Author Archives: Nick Barlow

About Nick Barlow

Nick is on hiatus from AFOE. A Brit who lives in Colchester. Member of the Liberal Democrats. More here. Writes What You Can Get Away With, also contributes to The Sharpener.

Powell speaks

Posted on by

US Secretary of State Colin Powell has addressed the Ukrainian situation in a statement. He said the US does not accept the results of the election. Reuters has a summary (check the State Department website later for a full transcript):

Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Wednesday the United States did not accept the results of the disputed election in Ukraine as legitimate and called for immediate action.

Powell urged Ukraine’s leaders to “respond immediately” or there would be consequences in the relationship between the two countries.

His comments echo – even down to the strong warning of unspecified ‘consequences’ those made by Barroso and Solana for the EU earlier today and I think indicates that there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes so that the EU and US show a united front on this issue. As I’ve noted in the ‘Uh-oh’ post below, the signs are that there will be negotiations between the two sides (interestingly, the Kyiv Post reports that Lech Walesa is on his way to aid negotiations) and the prospect of violence is thankfully shrinking.

Update: The State Department has now made Powell’s full statement available. I’ve copied it below the fold.
Continue reading →

Uh-oh

Posted on by

From Obdymok:

just saw thousands of berkut police from kharkhiv and donetsk, as well as thousands of coal miners, start walking in down lesi ukrainky blvd. in the direction of the central election headquarters.

lesi ukraini leads to bessarabsky rynok and the start of khreshchatyk, which is filled with about 100,000 yushchenko supporters.

i think a riot is imminent.

From Victor:

According to korrespondent.net, in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, people are being arrested for supporting Yushchenko.

My own comment: This is what is awaiting Ukrainian people, too. This is coming. All legal ways of resolving the situation have been exhausted.

And Maidan:

We have just received an information that, in case some sort of a coercive scenario will be used against the opposition, the police and army units supporting Yushchenko will defend the protesters in downtown Kyiv and secure public order.

They resolutely affirm that the law-enforcers brought to Kyiv from the regions that have voted for Yanukovych, in spite of the fact that a part of them has a strongly negative view of the opposition, will never turn against their colleagues, since the corporative solidarity is more important for them than their political preferences that in fact do not have a profoundly principled character.

However, the authorities might send groups of gangsters against peaceful protesters, but the honest law-enforcers intend to treat them as the law requires, including the use of firearms in cases authorized by the Law.

But a ray of hope from Victor:

According to podrobnosti.com.ua, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yanukovych states that will not accept the results of the elections until their legitimacy is proved. He stated this at the sitting of the National Council on Coordinating State and Regional Authorities.

If Yanukovich doesn’t accept the Presidency – for now, at least – then the hope of a negotiated solution remains alive, possibly Yuschenko’s proposal for holding the runoff election again. I suspect that both sides are waiting for the EU mediators to arrive, so let’s hope that everyone on the streets can remain calm. Reuters also report Signs of compromise emerge in Ukraine
Siberian Light has an interesting post questioning whether there actually are Russian troops in Ukraine and if he’s right, that’s another good sign.

2pm: waiting for the news

Posted on by

OK, time for another new post as we wait for news from Kiev. The Central Electoral Commission is meant to be having a press conference now to declare the result but there’s still no news. As I mentioned in the thread below, the current rumours on the streets are that the official announcement (followed by Yanukovich officially becoming President) will be followed by a crackdown on the protests in Kiev. Maidan has more – but it’s understandably rather slow today.

While it may be a bit premature to be looking past the current crisis, Mosnews has an article about the future of Ukraine, noting that regardless of the result, this has made people across Europe and the world aware of Ukraine and its position.

