Author Archives: Nick Barlow

About Nick Barlow

Nick is on hiatus from AFOE. A Brit who lives in Colchester. Member of the Liberal Democrats. More here. Writes What You Can Get Away With, also contributes to The Sharpener.

Ukraine: Kuchma backs new elections

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Reuters (and the BBC, presumably based on that report) say that outgoing President Kuchma now supports the idea of new elections in Ukraine. However, there’s no word on whether he’s accepted Yuschenko’s full conditions for a revote – no absentee ballots and a new, independent CEC – in his statement.

Update: It appears he hasn’t accepted the Yuschenko conditions, and the call is for an entirely new election – not just a rerun of the runoff, but the whole electoral process. SCSU Scholars have more:

My Ukrainian student is listening to news reports and says this is not a real offer, that Kuchma is not only offering to redo the second round but the first as well. This could take 180 days. This is exactly the scenario I thought may happen — Kuchma doesn’t want Yanukovych as much as he wants himself to be president. If he can buy six months, he has found his ideal solution.

My student also reports Yushchenko has refused this offer and is holding out for the Supreme Court decision.

Meanwhile and elsewhere

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I’m sure Doug will have more to say about this, but the early results from the Romanian elections show it as being a lot closer that expected, with a run-off (between Nastase and Basescu) expected for the Presidency.

And the next French Presidential election may be three years away, but it’s already hotting up with the ‘coronation’ at the weekend of former Finance Minister Nicholas Sarkozy as leader of the ruling UMP (Union for a Popular Movement) party. This Guardian leader highlights a potential parallel with the last US elections, with the Democrats’ search for the ABB (Anyone But Bush) candidate mirrored by the Elysee Palace’s search for the TSS (Tout Sauf Sarkozy – anyone but Sarkozy) candidate which may, of course, be Jacques Chirac seeking a third term and his personal dream of occupying the Elysee for longer than Mitterrand.

One Week Later

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It’s strange to think that it’s only a week since Ukraine exploded into the world’s attention. It’s also pretty incredible to think that for most of that week temperatures in Ukraine have been around and (mostly) below freezing, yet so much of this has been made on the streets.

One thing that’s been true thtorughout the crisis is that we’ve had a lot of false climaxes – times when we thought everything was building up to a resolution of some sort – either good or bad – yet someone, somewhere, stepped back from the line and everything continued. Today could be yet another of those, with everyone waiting for the Supreme Court to decide on Yuschenko’s appeal, yet news reports over the weekend indicated that this isn’t simply one case, but a lot of little cases grouped together, each relating to a different charge of electoral fraud with the potential of there being a ruling due on each separate case. We could be here for the long haul waiting for them.

Another new news source for you – Obozrevatel has begun an English language site (via Neeka, who has a few updates of her own) while the Guardian pulls its head out of its own backside and prints a good comment piece from Nick Paton Walsh, who’s actually in Kiev.

There’s a comment I saw when I was looking through blogs – and I now can’t remember where I read it – that said the media outside Ukraine are being a lot more sceptical and pessimistic than comments from within the country, both from professional media and bloggers. It is certainly something I’ve noticed and seems to be heightened today with the secessionist threats of the east (and Yuschenko’s response) getting more attention outside than inside. As I’ve said before (and as Jon Edelstein noted in the comments on Scott’s post below) I think this is as much a negotiating ploy as a threat, using the ‘we’ll take our ball home if we can’t play with it’ argument. The problem for the secessionists is that they’re trying to push the issue too far, too fast (such as Donetsk’s threat to hold a referendum on the issue on this coming Sunday) to even pretend to be having a proper, democratic debate on the subject and thus losing the chance of there being any international recognition of their actions – outside parts of the CIS, anyway.

And the quick runround of the latest – there’s far too much new stuff on Le Sabot to link to it all, but his views on anti-semitism and the opposition are worth reading if you don’t have the time to look at everything, Foreign Notes looks at possible outcomes, the Kyiv Post remains as one of the best news sites for the crisis at present, there’s a roundup from the SCSU Scholars, and more reports from Orange Ukraine, Obdymok is at a slightly new location, Registan looks at the effect the events in Ukraine may have in the Central Asian republics and I have to link to this Dan Drezner post just for its description of John Laughland’s British Helsinki Human Rights Group:

Basically, BHHRG is what would exist if a cartoon version of Edmund Burke were divined into existence and asked to monitor elections in regions outside Western Christendom.

