Monthly Archives: November 2004

Ukraine roundup

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I’ve just got time for a quick roundup of the latest developments in Ukraine.

First, and most importantly, the Supreme Court has suspended publication of the election result while it considers the case brought to it by Yuschenko. This is probably more routine than a sign of any clear intent on the part of the Court, but it does indicate that they’re taking the complaint seriously and are not dismissing it out of hand, as happened with a case Yuschenko brought earlier in the week, I believe.

Also, according to The Periscope, Kazakhstan, China, and Armenia have recognized Yanukovych – probably unaware of the Supreme Court decision to not decide today.

Second, the EU/Russia summit took place today, though there doesn’t seem to be anything concrete coming out of that yet. The official report from the summit is here (pdf file) and it’s more interesting in what it doesn’t say about Ukraine. Note that almost every other issue mentions refers to the EU and Russia jointly agreeing whereas Ukraine was merely the subject of an ‘exchange of views’. I think we have to wait for a statement from Solana (or possibly Barroso or Balkenende) to find out more. On the same note, Solana’s address to the Foreign Relations Committee yesterday can be foung here (also a pdf)

The situation in Ukraine itself appears to be developing into a standoff – Victor and friends keep posting at The Periscope and it seems to be following the same pattern as the last couple of days – rumours of movements of troops and miners, coupled with announcements of official support for Yuschenko from various locations. The latest news is that the Deputy Economy Minister has resigned and said he is ‘with the people’ and rumours are that Yanukovich is trying to make sure he has the loyalty of the rest of the Cabinet, particularly energy ministers. Maidan continues to post reports of military commanders stating they are with Yuschenko.

The protest in Independence Square continues, of course, while strikes are taking place across the country in support of Yuschenko.

There are also reports that Lech Walesa has tried to negotiate, but hasn’t achieved anything. He’s supposed to be holding a press conference around now, but there are no reports yet.

Via Harry, PORA now have an online petition up which they’re asking people to sign.

And quickly around the blogs – something new from Neeka, Le Sabot has photos and background.

Update: (Tobias 18:11 CET) One more night to come up with a solution. In other good news, after having been approached by numerous government officials as well as cnocerned citizens, lieutenant-general Mykhaylo Kutsyn, officer in chief of the Western Operational Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that ?[his] actions are directed towards unquestioning fulfillment of the law and Constitution of Ukraine and [he] officially declare[d] that divisions of the Western Operational Command will not fight their own people.?

That is certainly good news. Although I am not at all familiar with the Ukrainian military organization – I assume, given the East-West cleavage, it would be important to get a similar stament from the other Operational Commanders. (via Maidan.net)

Update: (Tobias, 19:24 CET) Jamie of bloodandtreasure has a useful link to a Ukrainian military guide at globalsecurity.org.
Apparently, Ukraine has three regional military commands, Western, Northern, and Southern (see this map). Kyev is situated in the Northern military command.

Update: (Tobias, 21:17 CET) The showdown may have begun. Victor Katolyk reports that, following a “declaration of truth” by several hundred Ukrainian television employees, several tv stations have begun broadcasting “real” news. While several hundred Policemen appear to have pledged allegiance to the people, and former Deputy Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko apparently declared the beginning of a seige of Presidential Administration, Cabinet of Ministers, and the Parliament, there are also reports of pressure on Supreme Courst judges and their families to rule in favor of Mr Yanukovich.

While Russian President Putin, speaking at the EU-Russian summit in The Hague, remained firm that the victory of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was “absolutely clear”, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende finally clearly rejected the results as forged: “The election did not meet the international standards. Therefore the EU is not able to accept the result.” Maidan.net reports that the European Parliament will hold an emergency session devoted entirely to the situation in Ukraine next week.

It could become a serious problem that President Putin has gone further than even the Ukrainian administration in “ruling out” any kind of negotiation and accusing the West of stirring violence in Kyev. Moreover, for the moment, Russia seems not concerned about developing an exit strategy, but is fueling the flames – according to EUbusiness.com, “the president of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma lower house of parliament, Konstantin Kossachev, also made clear on Thursday it was time for Russia to defend its territory, after a period of letting the West ‘back such or such a leader of such or such a country of the post-Soviet space, as long as they were pro-Western and therefore anti-Russian'”.

Such an official statement about Ukraine being Russian property will likely be counterproductive should it become widely known in Ukraine.

Update: (Tobias, 22:33 CET) The FT wonders if Ukrainian Oligarchs, who have supported Yanukovich and clearly stood to gain from his victory, are now beginning to think about hedging their bets.

Most remain wedded to Mr Yanukovich, especially the barons of his political heartlands in the industrialised Donetsk region. But a few are beginning to wonder whether Mr Yanukovich still offers the best protection for their interests.

Many are also coming under pressure from employees who are openly supporting Mr Yushchenko – putting up posters in factories and workplaces and taking time off for demonstrations.