There’s a new International Support for Ukrainian Democracy website.
The Kyiv Post now reports troops heading towards Kiev.
Victor Katolyk’s latest post says that the Communist Party are now saying they believe the elections to be illegitimate. This may mean (if the Communists and allies come to 35 or more deputies on top of the 191 Yuschenko had yesterday) that a quorum can be found for another Parliamentary meeting.
It’s now just before 5pm Ukraine time, and there’s still no word of any press conference at the Election Commission. However, rumours of a potentially violent outcome to this are still spreading, with reports of busloads of Russian troops being transported around the country, though Maidan reports that Ukrainian security forces will intervene on the side of the protestors if they’re attacked by Russian forces.

Update: Just posted on The Periscope thread (at 09.07am PST – 15.07GMT), a report that Yuschenko has agreed to another election. There’s a story confirming this on Bloomberg along with a report that Polish President Kwasniewski is flying in to Kiev to act as the EU’s intermediary in any talks. Mosnews also reports that Yuschenko has agreed, subject to having “an honest Central Election Commission.”
Meanwhile, the Russian Duma backs Yanukovich while Grigory Yavlinksy has called for countries to recognise Yuschenko as the winner.
The results haven’t been declared yet, but Interfax reports the final figures from the Central Elections Commission will be 49.53% to Yanukovich, 46.66% to Yuschenko. They have two regional results as well:

In Kyiv, Yushchenko garnered 74.69% of the votes and Yanukovych 19.93%, and in the Donetsk region, Yanukovych won 96.2% of the vote and Yushchenko 2.03%, the source said.

More reports, including pictures of Yanukovich supporters, at Lobowalk.
BBC Radio just reported that the Netherlands – as holders of the EU Presidency – are sending an envoy to Ukraine.

Ukranian update

Posted on by

It was another quiet night in Ukraine with, thankfully, all the rumours of a crackdown by security forces not coming true. Neeka has a couple of posts on what happened overnight. She also points out, that amidst everything else going on, Dynamo Kiev played at home in the Champions League last night, and won 2-0. Victor Katolyk has continued to report through what’s been a quiet night.
BBC News reports that President Kuchma has offered talks to the opposition who will respond at around 10am Ukrainian time. The Kyiv Post, however, reports that Yulia Tymoshenko – who the BBC reports as saying Yuschenko will respond by 0am – has turned down the offer. I guess we have to wait and see on this one. The picture on their front page gives an idea of the size of the crowd.
Elsewhere, the Denver Post has reports from former US Congressman Bob Schaffer who “went to Ukraine to monitor an election but found himself watching a revolution.”
Brama and Maidan have continued to update overnight.
Following up on something Victor has mentioned, the Guardian reports that four newsreaders have walked out of Channel 1+1 in protest about censorship which is why that station hasn’t been showing any news – there’s no one there to report it! They also report (via the IFJ) that journalists at Inter and UT1 have walked out.
The BBC has a link to the Yanukovych campaign website but it appears to be down at the present time.
Tulip Girl lists the turnout at protests throught Ukraine.

Update: Europhobia starts a new post to cover today’s developments. Victor is now joined by friends to cover the latest events over at The Periscope. The official election result is expected to be announced at around 1400GMT (4pm Ukrainian time) – that looks like the key time to wait for today. There seem to be protests spiringing up all over the country right now.
There’s a new blog for the Voldmyr Campaign, it’s London-based and compiling information about what’s going on in Ukraine right now.
Javier Solana addressed the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee this morning and has warned of the possibility of violence. Following on from NATO last night, the Parliament has cummoned the Ukrainian Ambassador “to defend the conduct of the disputed presidential election in his homeland.”
The PORA campaign has an English-language website.

Update 2: The morning has continued with no major developments, though the crowds remaining in Kiev are still huge. The main currency appears to be rumours as people wait for the official announcement of the result at 4pm Ukraine time (2pm GMT, 3PM CET, 9am EST)
It’s not in English, but there appears to be a lot of information flowing through this Livejournal community. (By the way, Fistful is available as an LJ feed here)
BBC News reports that the European Commission has requested that the declaration of the result be declared delayed – (typo, not the Commission changing its mind). From what I understand, should Yanukovich be declared the winner then, he becomes President straightaway. Reports at The Periscope indicate that that’s when the crackdown by security forces will begin.
Another Kiev-based blog – Foreign Notes.
Reuters report the statement from the European Commission, including what sounds like quite a strong statement from Barroso:

“We have asked for the procedures and the results to be reviewed … and we are urging our Ukrainian partners to resist announcing final results before that review has taken place.” Emma Udwin, a spokeswoman for the EU’s executive Commission, told a daily news briefing.

New Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso called for restraint in Ukraine and said there would be consequences for EU relations with Kiev “if there is not a serious, objective review of the election results”.

Le Sabot Post-Moderne is working for Maidan, and has a report on the latest developments. Maidan itself reports that government buildings in Kiev are being evacuated.

Update (by Tobias): Crisis Fallout: Le Figaro reports mounting EU-Russian tensions just one day before a scheduled summit in The Hague. While Ukraine was not originally on the summit’s agenda, the ongoing events are likely to change that.

According to the newspaper, the Russian government now accuses the EU that by asking for a recount (which it did not do as such as such, the Dutch presidency simply expressed “doubts” aobut the election) it was “encouraging the Ukrainian opposition to take violent and illegal steps”. EUPolitix.com cites President Putin, who allegedly said ?Ukraine is a great state with a mature democratic system. There is no need to teach it democracy” (much more reading in their )

Ukraine on your doorstep

Posted on by

One thing Victor Katolyk has said in his reports from Kiev that I’ve heard echoed elsewhere is that there have been protests – mainly by the Ukrainian diaspora – at Ukrainian embassies and consulates around the world. So, I wanted to ask the readers of AFOE to participate in a bit of interactive newsgathering. Here’s a list of Ukrainian embassies worldwide and I’d like to ask those of you who live in or near to capital cities to let us and the world know of any protests or demonstrations that have happened or are going on there either today or tomorrow. I’ll do my best to collate the information and link to anyone who has reports, so spread the word and we’ll see what we can achieve!

Update: Before I go to bed, here’s what we have already – and thanks to everyone for their help so far!

Several hundred march in Warsaw (link in Polish), several demonstrations for tomorrow listed on Maidan, including The Hague, Buffalo, NY and several other locations across the US and Canada. Yushchenko’s website reports on protest in Rome and rally in London. Viktor also passes on reports of a demonstration planned in Paris tomorrow.

Wednesday morning update: There are details of protests today in New York and Washington in the comments. Maidan are publicising protests, rallies and demonstrations all over the world. They also report that 5000 people gathered in Toronto and that there are continuing protests in Rome. Brama have pictures of a protest in New York including a rally outside the UN building. This Is London reports on 1500 people protesting outside the Ukrainian Embassy in the UK.

More from Ukraine

Posted on by

I’m starting a new post for the latest information as the old one was starting to get a bit long. The session in Parliament has broken up as there were 191 deputies there, but 226 (50%+1) were required for a quorum, so no action could be taken. However, the Kyiv Post reports that Yushchenko has taken a ‘symbolic’ oath of office as President:

After the session ended, Yushchenko swore an oath on a 300-year-old Bible. The Ukrainian constitution, however, stipulates that the president swears allegiance on a copy of the constitution. Lawmakers chanted “Bravo, Mr. President!”

There’s other interesting information in the story as well, such as how a no confidence vote would also be symbolic rather than binding:

“All political forces should negotiate and solve the situation without blood,” said parliament speaker Volodymyr Litvyn.

“The activities of politicians and the government … have divided society and brought people into to the streets,” Litvyn said. “Today there is a danger of activities moving beyond control.”

A no-confidence vote in parliament would have carried political significance, but it would not have been binding. According to the Ukrainian constitution, a no-confidence vote must be initiated by the president – and outgoing President Leonid Kuchma has staunchly backed Yanukovych.

Opposition leader and Yushchenko ally Yulia Tymoshenko, wearing an orange ribbon around her neck, called on lawmakers “not to go to into any negotiations” with the government. Instead, Tymoshenko said, they should “announce a new government, a new president, a new Ukraine.”

