Monthly Archives: November 2004

Phonecalls of last resort?

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German Chancellor Schroeder, who is known to have a good personal relation to Russian President Putin, and who, according to news reports”, had told the German Bundestag earlier today that he remains “firmly convinced, firstly that the Russian president wants to develop a democracy [in Russia?!], and wants to do so out of inner conviction”, talked to President Putin on the phone this afternoon. Now, Thomas Steg, deputy press secretary of the German government announced with reference to said conversation “that both Chancellor Schr?der and President Putin agreed that the conflict regarding the outcome of the Ukrainian Presidential elections must be solved legally and that all must be done to avoid any outbreak of violence. It is now of utmost importance for all parties to arrive at a peaceful solution through political negotiations.”

Clearly, given Russia’s general attitude and earlier uncertainty aobut Russian special forces having mobilised in Kiev, the important keywords from President Putin are “peaceful” and “negotiations”.

Uh-oh

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From Obdymok:

just saw thousands of berkut police from kharkhiv and donetsk, as well as thousands of coal miners, start walking in down lesi ukrainky blvd. in the direction of the central election headquarters.

lesi ukraini leads to bessarabsky rynok and the start of khreshchatyk, which is filled with about 100,000 yushchenko supporters.

i think a riot is imminent.

From Victor:

According to korrespondent.net, in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, people are being arrested for supporting Yushchenko.

My own comment: This is what is awaiting Ukrainian people, too. This is coming. All legal ways of resolving the situation have been exhausted.

And Maidan:

We have just received an information that, in case some sort of a coercive scenario will be used against the opposition, the police and army units supporting Yushchenko will defend the protesters in downtown Kyiv and secure public order.

They resolutely affirm that the law-enforcers brought to Kyiv from the regions that have voted for Yanukovych, in spite of the fact that a part of them has a strongly negative view of the opposition, will never turn against their colleagues, since the corporative solidarity is more important for them than their political preferences that in fact do not have a profoundly principled character.

However, the authorities might send groups of gangsters against peaceful protesters, but the honest law-enforcers intend to treat them as the law requires, including the use of firearms in cases authorized by the Law.

But a ray of hope from Victor:

According to podrobnosti.com.ua, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovych states that will not accept the results of the elections until their legitimacy is proved. He stated this at the sitting of the National Council on Coordinating State and Regional Authorities.

If Yanukovich doesn’t accept the Presidency – for now, at least – then the hope of a negotiated solution remains alive, possibly Yuschenko’s proposal for holding the runoff election again. I suspect that both sides are waiting for the EU mediators to arrive, so let’s hope that everyone on the streets can remain calm. Reuters also report Signs of compromise emerge in Ukraine
Siberian Light has an interesting post questioning whether there actually are Russian troops in Ukraine and if he’s right, that’s another good sign.

Ukraine in Pictures

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Well Yanukovich has finally been declared the winner. Since someone else is undoubtedly about to post about this I’ll leave it at that. But while we all wait to see what happens next, can I recommend a viewing of the reuters photoslides. I think in many ways these photographs tell a story of their own.

Clearly the scenography of snow and orange lend the images a very special quality, that and the sombre uniforms of the special police, with all those young eyes peering out through the gap beneath the visor. The images of young girls offering them flowers are also reminiscent of earlier epochs – like Prague 68.

These images as also historic. In some ways we are probably approaching the end of something (whatever happens next). I doubt we will see too many more scenes like this on European soil at least. It seems as if a process set off by another group of silent protesters in another city in another country some 15 years ago may now be about to enter its final stages.

Hopeful news (for real)

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NYT reports:

Shortly after his rival’s offer, Yanukovich also hinted at compromise by saying that he was not interested in a “fictitious” victory and that “no position of authority, no matter how important, is worth a single human life.”

Yushchenko’s comments provided outgoing President Leonid Kuchma with a way to defuse a crisis that has convulsed the ex-Soviet state of 47 million after it became obvious early on Monday that Yanukovich would be declared the winner.

Ukraine, developing…

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Update: (Nick – 1730CET) The official announcement has been made, declaring Yanukovich the victor. More ASAP when I’ve rounded up the reactions.

Maidan are reporting preparations for a state of emergency are being made at Yanukovich headquarters. Victor reports official results are 49.5% to Yanukovich, 45.5% to Yeschenko, though he already has reports of fraud. At the moment, I’m crossing fingers and everything else and hoping. Kwasniewkski and a Dutch representative (I don’t know who) are still reported to be on their way to Kiev.

