The Economist is more or less positive about the outcome, of course it probably didn’t favour the constitution anyway:
French voters have rejected the proposed European Union constitution by a decisive margin. The flawed constitution is now probably dead, though the EU will get by without it. For President Jacques Chirac, however, it is a crushing defeat
Incidentally the Economist is now putting virtually all the Glbal Agenda section. I don’t know what this portends for their online influence.
DJ Nozem: Spinning the ‘No’
Euan MacDonald (Transatalantic Assembly): A little more on the EU Constitution
S?bastien Llorca (The Fundamental principles of…) Towards a NO in France? Why?
Nosemonkey: Europe is not ambitious enough
Jerome a Paris (Daily Kos): France Votes (VII). It’s tomorrow. My bet.
Ulrich Speck: Making Sense of The French Vote. A Study in Orwellianism
Belgravia Dispatch: Why the Likely Non?
Jasper Emmering:
Maybe I just don’t get it…..
Guy on the Dutch referendum debate.
Les raisons de mon “oui”, par Emmanuel (Publius)
Marek (The Agonist): Lies and Xenophobia – the Bankruptcy of the French Left
As efforts continue to resolve the deadlock over the forthcoming reform of the EU budget, this article from reuters give some background on what the impact on Spain might be.
“Spain is set to be the big loser in tough negotiations on the EU’s 2007-2013 budget as the bloc’s paymasters led by cash-strapped Germany seek to limit their contributions and divert scarce resources to poorer new members in eastern Europe. Madrid has received a net 93 billion euros in EU funds since joining the EU in 1986, a cash injection that Spanish officials say surpasses U.S. aid to other European countries received under the Marshall Plan after World War Two”.
Here’s the link to the Eurostat report on Italy’s deficit revisions. The language is very formal, but between the lines it isn’t hard to see the frustration with the kind of data they’ve been getting.
It is recalled that Eurostat was not in a position to validate the figures for Italy in the context of the March 2005 EDP notification. Apart from the three issues mentioned above, this was mainly due to the recording of transactions with the EU budget, to inconsistencies between data on cash and accrual bases and to statistical discrepancies in government accounts. It is expected that Eurostat will shortly receive from the Italian authorities the information requested on these issues and will then be able to clarify these issues in co-operation with ISTAT. Depending on the outcome of the examination, this could lead to a further upward revision in the government deficit for the period between 2001 and 2004.
Actually the FT isn’t giving any apparent credence to the Times story, focusing on the embarrasing position the UK government might find itself in if there is a ‘no’. “Senior government officials are warning that if the French public votes No in its referendum on the European Union constitution, it could undermine Britain’s presidency of the EU in the second half of the year.”
Well, if you believe Times (and after last weeks episode with the Independent I believe no-one), le petit ‘non’, like its equivalent le petit mensonge, is not all that serious after all. According to the Times, Britain is working with other European states to draw up plans to keep the European Union constitution alive if there is a narrow ?non? vote in France next week. Just a soupcon of ‘no’ will, in the end ‘help the medicine go down’.
French economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter and this is bound to have a negative impact on yesterdays ‘big push’ to win support for the ‘yes’ in the European constitution referendum. Gross domestic product in what is Europe’s third-largest economy grew January -March by only 0.2%. This compares with the October-December period, when it expanded by a revised 0.7%.
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After the sorry incident of the Independent ‘racism scare’ yesterday, I really have to say I can sympathise with Germans who are getting tired of being treated as if they were all ‘Hitlers Children’.
“Germany’s federal president Horst K?hler called on the British people on Thursday to drop their “stereotypical” and “negative” views of Germany, in comments that look likely to revive debate on problems in British/German relations”….”Germans have a bigger affinity to Britain than the other way round,” he said. In unusually outspoken comments, he added: “I fear that German stereotypes in Britain are largely negative. Britain should take a more open view of Germany.” He criticised British schools for focusing only on the Nazi period when they taught German history..
Sometime I would write a longer post on all this. I am not sure that all German stereotypes in the UK are as negative as K?hler fears. Unless things have changed a lot recently there was always a tremendous regard for German craftsmanship, and efficiency. In the 70’s and 80’s the German model of social compact was extensively admired: Ralph Dahrendorf was brought in to head the LSE, for example.
This is why I was so jumpy about one commentator confusing the Telegraph with the Independent yesterday. I think maybe there were two schools of attitudes: those more on the right – like the Spectator and the Telegraph, who keep harping on about the nazi past, and those like the guardian, independent, economist, who have certainly all at one time or another been admirers of the ‘social economy’. That was why I was so shocked by the Independent yesterday. But then again there is the anglo-phobia to be found in continental Europe (although this is more likely to be found in France than in Germany). As I said, maybe one day a longer post…
Former government colleague of Jos? Maria Aznar, and now International Monetary Fund managing director, Rodrigo Rato has also been voicing opinions today.
In an interview given to the Spanish magazine Expansion, he says:
A 48-hour limit would push the eurozone in ‘the opposite direction’ from the rest of the world. ‘It is sending the wrong message…. ‘I don’t know what social model they are defending by stopping people doing more’…. ‘There is not an alternative to the US as the engine for growth’
He also reiterated his view that the European Central Bank should be ready to cut interest rates if signs of ‘greater weakness’ emerge. The ECB has ruled out such a reduction.
It seems that outside the ECB there is a growing consensus that we might see a rate cut before year’s end.
Meanwhile the bond markets continue to price in a cut
The 10-year bund yield reached 3.27 percent two days ago, the lowest ever for Germany’s benchmark. Yields, which move inversely to prices, fell amid evidence European economic growth is faltering.
The EU Observer has the following:
The President of the European Commission has called for a French yes to the European Constitution, pointing out that there will not be a “plan B” if France rejects the treaty next week……….But Mr Barroso asserted there was no plan B in case the French rejected the treaty.
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