However, there are welcome signs that direct confrontations are being avoided:

Mykola Tomenko, a lawmaker and Yushchenko ally, said some police had joined the opposition, although the claim was impossible to independently verify. One police officer, wearing an orange ribbon in his uniform, ordered a group of police outside a government building to retreat inside, defusing tension between them and Yushchenko supporters.

Kyiv’s city council and the administrations of four other sizable cities – Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk – have refused to recognize the official results and they back Yushchenko.

Elsewhere, idiotprogrammer discusses (the lack of) American coverage of what’s going on (though we have now been mentioned on Instapundit).

Update: BBC News 24 reports (from the AFP wire) that Yushchenko has called on the police and army to come out and support him while miners are threatening to march on Kiev in support of Yanukovich. AFP also reports that Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende – the Netherlands currently holds the EU presidency – has informed Ukrainian President Kuchma that the EU has doubts about the result of the election.

Update 2: The Periscope has lots of information, including translations of what’s being broadcast on Ukrainian radio right now. They also report that Javier Solana will be addressing the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs tomorrow focusing on events in Ukraine.
Latest breaking news from the Kyiv Post reports Putin saying that “criticism of the Ukrainian election by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is “inadmissible” because there are no official results.”
More blogging from Kiev at Le Sabot Post-Moderne.
Interesting BBC News article on some of the background to the protests. It mentions a Ukrainian student group – Pora – who have connections with Georgia’s Kmara and Serbia’s Otpor movements, both of whom were at the forefront of the protests in their countries that overthrew governments. As several people have noted, Georgian flags are being displayed quite prominently amidst the protests.
There’s a good Financial Times article on the processes going on behind the scenes:

Although Mr Kuchma has spent a decade building an authoritarian regime, he has not established complete control – unlike President Vladimir Putin in neighbouring Russia – and it is unclear whether he can assure victory for his prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich.

In particular, he does not control parliament or the Supreme Court, both of which could play a vital role in determining the victor.

The core of Mr Kuchma’s power is his dominance of the bureaucracy, law-enforcement and state security structures inherited from Communist times. Even before Mr Putin made similar moves in Russia, Mr Kuchma established presidential control over regional governments and placed close allies to oversee the news on the main state and private television channels. […]

Critically, the president has failed to establish a reliable majority among parliament’s 450 members. Recently, Volodymyr Lytvyn, the speaker, and more than 30 deputies deserted the pro-presidential bloc, creating a stalemate in which neither Mr Yushchenko nor Mr Kuchma have a majority.

Mr Kuchma cannot take the support of domestic institutions for granted, especially the Supreme Court, where judges enjoy independence thanks to lifetime appointments. Before the polls, the court acted in Mr Yushchenko’s favour by ordering the Central Election Commission to exclude 41 extra polling stations in Russia for the numerous Ukrainian citizens there amid concerns that they might be used for ballot fraud. After the first round, the court ordered the Central Election Commission to reverse a decision to exclude votes from a pro-Yushchenko district.

As the widespread allegations of second-round fraud have shown, the government has attempted another challenge to institutions Mr Kuchma does not fully control.

The authorities successfully ordered and bullied civil servants to co-operate in ballot-stuffing operations – ranging from university professors who applied unfair pressure on students to police officers who were paid to tour polling stations and vote more than once. But the machine did its job too well. The sheer scale of fraud required to swing the official results in Mr Yanukovich’s favour has provoked huge protests and international criticism.