More later, when we should have heard something from the Supreme Court.

Just a quick Update: An interesting article from the Chicago Sun-Times about a Chicago judge’s experience of acting as an election observer: “I’ve seen Chicago elections, but that was shocking.”
The Yorkshire Ranter also looks at the emergence of the protest movements, and points out that they’re not an ‘American creation’ as some have alleged, but can trace their lineage back to Solidarity and others.

Momentum

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As I discussed in my post yesterday, one of the strengths of Yuschenko’s campaign has been the way he’s created the positive impression that he’s going to be President which has made it easy for people to rally to him, not just making every day’s protest bigger than the last but also in the way he’s created a parallel authority and obtained the support of the instruments of the state (diplomats, police, armed forces etc). See this Kyiv Post article for more analysis of the same issue.

This is what makes the vote in the Ukrainian Parliament today important. Earlier in the week, Yuschenko’s supporters in Parliament tried to get a vote on the same issue, but as a quorum of deputies wasn’t present (only 191 turned up, when 226 of the 450 deputies were needed) no vote was taken – though Yuschenko did make his symbolic oath to be President. Today, though, he was able to get the independent members (as well as some defectors from Yanukovich’s supporters) to back him which meant – even though Parliament’s decisions have no effect without President Kuchma’s signature – they could get the symbolic decision of a majority of the deputies overturning the election result. It’s another piece of legitimacy for Yuschenko, and it also shows how he’s maintaining his momentum and picking up new support.

Elsewhere, there’s another new Ukrainian blog at Orange Ukraine, lots more pictures and analysis at Le Sabot, Neeka has more hopeful posts (as she says: “It’s hard to believe but it does look like this country will not have a civil war anytime soon, despite some people’s fears and other people’s hopes.“) and lots more pictures, Foreign Notes discusses ‘my mother-in-law, revolutionary’, SCSU Scholars have a report from an election monitor in Donetsk and Daniel Drezner has a good round up of the news.

Into the weekend

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As the Ukrainian crisis heads into its sixth day, time for another roundup.

First, I’ve found another Ukrainian news portal in English – Ukraine Now – which is covering other news out of the country as well as the crisis. On the blogs, Le Sabot has more photos and continues his fascinating background series on the election. There are several new posts on Foreign Notes, including an interesting analysis of Putin’s motives. Lobowalk has lots of stuff as well, including a story that reminded me of the opening pages of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to The Galaxy as police take a break because the protestors promise not to do anything while they’re away. Crooked Timber’s John Quiggin has an interesting article and more background by academic Tarik Ari. Meanwhile, Neeka’s up and has a photo of an amiable discussion between two men from different sides.

Neeka does mention trouble in Kharkiv, and it does seem that things aren’t quite as peaceful in other parts of the country – though there don’t seem to be any serious problems yet. The Financial Times reports that tear gas was used – once – in Chernihiv, while Maidan has reports of rising tempers in Kharkiv.

Scanning headlines in Google News, there appears to be no consensus amongst reporters as to the effect of yesterday’s talks. Some stress the importance of both candidates urging their supporters to reject violence, while others worry that the lack of agreement heralds the beginnings of a descent into chaos. I’m – as I have been for most of the week – in the optimist camp on this one, as I think what’s most important is that they’ve agreed to continue talking as a task force, even if nothing much else was agreed. Both sides are still waiting for the Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday before committing to anything, I think, though of course the Parliament could have an impact before then.

More thoughts from me below the fold.
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A resolution in sight, or a deeper crisis?

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Two recent posts from Victor Katolyk:

korrespondent.net
The negotiations between Kuchma, Yanukovych, and Yushchenko will be held at 18:00 in the presence of international mediators. Yushchenko refused to hold eye-to-eye meetings with Kuchma or Yanukovych.

The negotiations will be mediated by Xavier Solana, Jan Kubish, Alexander Kwasniewski (President of Poland), Valdas Adamkus (President of Lithuania) and, possibly, other European and Russian diplomats.

Jan Kubis is OSCE Secretary-General. This does seem to be a good sign, except a post after it reveals what may be a worrying development:

elections.unian.net
In Lugansk, the session of the Oblast council has finished its sitting. The deputies adopted a decree about creating an autonomous south-east republic and signed an appeal to Putin with a request for recognition, – says the press center of the Ukrainian Socialist Party.