Update: (Nick 0005 CET) The Times has a map showing the breakdown of the votes in the elections

Havel: Everyone’s Common Ground

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It?s interesting that American conservative bloggers like Glenn Reynolds and Jonah Goldberg are touting the idea of making Vaclav Havel the UN Secretary General. I like the idea ? but for what I suspect are completely different reasons than the Instapundit crowd.
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Central Bank Blues

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In a fairly ironic and cryptic post yesterday I alluded to the potential influence of the Russian central bank on the value of the euro. This situation is not to be taken lightly. The euro today hit another record passing the 1.32 to the dollar mark. At the same time business confidence index readings from Germany and Italy indicate that those who need to export are none too happy about the future.

A Russian move to raise euro reserve holdings from 30% to 40% of the total, mentioned as a possibility in an FT article yesterday, could have profound consequences:

Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York, raised the prospect of a potential domino effect: ?Talk of central banks readjusting their reserves to encompass a greater euro weighting has been rife in the foreign exchange markets for quite some time, along with speculation that OPEC members may shift to euro-denominated oil sales.

?A dam can only take so much pressure. Russia?s stated intent to review its reserve weightings, in favour of the euro once again, could well lead to similar announcements by its counterparts across the world.?
Source: Financial Times

So the danger is that if Russia initiates others may follow. A fall in the dollar’s value of say 30% over 3 years would be one thing, but a rapid fall of this kind of magnitude precipitated by a shift in central bank holdings over a limited time horizon would be quite another. This is definitely one to watch.

Miners

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I’m writing from Bucharest, Romania. The Romanians haven’t shown a lot of interest in what’s happening in Ukraine. Oh, they’re following it, but it doesn’t seem to grab their imagination. Part of this, I think, is because they’re distracted — they have a big election of their own, for Parliament and the Presidency, this weekend. And, too, Romanians consider themselves “part of Europe”, while Ukraine is seen as outside. But whatever the reason, they don’t seem too interested.

Except for one detail.

Apparently Yanukovic and his supporters have been busing thousands of coal miners into the capital. Every Romanian that I’ve talked to has commented on this.

Why? Well, you have to know a little recent Romanian history.

Bucharest, 1991:
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Yukos And The Russian Oil Card

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The Financial Times is reporting that all senior executives of the Yukos oil company have left Russia. The FT suggests they fear for their safety amid a flurry of arrest and search warrants issued by Russian prosecutors for oil company managers.

?There is not a single member of the management board left in Russia at the moment,? a person familiar with the situation said on Wednesday. Yukos, which has been crippled by tax claims of over $20bn (?15bn) and faces the forced sale of its main production asset, is now managed by remote control, according to the person.
Source: Financial Times

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The morning after

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Well, it’s been another quiet night in Ukraine, but the demonstrations have continued again today – the live feed shows that Independence Square is full of people again with hundreds of orange flags flying.

There have been a lot of updates on Maidan overnight, mainly of protests and rallies around the world, and still the rumours about Russian troops continue. The main news there, and at the Kyiv Post are of the call for a general strike by Yuschenko.
Louise Ferguson has an email from a Ukrainian academic that’s being forwarded around the world which makes for interesting reading. The key line, when talking about the election fraud is ‘I couldn’t remember such things even during the period of Soviet regime.‘ (the full text is below the fold)
BBC News has a short rundown of the faults with the election process identified by the election observers.
Elsewhere the EU/Russia summit will go on today with Ukraine on the agenda – it’ll be interesting to see what comes out of there, and I suspect much will remain on hold until that is over. However, the EU’s mediators should be in Kiev by now, which means things will be going on behind the scenes that we won’t notice.
On the ground, there are blog updates from Neeka, Obdymok, several from Le Sabot, Foreign Notes and continuing posts from Victor at the Periscope.

I’ll try and update the news as often as I can today, but I’m a lot busier today than I was yesterday, so hopefully some of my Fistful colleagues will take up some of the slack. I think it will be quieter today – though rumours will still fly – mainly because all the action will be taking place behind the scenes either in The Hague or Kiev.

Update: A couple of peope have asked for background information on the ethnic and nationalistic divisions in Ukraine. Well, like many issues of national identity in Europe, the answer is ‘do you want the long story, or the really long story?’ but for an overview there’s good article in today’s Independent and Wikipedia is a good web source – you can start with their Ukraine page and follow links from there.
In my roundup earlier, I also forgot to mention that Harry’s Place has links to articles on attempts by the current Ukrainian administration to get support in Washington. Harry also links to a good Timothy Garton Ash article in The Guardian.
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Calm Before A Storm?

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This is an intersting night. Checking news sites and blogs one last time before getting some sleep – reading about Mr Yushenko’s declaration that the “struggle had only just begun” and rumors about a $21,6m bribe to the head of the election commitee, I can’t fight the impression that the quiet winter night the live stream from Kiev is showing me as I am writing these lines is indeed the calm before something even stormier than what we have witnessed by wire since the election’s preliminary results were announced.

