with, but he’s all over this Russia/Georgia conflict.
Instead of withdrawing from Georgia as required by the ceasefire agreement, Russian forces are advancing deeper into Georgia on 18 August 2008 in preparation for the second phase of the preplanned invasion and occupation of Georgia.
A Russian armored column is advancing down the road from Bojormi to cutoff Georgia’s line of communications through the border with Turkey.
The Russian 19th Motorized Rifle Regiment is being resupplied and redeployed with forward ammunition supply points in assembly areas closer to Tblisi.
SS-21 short-range ballistic missiles have been moved into range of Tbilisi. Air and missile attacks will bombard the Georgian airbase at Maneull.
The Russian 73rd Guards Airborne Regiment is redeploying for the next phase of the campaign with elements targeting the Georgian military base at Vasiani following a heavy bombardment by air units and missile units. Airborne elements are assigned the task of blocking the line of communications between Tblisi, Vasiani, Rustivi, and Azerbaijan.
The motorized forces are assigned the task of fixing the Georgian forces in defense of Tbilisi as the more mobile armored forces encircle Tblisi around the north and east of Tbilisi on the approach to a linkup with the airborne elements at Vasiani. From Vasiani the combined arms forces are to proceed to the airbase at Marneull to sever all air, rail, and road links to Armenia and elsewhere. If Tbilisi has not already fallen by the time Marneull is captured, the full encirclement and seige of Tbilisi will be undertaken by D+7, about August 27th-29th.
President Medvedev met with senior Russian and South Ossetian commanders at Vladikavkaz today and finalized preparations for the upcoming offensive to capture Tbilisi and the remainder of Georgia. The offensive is tentatively scheduled to begin with the pretext of another fabricated incident and provocation to justify a Russian abandonment of the ceasefire within the next 24 to 72 hours, if final approval is given.
Final approval will be forthcoming after the outcome of the NATO summit on Tuesday is disclosed with some NATO members unwilling to commit NATO to the area of conflict in Georgia.
However, in the event that NATO decides to intervene with strength, the renewed offensive operations may be postponed to permit diplomatic efforts to sway enough EU members for the offensive operations to proceed within the next 7 to 10 days. If diplomatic efforts fail to bring about the necessary hesitation from the EU members, the offensive will be canceled and a partial withdrawal of forces will be undertaken, albeit very slowly.
Pingback: www.nielubie-ruskich.pl/wordpress/ Nie Lubie Ruskich Blog poswiecony konfliktowi w Gruzji-Georgia.Najswiesze informacje!!.
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