Update 3: Victor Katolyk’s live reports from Ukraine are in this Periscope thread. BBC News 24 just had live pictures from outside the Presidential offices where police are present in full riot gear and standing about 10-15 deep, completely blocking access to what appeared to be a large crowd of protestors. However, despite all that, things still seemed peaceful – the crowd was quite orderly and there was a gap between them and the police, with no signs of imminent trouble. At times like this, though, it only takes one hothead to spark a flame.
There’s a brief post on Siberian Light that makes an interesting couple of points:

* Putin seems to have made a major error of judgement in backing Mr Yanukovych. If the election result is overturned, he will have made an enemy of Yushchenko.
* And if Yushchenko does win the Presidency he won’t have such a strong mandate from the people as Saakashvilli did in Georgia’s Rose Revolution (which, by the way, is celebrating its 1st anniversary today). Even if the election had been free and fair, I doubt Yushchenko would have won by more than a few points. There are deep East-West divisions in Ukraine which have bubbled to the surface this week. They won’t just go away.

BBC News reports that Yushchenko has asked former Polish President Walesa to mediate in the crisis. Walesa is reported as saying he will if Ukrainian President Kuchma asks him to.
Update 4: Right, one last set of updates then I need to get some sleep. Things seem to have quietened down now – it’s 2am in Ukraine right now (for reference, it’s GMT+2, CET+1, EST+7). Victor has continued to updates at The Periscope– the general trend seems to be reports of public and international support for Yuschenko, coupled with rumours of potential trouble from forces allied with Yanukovich tomorrow. There’s nothing we can do but sit and wait to see how those pan out.
Yuschenko’s website in English (click on ‘ENG’ at the top of the screen) has lots of news, including a story that Mikhail Gorbachev has backed Yushchenko.
Interesting posts from Daniel Brett and Coming Anarchy.
There are many reports of international demonstrations and protests for Yushchenko tomorrow – I’ll add those to the thread above.
Two more sites gathering and reporting news from Ukraine in English – Maidan and Brama.

The Orange Revolution?

Posted on by

Just a quick update on events in Ukraine today. Mass protests are still taking place in Kiev and Lviv, and the rumoured crackdown by security forces on protestors during the night didn’t take place. Yushchenko has asked the protestors in Kiev to march to Ukraine’s Parliament which is debating the elections. I can’t read it, but the Parliament’s website is here. Wikipedia’s page on the election is being updated frequently, and also has a map showing the quite stark east/west divide between Yushchenko and Yanukovich.

If you know of any more information please add it into the comments, or mail us, and we’ll update this post as the day goes on.

Update (by Tobias, 14:10 CET):It seems that, seeing the wave of protests in Kiev, the international coverage and criticism of the election Ukrainian presidential results is getting more vociferous – and a little hopeful.

According to the BBC’s Helen Fawkes, the opposition’s main objective now is to have the Ukrainian “parliament to pass a vote of no-confidence in the central electoral commission and to refuse to recognise the result of the ballot.”

In marked – albeit widely expected – difference to the Russian election observers – who declared the voting “transparent, legitimate and free,” according to CNN/Interfax – both OSCE and US observers are united in their assessment of a rigged election – including not too unreasonable claims by Mr Yushchenko, about having been poisened.

Senator Richard Lugar, the US’ official observer, summarized the feelings of the people on Kiev’s streets: It was “concerted and forceful” fraud.

According to CNN, all EU countries have now summoned the Ukranian ambassadors. AP reports that German Foreign Minister Fischer has demanded a recount and expressed his hopes for a peaceful resolution of the current situation.

And as Nick indicated above, so far, no violent suppression of the protests has occured, despite reports about “the road leading to parliament turned into a river of orange – the campaign colour of Mr Yushchenko” (BBC) and claims by security forces to crack down on any “lawlessness”.

Even though this live feed (via the TulipGirl) showing Kiev’s main square doesn’t show 100,000 people at the moment, Ukrainian Journalist/Blogger Veronica Khoklova is right to claim in her blog that

Something IS going on there, definitely.

Update 2: (By Doug Merrill) Germany’s leaders, both government and opposition, are calling for a recount in Ukraine’s election. Foreign minister Fischer has called in the Ukrainian ambassador to express his views directly.

Various media (Spiegel Online, Polish television, though not yet BBC or CNN) are reporting that Yuschenko’s supporters are forming up to march on Parliament. Poland’s largest newspaper has splashed the Yushchenko rally across its entire front page, and the online article begins roughly, “The night was peaceful – what will the day bring?”

