Orange Update

In late October, Ukraine re-privatized its Kryvorizhstal steel works in a live auction watched, apparently, by millions on television. The action was a reversal of the privatization that had taken place under the previous government. The old sale would have brought in $800 million. The new sale, to Mittal Steel Germany GmbH, will net $4.8 billion. Broadcasting the auction was a clear sign of transparency, a way of bringing crucial deals out of the back rooms and away from suspicion.

As the Wall Street Journal Europe noted on October 26, that sum is 20 percent of Ukraine’s annual budget. The sale increased total foreign investment in Ukraine since independence in 1991 by 50 percent.

Ukraine still has a long way to go to live up to the ideals of the Orange Revolution, and old structures are hard to root out. But this sale is one of a number of positive signs. Here’s hoping for more, as the first anniversary of the revolution approaches.

Orange, Yes, But Which One?*

When we last looked in, Viktor Yushchenko had been inaugurated, Viktor Yanukovych had grudgingly conceded, and orange was the color for all would-be world-changers.

Unfortunately, while we weren’t looking, Ukraine’s cabinet was collapsing into in-fighting and neglecting to do the things that people put them in office for. On the positive side, an investigation into the Gongadze affair was making, you’ll pardon the word, headway.
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Vlad Says That’s Bad, Lads!

The Guardian today carries yet another article by Jonathan Steele on how badly the Ukrainians have hurt Vladimir Putin’s feelings, here. Putin, at a “two-and-a-half hour meeting with academics and journalists in the Kremlin” apparently had this to say:

” One of the parties cannot be cornered by means of unconstitutional activities. Otherwise other people in the region can say ‘Why don’t we act against the constitution?'”

Indeed. But can someone please remind the man that there is nothing at all constitutional in rigging the elections, poisoning the opposition and murdering annoying journalists? It also stretches credibility that he seems to think he’s responsible for upholding the constitutions of states in “the region” (which is presumably a rebranded variant of “the near abroad”), or rather, upholding their governments against their constitutions. If that wasn’t enough, though, what about his next line?

“He said corruption was blooming there and people around the next president have started to enrich themselves. We said this before and no-one wanted to listen to us.”

Ye gods, Russia as the stalwart defender of probity in public office. I think that probably qualifies him for this week’s Orwell nomination back on my own blog. But can anyone make sense of this paragraph?

He spoke with repeated anger about what has been happening in the former Soviet republics. “We cannot go back to the Russian empire. Only an idiot can imagine we’re striving for that.”

Well, those two lines are entirely mutually incompatible, no? The point of all this is, of course, that first of all he doesn’t care at all about anybody’s constitution, and secondly he still sees himself as being in a position to lecture his ex-colonies, although he has learned to deny it. After all, what does all this stuff about other countries’ constitutions mean practically? What does he think would have happened if “we” had listened to him?

Either that “we” would have pressed the OFF switch and all the people on the Kiev Maidan would have gone away, or, I suppose, that we would have supported a Tiananmen solution. Fantastic, and more evidence that the EU’s Nachbarschaftspolitik needs very great care. (Don’t forget, either, that Steele has previous for being feted at the Kremlin.)

Andorre, null point, or…

Monaco is voting!

We were going to write something inevitably snarky about the Eurovision song contest (Hello from Minsk!) but Manolo’s Shoe Blog has pictures that are worth many, (Three points for Malta!) many, many thousands of words. (Good evening Amsterdam! Hello Kiev! This is the Netherlands calling!)

They’re here (Our twelve points go to … Turkey!)

here (Good evening Rejkyavik!)

and here (Latvia three points!).

Good thing it only happens (Moldova eight points!) once a year.

(Bon soir Bruxelles!)

(Thank you Finland!!)

UPDATE: Greece is the word.

UPDATE 2: Yushchenko presents the award. Even a cheesy show can have a cool moment. Thank goodness he wasn’t wearing an orange tuxedo.

Garton-Ash on Ukraine

There’s a long article on Ukraine by two Tims, Garton Ash and Synder, in the New York Review of Books.

Regular readers of this site and Garton Ash’s Guardian column may not find anything revelatory, though I found this rather startling:

…the very large sums poured into Yanukovych’s campaign by Russian sources, which have been estimated in the Russian press to amount to some $300 million

but anyway it’s an interesting summary of events leading up to the election, and what the implications might be.

Not your average Boom-bang-a-bang

Two of the topics that produced some of the most posts on Fistful last year – the Eurovision Song Contest and Ukraine’s Orange Revolution – have come together. Of course, we already knew that this year’s contest would be in Kiev but now Ukraine has chosen ‘Razom nas bagato!’ (Together we are many!) by Greenjolly, an anthem of the Orange Revolution, as their entry for the final. It should help to contribute to what will no doubt be an interesting night.

For a more serious look at the Orange Revolution, Blood and Treasure has some thoughts on ‘freedom as a brand management strategy.’

Waiting for Extase

The always readable Timothy Garton Ash has another good column in today’s Guardian discussing how Europe’s inability to speak with one voice on the international stage weakens its impact. As he points out, the sheer number of people waiting to meet with President Bush this week help to show what the problem is:

Who knows what is Europe’s agenda for the world? The question always attributed to Henry Kissinger – “You say Europe, but which number should I call?” – remains posed. The baffling multiplicity of people the American president had to meet in Brussels, including heads of large-minded small countries and small-minded large countries, as well as those of competing institutional parts of the EU, not to mention Nato just up the road, shows how far we still are from an answer.

However, the situation isn’t quite as bad as that might make it seem. On some issues, there is unity and focus of action:
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Orange Shadows

How some of the siloviki went over to Yushchenko and, in their account, helped prevent a crackdown in Kiev on or around November. One of the reasons the orange revolution didn’t end in blood red.

Difficult to check, of course, and naturally the services want to ingratiate themselves with the new regime, but consistent in its outlines with what we were hearing at the time, too.

While wet snow fell on the rally in Independence Square, an undercover colonel from the Security Service of Ukraine, or S.B.U., moved among the protesters’ tents. He represented the successor agency to the K.G.B., but his mission, he said, was not against the protesters. It was to thwart the mobilizing troops. He warned opposition leaders that a crackdown was afoot.

Simultaneously, senior intelligence officials were madly working their secure telephones, in one instance cooperating with an army general to persuade the Interior Ministry to turn back.

The officials issued warnings, saying that using force against peaceful rallies was illegal and could lead to prosecution and that if ministry troops came to Kiev, the army and security services would defend civilians, said an opposition leader who witnessed some of the exchanges and Oleksander Galaka, head of the military’s intelligence service, the G.U.R., who made some of the calls.

Read the whole story before it disappears into pay-per-view.

Reckless Predictions, Pt. 2

EU vote boosts Ukraine membership hopes

by George Parker in Brussels, Raphael Minder in Strasbourg and Tom Warner in Kiev

Financial Times, 13 January 2005

Ukraine’s long-term hopes of joining the European Union were boosted on Thursday when the European parliament voted overwhelmingly to open the door to possible membership. …

Although the parliament’s vote was non-binding, it was a surprisingly strong endorsement of Ukraine’s membership aspirations by the EU’s directly-elected assembly and the clearest sign yet to Kiev that the EU’s door is open.

Deputies voted by 467 votes to 19 in favour of resolution calling for Ukraine to be given “a clear European perspective, possibly leading to EU membership”.

Reckless predictions, looking better and better.