There’s nothing better for livening up all this dull, wonkish chatter about the German elections than a bit of CDU-bashing. So, how shall I bash them today? Oh, I know! How about this: they’re a shower of xenophobe racists.
Yes, yes; not exactly news, is it? What is news, though, is that the Union appears to value xenophobia even more than it does winning elections.
Earlier in the week Doug Muir posted on the generally negative attitude most Austrians seem to have towards EU enlargement. Others in comments have been suggesting that it is important not to go soft on human rights issues in the case of Turkey’s application. Well……
According to the French newspaper Le Figaro (as reported in EUPolitix) “Croatia forms part of the total bargaining on Turkey.” (that’s a quote from an anonymous diplomat btw).
Continue reading
Earlier this year, Eurobarometer started asking members what they thought about future EU expansion. The results (which can be found here, as a pdf) were pretty interesting.
52% of Europeans support membership for Croatia, while only 34% oppose it. (War criminals? What war criminals?) And 50% support membership for Bulgaria. But only 45% support Romania coming in. Which is a bit embarrassing, given that the EU has already firmly committed to Romanian membership, even if it might be delayed for a year.
Still, the Romanians can take comfort; they’re well ahead of Serbia (40%), Albania (36%) and Turkey (dead last, with 35% of Europeans supporting Turkish membership and 52% against).
Where this gets interesting — in a Eurovision-y sort of way — is when you start to break it down by country.
Continue reading
I don’t know if anyone else has noticed, but there seems to have been a deafening silence on outcomes following last weeks ‘informal’ EU foreign ministers gathering in Newport. The only thing I have been able to find was a piece from Radio Free Europe which informed me that ‘No News Is Good News‘. Possibly, but this doesn’t explain the reasons for the blackout.
Meantime all the headlines are stolen today by the results of a survey of EU opinion on the accession question conducted for the German Marshall Fund.
Continue reading
While EU foreign ministers are tucked nicely away in Newport (my paternal grandmother was born there) for their ?Gymnich? summit at which trying to get Turkey accession negotiations off the ground on October 3 will be one of the top priorities, and while MEPs pass the buck to the Commission and the Council on the thorny problem of Turkey’s interpretation of a customs agreement, back in Turkey itself best selling author Orhan Pamuk has been charged by a public prosecutor for “denigrating” the nation in comments about Turkish history which appeared in a Swiss newspaper several few months ago. And what did the comments refer to: the Armenian genocide, about which, of course, Turkey is still in denial. Randy McDonald has the story:
“Myself, I’m on the record as believing that the Turkish refusal to recognize the Armenian genocide is rooted in Turkish insecurities dating back to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, when it seemed quite possible that Turks might lose a viable homeland. This is understandable even if it’s still repellent; this can be worked around.”
“The prosecution of Pamuk, however, is, besides being a crime in itself, a spectacular mistake. A country that prosecutes one of its most famous writers because he agreed with the historical consensus that, yes, there was an Armenian genocide really doesn’t strike me as the sort of country capable of living up to the requirements of European Union membership. I very much doubt that a European electorate already predisposed to reject the idea of Turkish membership in the EU will be more generous than me. Tell me, please, how exactly “Turkish identity” is compromised by the recognition that a previous Turkish state committed genocide? Denial’s one possible explanation, but it’s not a sufficient explanation.”
“For the time being, all I’ll say is that Turkey’s recognition of the Armenian genocide in some form should be a prerequisite for Turkish membership in the European Union. I wish Pamuk well in his upcoming court case–hopefully that will change something in his homeland.”
Let me just second Randy here: recognition of the Armenian genocide should be a prerequisite.
French political life is always full of surprises: while some seem past their best (de Villepin), and others are positively wilting (Chirac), new stars constantly appear in the galaxy. In this case Europe Minister Catherine Colonna. Her agility on the Turkey issue, and her sound sense on the ECB make her stand out against what is admittedly a not especially ‘brilliant’ background. Still, maybe when Sarkozy gets over his marital issues he’ll start to give her a run for her money.
On the ECB
Philippe Douste-Blazy: ?Everyone can see that the euro today remains an unfinished project, for lack of a seriously co-ordinated economic policy between members of the eurozone,? he said. ?Let us not leave economic and budget policy to the European Central Bank, let us not leave it just to the European Commission, to people who are not elected.?
Catherine Colonna: ‘elaborated’ on her senior minister’s remarks, saying the eurozone’s policymakers should focus more on citizens’ main concerns jobs and growth while respecting the ECB’s independence. ?Fiscal harmonisation is another important avenue that must be pursued.?
On Turkey Negotiations
Jacques Chirac: “Turkey needs to recognise Cyprus ….the continuing failure to do so poses political and legal problems and is not in the spirit expected of a candidate to the union?.
Catherine Colonna: ?When it comes to Turkey, its future with the EU accession or another solution can only be written at the end of a long process….?Between now and then, the rules have been set out: if the conditions set are met, the negotiations can begin.?
[The observant among you may have noticed that two earlier post-ettes have suddenly disappeared. The even more observant will have noted that they are now over at our sister blog – A Few Euros More – where they should have gone in the first place. I’ve picked up some bug or other and am a little groggy today, I hope it doesn’t show up too much in my argument :).]
Now, yesterday I focused on some relatively trivial examples of inflexibility on the part of the Commission, decisions I argued that did not really serve the interests on the Union itself. Today I have two more to add to the list (one in this post and one in the next), but these have a rather greater import.
Firstly there is the question of formally opening negotiations with Turkey, negotiations over an accession which would take place ten years from now at the earliest. However in recent days it has become evident, to say the least, that not everyone is happy with the conditions as already laid down for the start of negotiations with Turkey.
Continue reading
With Turkish accession one of the most important issues facing the European Union, people interested in the question could do much worse than read these two recent, and reasonably short, books that focus on the country: Crescent and Star
Continue reading
One of the few real IMF success stories, the Turkish economy continues with what Serhan Cevik calls its spectacular normality:
The Turkish economy is now in its fourth year of uninterrupted growth, with an average real GDP growth rate of 7.5% per annum. Indeed, the trend growth rate surged from 3.9% in the 1990s to 5.8% in the post-crisis period and to an impressive 7.8% last year. And we project 7.2% growth for Turkey in 2005 and 6.8% next year, compared with average OECD growth rates of 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Obviously, this is an unusual performance for a country that had long failed to keep the economy close to its potential on a sustainable basis. In fact, the growth rate of real per capita GDP decelerated from 2.3% per annum in the 1970s to 1.7% in the 1980s and then to 1.3% in the 1990s leading to the 2001 crisis. However, with prudent fiscal and monetary policies and structural reforms, real per capita income increased by 18.9% on a cumulative basis in the last three years, and should remain on an above-trend growth trajectory in the coming years.
Far away from the hassle and turbulence of Turkey’s EU membership application is that other Turkey, the one that is growing and expanding, the economic Turkey. This time it’s cars:
“With a cluster of carmakers and part suppliers, the Turkish automotive sector has reached a critical mass and become an integral part of the global network of production bases. The country?s geographic location and demographics make it an ideal production (and distribution) centre for the mature European market as well as emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa. Not surprisingly, the annual growth rate of automotive exports accelerated from 6.7% in the 1980s to 30.8% in the 1990s and to 42.6% in the last five years. Accordingly, Turkey now exports over US$10 billion worth of motor vehicles and parts to 170 countries, and there is no sign of a slowdown in the near future. The sector raised its international sales by 53.7% in 2004 and 43.9% in the first five months of this year, generating 20% of the country?s total export earnings. “