Like Nick in his summary below, many people are beginning to try to put the events into perspective ( for example The Economist, PBS), to broaden their historical and political knowledge of Ukraine, to locate similar events that may shed some light on the the driving forces of the orange revolution (working title): what are the underlying interests, what are the fundamental trends, and what are the chaotic elements in this situation – where the rules have run out, and the locus and balance of power can be tipped by any rumor. The Carnegie Endowment’s Michael McFaul stated in an interview today “that somebody has to blink now or there’s going to be war”. Who knows. But what are the chances of a fire when several hundred thousand people are smoking at a gas station?
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One last roundup

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As it gets close to midnight in Ukraine, I’m going to make this (hopefully) the last roundup of the day. Obviously, if anything major happens between now and me going to bed, I’ll come back.

First things first – Victor Katolyk is still posting at The Periscope, but his comments are now on a new thread. There are lots of stories of Yanukovich supporters arriving in Kiev by buses and trains.
After his earlier comments prompted my ‘Uh-oh’ post, Obdymok has updated with some observations that put a more positive spin on the situation:

always hate to get it wrong, but the drama of the central election commission (cec) session and the sight of the goons, thousands of them, walking towards the cec shocked me.

flying punches is what i was thinking about, at least, when i watched the coal miners and thugs file by, for over five minutes, from my window on the 5th floor.

the feeling changed when i got a chance to get there and talk with them.

ordinary bodies shipped in. paid. but they are people. human.

pictures >here, and later a couple of interviews, boring ones.

ivan tavhen, an out-of-work 42-year old father of two from makeevka, donetsk oblast, said he was told it was a one day trip.

“i’m not infatuated by yushchenko and can use an extra hr. 200,” he said.

thousands of the big men, strong men, some wearing hard hats, others wearing cossack gear, just hung around the central election commission sipping vodka and eating pieces of sausage.

they are going back to their buses now.

meanwhile, on maidan, the party is in full gear.

they girls in wearing orange scarves did not get as scared, as i did at first.

the donetsk guys called them “chuchely,” but with a rough kind of affection. kinda like in magadan.

be brave! molodtsy!

From yesterday, but Embassy has interesting article on the background to the situation.
Maidan continues to report and mentions Yuschenko calling a general strike. This also gets mentioned in the latest BBC report which is slightly more concerning than others as it notes how both sides have referred to possible ‘civil conflict’. The problem comes, I think, in that both sides seem willing to talk, but don’t seem to be able to agree on an agenda for talks and indeed who these talks should be between. However, the hope has to be that tomorrow external mediators such as Kwasniewski and Walesa will be able to get them through the ‘talks about talks’ stage.
The Kyiv Post has an AP article about Putin – Putin increasingly walks alone – which looks at the ramifications for tomorrow’s EU/Russia summit and beyond. However, the fact that the summit is taking place tomorrow does make me hopeful that there won’t be any crackdown in the next 24 hours as Putin would not want that as a backdrop.
Elsewhere blogwise, Europhobia has a new post covering some of the same issues I am here, while the Head Heeb looks at the position of Ukraine’s Jews.

A few thoughts from me below the fold:
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Powell speaks

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US Secretary of State Colin Powell has addressed the Ukrainian situation in a statement. He said the US does not accept the results of the election. Reuters has a summary (check the State Department website later for a full transcript):

Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Wednesday the United States did not accept the results of the disputed election in Ukraine as legitimate and called for immediate action.

Powell urged Ukraine’s leaders to “respond immediately” or there would be consequences in the relationship between the two countries.

His comments echo – even down to the strong warning of unspecified ‘consequences’ those made by Barroso and Solana for the EU earlier today and I think indicates that there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes so that the EU and US show a united front on this issue. As I’ve noted in the ‘Uh-oh’ post below, the signs are that there will be negotiations between the two sides (interestingly, the Kyiv Post reports that Lech Walesa is on his way to aid negotiations) and the prospect of violence is thankfully shrinking.

Update: The State Department has now made Powell’s full statement available. I’ve copied it below the fold.
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The Constitution Is Being Blogged.

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For all the uncertainty surrounding the events in Ukraine, they have – once again – made clear to which extent Europe, and our conception thereof, is changing. While EU spokespeople make every effort to reiterate in the run-up to the EU-Russian summit that nothing than a partnership is on the table, even longer-term, it appears as if the continent’s agenda has already been changed – by the events.

The list of contentious issues is indeed increasing – but luckily, there are some people who are attempting to provide the context. As we here at afoe have not paid too much attention to the French referendum debate yet, I am only too happy to announce that a new group blog is taking care of it: Publius l’europ?en will provide news, analyses and commentary about the European consitution from a French point of view – in French.

I think it was during the French conservative debate in the run-up to the Maastricht-treaty referendum that people began to notice that Jaques Chirac had held every possible opinion, yet never one of his own. Maybe he should have read more blogs ;).