Luxembourg will continue the ratification process and hold a referendum on July 10. The result will be interesting to see.
Parliamentary leaders in the tiny Grand Duchy agreed at a meeting on Monday to proceed with the vote even though opinion polls have shown a sharp rise in the “No” camp since French and Dutch voters rejected the treaty three weeks ago.
The vote could prove a gamble for Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who has said he will resign if voters reject the charter
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But in which direction does it lead…….?
German lawmakers approved a bill Friday that would allow older unemployed people to collect jobless benefits for longer than previously planned, a move that comes as the government struggles in polls ahead of elections expected in September.
In unpopular reform introduced earlier this year gradually scales down benefits for the long-term jobless to the level of social welfare payments. The new bill would give unemployed people above age 45 an extra two years of full-level benefits.
The Lisbon agenda, and all our policies associated with the ‘ageing society’ ar meant to lead to higher particpation rates in the over 55 age group, it isn’t clear to say the least how this fits in with that.
Evidence is growing that the legacy of the French and Dutch votes will be more enduring than many of our leaders seem to have thought. Now a survey in the Czech Republic finds voters increasingly unwilling to vote the constitution.
The poll showed that 29 percent of Czechs would reject the constitution and 19 percent would support its ratification… More than a quarter of the population is not concerned whether or not the document will be ratified, and another quarter believe ratification is unnecessary in the current situation. “At present, the European constitution would not be approved in a referendum and in addition, a very small number of voters would have take part in it,” Jana Hamanova from SC&C said, in reference to the results of the poll.
This means that the EU constitutional treaty is not currently supported by the majority of potential voters of any of the parties represented in the Chamber of Deputies.
Danish foreign minister Per Stig M?ller seems to be in something of a quandry. He has given up hope that one clear message could be sent on ratification of the constitution when EU leaders meet for a summit later this week. At the same time he doesn’t seem clear what to do about the Danish referendum – due on 27 September – since Copenhagen has made it a pre-condition for asking Danish voters to go to the polls, that Paris and the Hague say clearly what they plan to do next. I think he will have to learn to live in hope.
EU foreign ministers approved a protocol today adapting a customs union with Turkey to the 10 new member states, including Cyprus, in so doing they brought membership negotiations with Ankara one step closer. This ‘haste’ – cdecent or indecent – is not proving popular with everyone. The EU Observer is reporting that enlargement is definitely *off* the agenda for this weeks summit and EU external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner has already indictated that in her view there should be a slow-down in enlargement.
This is being interpreted as meaning that Austria may even have reservations about Romania, and Bulgaria:
A senior official from one new member state said there were some signals, particularly from Austria, that it could be difficult to ratify the accession treaties of Romania and Bulgaria, due to join the bloc next in 2007.
Finally this does seem to be evidence of ‘indecent haste’:
Diplomats said EU president Luxembourg was pressing Ankara to sign the accord within the next three weeks, and if possible before Thursday’s EU summit, to cut short any attempt to call the negotiations into question in the light of public concern shown in the French and Dutch referendums.
Jean Claude Junker is working away trying to get a deal before next weeks summit. Next on the list: Tony Blair:
“Tony Blair, prime minister, is coming under intense pressure to give up part of Britain’s rebate to the EU budget as part of a deal that would see big cuts to European rural subsidies………..Luxembourg, which currently holds the EU presidency, knows that Mr Blair will only move on the rebate if Mr Chirac agrees to cuts in subsidies for his country’s farmers.”
Difficult to say what will happen. It is clearly important for the credibility of the EU to have a rapid ‘success’ somewhere. Perhaps a deal on the budget would help. Plus, if Blair puts this behind him, he will be able to take a much stronger line on other issues during the UK presidency.
the Czech president has become the first prominent EU politician to call for the ratification process to stop after the French vote.
According to the Czech news agency CTK, Vaclav Klaus, a well-known eurosceptic, said that to carry on the ratification process would be useless, although the Czech prime minister has said he is in favour of continuing.
“The decision has been made and I hope everybody understands it”, Mr Klaus is reported as saying.
In fact, were the ratification process to continue, the Czech Republic has still not decided the actual method of the ratification and the government has admitted it will consider limiting the procedure to a parliamentary vote after all, since the constitutionional change necessary for holding a referendum has proved difficult to agree on among the different parliamentary parties.
Wow, I seem to be agreeing with Mandelson. Hardly surprising, apart from all the sleeze rows, I have the feeling he is the most competent politician working out of Brussels:
Striking a different tone from European Commission President Jos? Manuel Barroso, Mandelson appears to be suggesting a ?plan B?.
He argues that should the French ?non? be an obstacle to the EU constitution Europe should seek a ?new consensus?.
EU leaders could set out a vision of Europe?s policy direction and then draw up a fresh institutional blueprint.
?I think that consensus on the centre ground is there to be mobilised. One that rejects the populism of left and right,? he said.
Mandelson noted that future ratifications ? including a British vote ? would depend on whether the EU constitution was still viable.
?There will be a period of reflection,? he said early on Monday morning.
?If there is a constitutional treaty to ratify, I am confident it will be put to British people in a referendum.?
For now, at any rate, the Nordic countries are to continue with the ratification process. We will see how this eveolves as the days pass.
We naturally respect the decision of the French people but it is crucial that Danes be allowed make their own decision in the autumn,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Denmark’s prime minister said.
There would be no change of plans should Dutch voters also reject the treaty on Wednesday, he added
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Goran Persson, Sweden’s prime minister, described the French result as “a severe setback for the treaty” but pledged to continue the Swedish ratification process.
Matti Vanhanen, the Finnish prime minister, said he would proceed with the ratification process and expressed hope that other EU states would do likewise.
This piece in the FT seems to suggest that Barroso may in fact be moving away from the ‘bsuiness as usual’ line:
The European Union was on Monday braced for a wave of possible No votes against the EU constitution, after French voters decisively rejected it.Officially EU leaders stuck to the line that all member states should ratify the treaty as normal, but privately there are growing doubts about whether that is possible.
José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, admitted there was “a risk of contagion” with hostility to the treaty spreading to other countries. ….