The IHT reports the Ukrainian defence minister telling the Army to ‘remain calm’. Two members of the Election Commission refused to endorse the result. The Periscope’s latest update includes details of actions being considered by the European Commission and Parliament and Schroeder has talked with Putin urging that the situation be resolved lawfully (translated out of diplomatese, that would seem to mean ‘don’t do anything with your troops, Vladimir’)

Neeka has a new post on the Elections Commission meeting.

Update: (David.)

Hopeful news (for real)

NYT reports:

Shortly after his rival’s offer, Yanukovich also hinted at compromise by saying that he was not interested in a “fictitious” victory and that “no position of authority, no matter how important, is worth a single human life.”

Yushchenko’s comments provided outgoing President Leonid Kuchma with a way to defuse a crisis that has convulsed the ex-Soviet state of 47 million after it became obvious early on Monday that Yanukovich would be declared the winner.

Update: (David.) I just made a highly embarrasing goof. I thought a ten days old report was new. Ignore my last (deleted) post.

Update: (Nick) I don’t want to draw too many conclusions, as I’ve not quite sure the evidence supports them, but the Kyiv Post reports that Yuschenko has called on soldiers and police to defy orders to take action against the people and Maidan – who earlier reported that Ukrainian special forces were willing to intervene on the side of the protestors – are reporting that the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Marine Forces has acknowledged Yuschenko as President. Pure conjecture here, but I have a feeling that the reports of Russian troops being deployed within Ukraine has backfired and driven the armed forces into the opposition camp, as they don’t want to end up in a position where they’re firing on their own people.

5 pm CET:

Maidan claims that Today the President of Poland Kwasnewski arrives as representative of EU to Ukraine. and that Maidan receives more and more confirmation about presence of Russian troops in Ukraine.

Russia refuses to confirm or deny its troops’ presence.

Europe stepped up pressure on Ukraine officials Wednesday to review the results of the disputed presidential poll, following a similar statement of support from the White House. Meanwhile, Russian authorities continued to support Ukraine officials.

Still nothing from the electoral commisssion, which was supposed to announce the final results two hours ago.

Update:

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s Viktor Yushchenko, who accuses the government of rigging the Nov. 21 presidential elections, said he would agree to holding another second-round vote if the government is willing.

(Original post starts here)

There have been reports (Maidan, Scott Clark, Periscope commenters) that Russian Spetnaz are in Ukraine. Now, via Nosemonkey Maidan says: Ukranian special police will defend the people if Russian troops attack

Worst case scenario is dire indeed.

Prelude to crackdown? Postmodernclog.com wrrote two hour ago:

Authorities have begun violent action against peaceful protesters near the Presidential Admin building. 2 buses of special ops police units drove up and have moved on the demonstrators.

The periscope commenters reports

According to Korrespondent.net, Lviv Regional Council dismissed its Head and elected an Executive Committee, headed by the opposition MP Petro Oliynyk. Oliynyk sworn the oath to the People’s President Yuschenko.
This has been the third Oblast Council to acknowledge Yuchenko’s victory, along with Volyn and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts.
A number of city councils also either expressed support for Yuschenko or claimed the results of the second round of elections invalid, among them Kyiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsya, Ternopil, Stryi, Sambor, Khmelnytsk, Lutsk, Chernivtsi, Zhytomyr.
Some of the Eastern oblasts, on the other hand, issued statements claiming Yanukovich the elected President: Kharkiv (despite numerous pro-Yuschenko demonstrations), Odessa and Donetsk.

They also have a transcript of Yushchenko’s speech in Independence Square.

Blogs reporting from the ground: Scott Clark, Neeka, Victor Katolyk (in comments), Postmodern Clog.

Other blogs covering Ukraine: Europhobia, Voldmyr Campaign, Tulip Girl

Ukrainian news sites: Brama, Maidan, the Pora campaign..

It’s a draw?

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After describing some of the election fraud tactics and explaining that some local authorities seem to have pledged their allegiance to Mr (President) Yushchenko, the Ukrainian author Andrij Bondar writes in today’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (the English is my translation of the German translation of his article) –

It’a a draw. The European Union and the United States have declared the elections to have been forged, Russia has recognized Mr Yanukovich as legitimate President, Kuchma remains silent. It is not the first time in history that Ukraine is torn between East and West, between Russia and Europe, between totalitarianism and democracy. In these days, her future will be decided. More urgently than ever, we are in need of the moral and political support of the world’s democracies. If we gamble away Ukraine today, already tomorrow you will have to forget your sated and conflict-free Europe. Because Ukraine is Europe, or rather, in the words of the writer Andrzej Stasiuks: She is your European subconscious. The weather forecast is announcing snow and frost for Ukraine. But no one is willing to forcast if the blood of innocents will be shed tomorrow. We are still all alive. Still.