Currently, the local deputies are awaiting the arrival of Moscow mayor Luzhkov.

One thing I’ve noticed over the past twenty-four hours has been the creation of parallel authorities within Ukraine, notably the National Salvation Council established by Yuschenko which has begun issuing issuing decrees and establishing its own military command structure for forces loyal to it. The worry I have is that while Yuschenko’s position appears to be strengthening – see, for instance, that reporters on Ukrainian state TV are moving away from the Government – those who fear a Yuschenko victory are moving to set up their own parallel (and perhaps secessionist) administration.

As I write this, though, Victor has another update noting that the head of Yanukovich’s headquarters has said that “creating an autonomy in the Eastern oblasts is not the best solution”. However, the idea is now on the table. After the relative quiet since Wednesday evening, this afternoon looks like another critical phase. A lot will depend on how hardline both sides are in the negotiations.

Blogwise, there are updates from Foreign Notes, The Command Post is covering events in good detail and via there, a blog I wasn’t aware of before, Notes From Kiev.

There’s now also an official statement from the Council of Europe urging a peaceful solution.

Ukraine: Day 5

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Tobias’post below has already mentioned the letter on Tulipgirl and, like him, it reminded me of a quote, this time from Alan Moore’s graphic novel V For Vendetta:

‘It does not do to rely too much on silent majorities, Evey, for silence is a fragile thing…one loud noise, and it’s gone… Noise is relative to the silence preceding it – the more absolute the hush, the more shocking the thunderclap. Our masters have not heard the people’s voice for generations…and it is much much louder than they care to remember.’

Also via Tulipgirl, this blog is in Ukrainian, but has a lot of good pictures of what’s going on in Kiev. Le Sabot has more photos and more background analysis. Meanwhile Neeka has written a piece for the NYT (as well as being quoted in The Guardian and has an ineresting story about a protest by a TV sign language interpreter. Foreign Notes discusses the proposed swearing-in of Yanukovich as President today.

News keeps coming in from Maidan, but there have been no posts from Victor Katolyk or his friends this morning. There have been reports of Brama being offline, but it seems to be operating fine just now.

Javier Solana is now on his way to Kiev, along with President Kwasniewski of Poland, to try and mediate a solution between the two sides (the official press statement is here – pdf). It appears that early reports of Walesa’s visit yesterday were wrong and he is cautiously optimistic’ about progress being made. Indeed, he may have set the groundwork for Solana and Kwasniewksi’s visits. The Kyiv Post also reports that Lithuanian President Adamkus will also be visiting. The other important development inside Ukraine is that management imposed reporting restrictions are being lifted on many TV stations also in the Kyiv Post which refers tto the ‘regime’s grip over TV media crumbling’.

Finally, some other interesting sites or comments: Political Ukraine has background, Randy McDonald has some thoughts on Ukrainian national identity along with links to academic papers on the subject, The Russian Dilettante has several thoughts on the issue as does Siberian Light.

The live webcam feed from Independence Square is still available. And finally, back in May we had several features here about the Eurovision Song Contest (which was won by Ukraine) and now thi year’s winner Ruslana has declared she is on hunger strike in support of Yuschenko.

Update: Tulipgirl has website buttons for democracy in Ukraine. There are more at Amelia Hunt’s website. Examples below:
democracy_logo5.gifmapflag-button.jpg

Ukraine roundup

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I’ve just got time for a quick roundup of the latest developments in Ukraine.

First, and most importantly, the Supreme Court has suspended publication of the election result while it considers the case brought to it by Yuschenko. This is probably more routine than a sign of any clear intent on the part of the Court, but it does indicate that they’re taking the complaint seriously and are not dismissing it out of hand, as happened with a case Yuschenko brought earlier in the week, I believe.

Also, according to The Periscope, Kazakhstan, China, and Armenia have recognized Yanukovych – probably unaware of the Supreme Court decision to not decide today.

