Because it’s not like the rest of politics stops so that Europe can reach a consensus on the economic crisis.
President Obama sent a secret letter to Russia’s president last month suggesting that he would back off deploying a new missile defense system in Eastern Europe if Moscow would help stop Iran from developing long-range weapons, American officials said Monday [March 2] . …
The Obama letter was hand-delivered in Moscow by top administration officials three weeks ago. It said the United States would not need to proceed with the interceptor system, which has been vehemently opposed by Russia since it was proposed by the Bush administration, if Iran halted any efforts to build nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.
The officials who described the contents of the message requested anonymity because it has not been made public. While they said it did not offer a direct quid pro quo, the letter was intended to give Moscow an incentive to join the United States in a common front against Iran. Russia’s military, diplomatic and commercial ties to Tehran give it some influence there, but it has often resisted Washington’s hard line against Iran.
Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday [March 3] rejected any suggestion that Moscow would “trade or exchange†in policies in order to dissuade the US from installing an anti-ballistic missile system near its borders in Eastern Europe.
Pulling Strobe Talbott’s book off the shelf, I recall that Russia-Iran consumed a surprising amount of presidential attention back in the day. Add in that Iran could be useful in Afghanistan, and the puzzle gets an extra layer of moving parts.
Is Iran that useful in Afghanistan if you can get a deal with Russia?
Iran would be very useful in Afghanistan since they are on less than friendly terms with the Taliban – to be charitable. They were a key ally of the US in 2001 supporting supplies to US allies and cutting them off to the Taliban (unlike Pakistan) and were rewarded by Bush with his stupid axis of evil.
However, there will be no deal with Russia because Russia is seizing an enormous opportunity handed to them by the US’s Iraq adventure (out of which there is NO easy way) and the Afghan war. Russia wants a big, new global understanding with the US that includes, among other things, public acknowledgement of its control of the near-abroad (and that, folks, includes Ukraine), detailed arms treaties limiting any advance in anti-balistic systems which could unbalance the nuclear parity now in effect and want an end to western interference and support to the near abroad. Further, the missiles that Russia was threatening to place in Kaliningrad have barely been tested, were never deployed and, importantly, can’t be fitted with nuclear warheads. However, Russia is a master at propoganda, just like her predecessor and just like the predecessor’ predecessor and tries to appear stronger than she is. Successfully. However, because the EU is at its gas supply mercy and particularly because Germany wants no confrontation of any sort with Russia, the new Russian empire will have a free ride for the next few years. Thank’s Bush for removing any credible balance to Russia with your bankrupt and dangerous policies.
No deal between the US and Russia on Iran. Russia does not want or need it.
This is quite an interesting situation. One of the largest concerns with removing the missiles involve Russia’s surrounding countries. Could they be made somewhat indefensible or isolated if they are removed? Even worse, they could end up in serious trouble if Russia and Iran pay no heed to U.S. interests–which is certainly plausible. This is not a deal to be made lightly.
I watched an interesting video summarizing different opinions at newsy.com. It’s worth looking at:
http://www.newsy.com/videos/u_s_russia_trade_off/
Russia is deploying new generation of ICBM (like SS-27) which are maneuverable on both boosting and re-entry stages. No current or near-future interceptors are capable to shoot it down. See, for example, here:
http://www.missilethreat.com/archives/id.15/subject_detail.asp