Wir sind doch amusiert

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Living in Germany as I do, I often find that I have hard things to say about the Germans. (Germans should see this not as evidence of their special faultiness but of my misanthropy. Were I living in Tahiti, I would doubtless have a lot of hard things to say about the Tahitians, who I understand from the paintings of M. Gauguin to be a happy, friendly and good-looking lot.) So why don’t I preface this by pointing out some of the nice things about Germans. They have contributed immensely to the world’s wealth of science, literature and philosophy. Everybody concedes that they make good cars and beer. The food is better than you might think it is.

But with the best will in the wortld, Germans are not funny, are they? We’ve all heard the German attempt at The World’s Funniest Joke — ‘der ver zwei peanuts valking down der Strasse, and von vas assaulted … peanut‘ — and even that needed Englishmen to be thought up.

Not a barrel of laughs, then, the Germans. Most of you have probably never seen German comedy, and you are the lucky ones. Those of you familiar with teutonic jesting will have had to suffer through Otto Waalkes, Dieter Hallervorden, Gottschalk & Kr?ger and similar highlights.

But wait. There is a narrow but rich seam of gold running through the dross. Germans might not often be funny, but when they are on song they can hold their own with the best. Here then, in the interest of fostering cross-cultural understanding, are some suggestions for those of you who can read and understand German.

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Wicked Thoughts Department 1

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As Nick notes in an earlier post Barroso and Solana have both been voicing their concerns about what is going on in Ukraine. Barroso has also issued a scarcely veiled threat about possible consequences. (Come to think of it, a strong stand on Ukraine could be one way of recovering some authority after the bruising he’s been taking at the hands of the MEPs). So I ask myself what has the always (even to the point of cynicism) pragmatic Putin got to trade?

Well he could try suggesting that the Russian central bank put a hold on its plans to convert some more of its reserves into euros. Preposterous suggestion, probably. Doable in the modern world of realpolitic, certainly. The irony here is that there were undoubtedly some people around at the time of setting up the single currency who thought that this ‘achievement’ of central bank reserve status was going to be a thoroughly good idea.

2pm: waiting for the news

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OK, time for another new post as we wait for news from Kiev. The Central Electoral Commission is meant to be having a press conference now to declare the result but there’s still no news. As I mentioned in the thread below, the current rumours on the streets are that the official announcement (followed by Yanukovich officially becoming President) will be followed by a crackdown on the protests in Kiev. Maidan has more – but it’s understandably rather slow today.

While it may be a bit premature to be looking past the current crisis, Mosnews has an article about the future of Ukraine, noting that regardless of the result, this has made people across Europe and the world aware of Ukraine and its position.

There’s a new International Support for Ukrainian Democracy website.
The Kyiv Post now reports troops heading towards Kiev.
Victor Katolyk’s latest post says that the Communist Party are now saying they believe the elections to be illegitimate. This may mean (if the Communists and allies come to 35 or more deputies on top of the 191 Yuschenko had yesterday) that a quorum can be found for another Parliamentary meeting.
It’s now just before 5pm Ukraine time, and there’s still no word of any press conference at the Election Commission. However, rumours of a potentially violent outcome to this are still spreading, with reports of busloads of Russian troops being transported around the country, though Maidan reports that Ukrainian security forces will intervene on the side of the protestors if they’re attacked by Russian forces.

Update: Just posted on The Periscope thread (at 09.07am PST – 15.07GMT), a report that Yuschenko has agreed to another election. There’s a story confirming this on Bloomberg along with a report that Polish President Kwasniewski is flying in to Kiev to act as the EU’s intermediary in any talks. Mosnews also reports that Yuschenko has agreed, subject to having “an honest Central Election Commission.”
Meanwhile, the Russian Duma backs Yanukovich while Grigory Yavlinksy has called for countries to recognise Yuschenko as the winner.
The results haven’t been declared yet, but Interfax reports the final figures from the Central Elections Commission will be 49.53% to Yanukovich, 46.66% to Yuschenko. They have two regional results as well:

In Kyiv, Yushchenko garnered 74.69% of the votes and Yanukovych 19.93%, and in the Donetsk region, Yanukovych won 96.2% of the vote and Yushchenko 2.03%, the source said.

More reports, including pictures of Yanukovich supporters, at Lobowalk.
BBC Radio just reported that the Netherlands – as holders of the EU Presidency – are sending an envoy to Ukraine.

Leitkulturkampf

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In comments to an earlier post on neonazi electoral gains in eastern Germany, I noted that Germany’s mainstream right wing Union parties normally respond to this sort of thing with a rightward lurch of their own. And indeed, they are right on schedule.
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