One of the most widely circulated pictures of Yushchenko shows him holding up a rose — the symbol of the Georgian revolution. Reports are of up to 200,000 people in the main square to support Yushchenko.

Some significant things have not happened. A feared crackdown and clearing of the square at 3am last night did not take place. There are not reports of mass public support for Yanukovych in his strongholds. The rally in Kiev has not turned violent. Police and armed forced appear to be staying neutral. While these are only signs, they are good signs.

Update 3: (Nick) A few links: Photos from Blog de Cannard, links on einsordenull, the Kyiv Post is a Ukrainian newspaper in English, Europhobia keeps finding more links and Neeka has some news on what’s happening in the Parliament as they discuss it. Reports (such as this one from the BBC as well as Neeka) suggest that Yushcehnko’s supporters have turned up to to Parliament but Yanukovich’s supporters and the Communists are staying away, meaning that there are insufficient members there to pass a motion of no confidence in the election commission.

Elections

Posted on by

So, after a long election campaign, the vote takes place. Exit polls say that one candidate has a clear lead, but when the votes begin to be counted it seems that his rival is leading by a small margin. Election officials keep counting, with results not expected for a day or so, while candidates begin to warm up their lawyers and supporters for action.

And this time, it’s in Ukraine. As I write this, current Prime Minister Yanukovych leads opposition leader Yuschenko by less than 1% after exit polls showed leads to Yuschenko of between two and nineteen percent. This follows, of course, lots of allegations of irregularities in the first round of voting. Counting is currently on hold until this afternoon.

Update: Counting is now almost complete, and official returns show that Yanukovych is the winner by around 50% to 47%. However, the OSCE says the vote fell far short of European democratic norms and pro-Yuschenko protests have begun with reports of 50,000 people in Kiev’s Independence Square.

Another update: From Georg in the comments, two Ukrainian blogs that are covering events: Neeka’s Backblog and obdymok. Both seem quite interesting and worth a look.

Nationalism, regionalism and Spanish football

Posted on by

The Independent has an interesting article today entitled ‘Why will a quarter of Spain be supporting England tonight?’ (for those of you who aren’t aware, there’s an international football friendly tonight between Spain and England in Madrid) which looks at how the Spanish national football team is not supported by many of the people of Spain because of the strong currents of regionalism and nationalism.

In so far as Catalans will be taking an interest in tonight’s Spain v England game in Madrid, they will be – most of them – supporting England. Should England score, the whole city will know about it. It happens every time, just as it does when Bar?a score a goal: in every neighbourhood there will be someone guaranteed to set off a celebratory firework or two.

Now, admittedly, things could get a little complicated this time around. What if Owen or Beckham score for England? The spontaneous reaction will be jubilation, but a moment’s reflection will yield the alarming truth that they play for the most detested enemy of them all, Real Madrid.

At which point the mental systems of Catalan football fans everywhere may dangerously short-circuit. Or not. Love for England may momentarily trump loathing for Spain. Whatever the case, it will yield an interesting new twist on the complex tribal impulses that animate the otherwise sane and impressively civilised Catalan people.

The Catalans are not alone. The Basques are at least as zealous in their desire that the Spanish football team be beaten. And as far as tonight’s game is concerned, because they haven’t got as much of a thing about Real Madrid as the Catalans do, they’ll be cheering on Beckham and Owen with as much abandon as the rest of the England team.

There are other, smaller nationalist enclaves in Spain where they’ll be rooting for England too. A number will in Galicia, in the Celtic-rooted north-west (they play the bagpipes out there, the fields are green and they look Irish); some diehards will in the Valencia region; and the Balearic islanders (Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza) will be happy for the most part to see perfidious Espa?a defeated.

Update: Unfortunately, the match was marred by some pretty despicable racist chanting from an element of the Spanish fans – see this discussion on Crooked Timber for more.