Second, the EU/Russia summit took place today, though there doesn’t seem to be anything concrete coming out of that yet. The official report from the summit is here (pdf file) and it’s more interesting in what it doesn’t say about Ukraine. Note that almost every other issue mentions refers to the EU and Russia jointly agreeing whereas Ukraine was merely the subject of an ‘exchange of views’. I think we have to wait for a statement from Solana (or possibly Barroso or Balkenende) to find out more. On the same note, Solana’s address to the Foreign Relations Committee yesterday can be foung here (also a pdf)

The situation in Ukraine itself appears to be developing into a standoff – Victor and friends keep posting at The Periscope and it seems to be following the same pattern as the last couple of days – rumours of movements of troops and miners, coupled with announcements of official support for Yuschenko from various locations. The latest news is that the Deputy Economy Minister has resigned and said he is ‘with the people’ and rumours are that Yanukovich is trying to make sure he has the loyalty of the rest of the Cabinet, particularly energy ministers. Maidan continues to post reports of military commanders stating they are with Yuschenko.

The protest in Independence Square continues, of course, while strikes are taking place across the country in support of Yuschenko.

There are also reports that Lech Walesa has tried to negotiate, but hasn’t achieved anything. He’s supposed to be holding a press conference around now, but there are no reports yet.

Via Harry, PORA now have an online petition up which they’re asking people to sign.

And quickly around the blogs – something new from Neeka, Le Sabot has photos and background.

Update: (Tobias 18:11 CET) One more night to come up with a solution. In other good news, after having been approached by numerous government officials as well as cnocerned citizens, lieutenant-general Mykhaylo Kutsyn, officer in chief of the Western Operational Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that ?[his] actions are directed towards unquestioning fulfillment of the law and Constitution of Ukraine and [he] officially declare[d] that divisions of the Western Operational Command will not fight their own people.?

That is certainly good news. Although I am not at all familiar with the Ukrainian military organization – I assume, given the East-West cleavage, it would be important to get a similar stament from the other Operational Commanders. (via Maidan.net)

Update: (Tobias, 19:24 CET) Jamie of bloodandtreasure has a useful link to a Ukrainian military guide at globalsecurity.org.
Apparently, Ukraine has three regional military commands, Western, Northern, and Southern (see this map). Kyev is situated in the Northern military command.

Update: (Tobias, 21:17 CET) The showdown may have begun. Victor Katolyk reports that, following a “declaration of truth” by several hundred Ukrainian television employees, several tv stations have begun broadcasting “real” news. While several hundred Policemen appear to have pledged allegiance to the people, and former Deputy Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko apparently declared the beginning of a seige of Presidential Administration, Cabinet of Ministers, and the Parliament, there are also reports of pressure on Supreme Courst judges and their families to rule in favor of Mr Yanukovich.

While Russian President Putin, speaking at the EU-Russian summit in The Hague, remained firm that the victory of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich was “absolutely clear”, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende finally clearly rejected the results as forged: “The election did not meet the international standards. Therefore the EU is not able to accept the result.” Maidan.net reports that the European Parliament will hold an emergency session devoted entirely to the situation in Ukraine next week.

It could become a serious problem that President Putin has gone further than even the Ukrainian administration in “ruling out” any kind of negotiation and accusing the West of stirring violence in Kyev. Moreover, for the moment, Russia seems not concerned about developing an exit strategy, but is fueling the flames – according to EUbusiness.com, “the president of the foreign affairs committee of the State Duma lower house of parliament, Konstantin Kossachev, also made clear on Thursday it was time for Russia to defend its territory, after a period of letting the West ‘back such or such a leader of such or such a country of the post-Soviet space, as long as they were pro-Western and therefore anti-Russian'”.

Such an official statement about Ukraine being Russian property will likely be counterproductive should it become widely known in Ukraine.

Update: (Tobias, 22:33 CET) The FT wonders if Ukrainian Oligarchs, who have supported Yanukovich and clearly stood to gain from his victory, are now beginning to think about hedging their bets.

Most remain wedded to Mr Yanukovich, especially the barons of his political heartlands in the industrialised Donetsk region. But a few are beginning to wonder whether Mr Yanukovich still offers the best protection for their interests.

Many are also coming under pressure from employees who are openly supporting Mr Yushchenko – putting up posters in factories and workplaces and taking time off for demonstrations.

Update: (Nick 0005 CET) The Times has a map showing the breakdown of the votes in the elections

The morning after

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Well, it’s been another quiet night in Ukraine, but the demonstrations have continued again today – the live feed shows that Independence Square is full of people again with hundreds of orange flags flying.

There have been a lot of updates on Maidan overnight, mainly of protests and rallies around the world, and still the rumours about Russian troops continue. The main news there, and at the Kyiv Post are of the call for a general strike by Yuschenko.
Louise Ferguson has an email from a Ukrainian academic that’s being forwarded around the world which makes for interesting reading. The key line, when talking about the election fraud is ‘I couldn’t remember such things even during the period of Soviet regime.‘ (the full text is below the fold)
BBC News has a short rundown of the faults with the election process identified by the election observers.
Elsewhere the EU/Russia summit will go on today with Ukraine on the agenda – it’ll be interesting to see what comes out of there, and I suspect much will remain on hold until that is over. However, the EU’s mediators should be in Kiev by now, which means things will be going on behind the scenes that we won’t notice.
On the ground, there are blog updates from Neeka, Obdymok, several from Le Sabot, Foreign Notes and continuing posts from Victor at the Periscope.

I’ll try and update the news as often as I can today, but I’m a lot busier today than I was yesterday, so hopefully some of my Fistful colleagues will take up some of the slack. I think it will be quieter today – though rumours will still fly – mainly because all the action will be taking place behind the scenes either in The Hague or Kiev.

Update: A couple of peope have asked for background information on the ethnic and nationalistic divisions in Ukraine. Well, like many issues of national identity in Europe, the answer is ‘do you want the long story, or the really long story?’ but for an overview there’s good article in today’s Independent and Wikipedia is a good web source – you can start with their Ukraine page and follow links from there.
In my roundup earlier, I also forgot to mention that Harry’s Place has links to articles on attempts by the current Ukrainian administration to get support in Washington. Harry also links to a good Timothy Garton Ash article in The Guardian.
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One last roundup

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As it gets close to midnight in Ukraine, I’m going to make this (hopefully) the last roundup of the day. Obviously, if anything major happens between now and me going to bed, I’ll come back.

First things first – Victor Katolyk is still posting at The Periscope, but his comments are now on a new thread. There are lots of stories of Yanukovich supporters arriving in Kiev by buses and trains.
After his earlier comments prompted my ‘Uh-oh’ post, Obdymok has updated with some observations that put a more positive spin on the situation:

always hate to get it wrong, but the drama of the central election commission (cec) session and the sight of the goons, thousands of them, walking towards the cec shocked me.

flying punches is what i was thinking about, at least, when i watched the coal miners and thugs file by, for over five minutes, from my window on the 5th floor.

the feeling changed when i got a chance to get there and talk with them.

ordinary bodies shipped in. paid. but they are people. human.

pictures >here, and later a couple of interviews, boring ones.

ivan tavhen, an out-of-work 42-year old father of two from makeevka, donetsk oblast, said he was told it was a one day trip.

“i’m not infatuated by yushchenko and can use an extra hr. 200,” he said.

thousands of the big men, strong men, some wearing hard hats, others wearing cossack gear, just hung around the central election commission sipping vodka and eating pieces of sausage.

they are going back to their buses now.

meanwhile, on maidan, the party is in full gear.

they girls in wearing orange scarves did not get as scared, as i did at first.

the donetsk guys called them “chuchely,” but with a rough kind of affection. kinda like in magadan.

be brave! molodtsy!

From yesterday, but Embassy has interesting article on the background to the situation.
Maidan continues to report and mentions Yuschenko calling a general strike. This also gets mentioned in the latest BBC report which is slightly more concerning than others as it notes how both sides have referred to possible ‘civil conflict’. The problem comes, I think, in that both sides seem willing to talk, but don’t seem to be able to agree on an agenda for talks and indeed who these talks should be between. However, the hope has to be that tomorrow external mediators such as Kwasniewski and Walesa will be able to get them through the ‘talks about talks’ stage.
The Kyiv Post has an AP article about Putin – Putin increasingly walks alone – which looks at the ramifications for tomorrow’s EU/Russia summit and beyond. However, the fact that the summit is taking place tomorrow does make me hopeful that there won’t be any crackdown in the next 24 hours as Putin would not want that as a backdrop.
Elsewhere blogwise, Europhobia has a new post covering some of the same issues I am here, while the Head Heeb looks at the position of Ukraine’s Jews.

A few thoughts from me below the fold:
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