Monthly Archives: September 2004

Negotiations For Turkey’s Entry About To Begin?

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Not if people like single market commissioner Frits Bolkestein gets his way they aren’t. According to the FT the European Commission is expected to say on October 6 that Turkey has reformed enough for membership negotiations to begin. If this happens EU leaders will then decide in December whether to endorse those conclusions and when to start the talks with Ankara. Mr Bolkestein seems to have problems with this:

A senior European commissioner has warned against the “Islamisation” of Europe, casting doubt on Turkey’s drive to join the European Union at a crucial time for its campaign for membership.

Frits Bolkestein, the outgoing single market commissioner, made the comments as his colleague G?nter Verheugen, the enlargement commissioner, visited Turkey ahead of a key Commission report next month on the country’s preparations for joining the EU.

In his comments, circulated by the Commission yesterday, Mr Bolkestein said Europe would be “Islamised” because of demographic and migration changes. He added that if this occured, “the liberation of Vienna [from the Turks] in 1683 would have been in vain”.
Source: Financial Times

Mr Bolkestein’s problem would therefore not appear to be connected with the legitimate question as to whether Turkey is, or is not, complying with EU criteria on human rights, treatment of minorities etc, but with something which sounds remarkably like an objection in principle. In this sense it is noteworthy as it is clearly a somewhat crude expression of a much broader popular sentiment which Europe’s responsible political leaders need to do much more to combat. My interpretation of the above statement is not altered by the clarification from a spokesperson that the commissioner does “not oppose the accession of Turkey to the EU”, which I take to be spin in the face of what must otherwise be considered in Commission terms a diplomatic gaffe, since if he is not opposed to membership then what the hell is he talking about?

And, oh yes, don’t miss the point about demographic trends. I hazard to suggest that this is going to be the topic of the decade, both economically and politically.

Beslan, Pt. 1

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Just got back from a week in Russia, which was interesting timing indeed. A bomb at the Riga train station the day I arrived. The battle and massacre in Beslan just days before I left.

I’ll have more to say tomorrow, but I wanted to ask if anyone among our readers can find a link to the front page of this Sunday’s Izvestiya (September 5). It was a full-page photograph of a man carrying an injured or dead girl from the wreckage of the school. A beautiful, heartbreaking photo, a modern piet? as sorrowful as anything the Renaissance gave us.

It also got the paper’s editor-in-chief fired by the Kremlin.

Update: Many thanks to reader Michael S. who pointed me to the paper’s pdf archive. The picture is here, and the rest of the day’s powerful edition is here. Don’t miss page 12.

Skype, or Simply Hype?

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Well, no, it looks as if it’s for real, and for once it’s European. But whatever it is, or isn’t, Skype (the most popular of the Voice Over Internet – VOIP – applications) is certainly getting a lot of press coverage at the moment. James Fallows of the NYT has been kind enough to test it out for everyone:

While running, Skype sits in a little window, like an instant-messenger program, and lets you talk with other users in two ways. If the other person has Skype installed, you can talk as long as you want, free, and with sound quality that is startlingly better than that of a normal phone connection…..

You can also reach people who don’t use Skype, through a new service called SkypeOut. This allows you to dial nearly any cellular or land-line telephone number in any country and talk. Though it isn’t free, it’s cheap. Skype’s prices are in euros – its founders are Scandinavian, the main programmers are Estonian and its headquarters are in Luxembourg – and they average two or three cents a minute, at any time of day.

Meanwhile back in London Ofcom (the UK telecom industry regulator) have decided to establish the prefix “056”, which will allow phone users to switch from the existing 11-digit telephone numbers to a new Internet broadband 11-digit phone number. Stephen Carter, Ofcom’s chief executive is quoted by Reuters as saying that “”Broadband voice services are a new and emerging market. Our first task as regulator is to keep out of the way.” Good for him.

Of course in one sense Skype is the ultimate in social software, facilitating the development of a young interconnected broadband elite. Simple economics should indicate that as the marginal cost of communication drops rapidly towards zero the quantity should increase. Indeed could we be witnessing the simultaneous rise of two phenomena: densely clustered local networks supported via mobile phones, and more sparsely clustered, but economically highly interesting, global nets facilitated through a platform of broadband connectivity?

So with references to Google and E-Bay abounding the only remaining question seems to be whether Skype will become the latest in the line of new economy, increasing returns, monopolies. Their website claim that they have already provided over 21 million downloads suggests they may be. Will you be the next?

Suspicion and divided loyalties

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Perhaps the most damaging effect of 9/11 and all that has followed will be its role in making divided loyalties one of the most dangerous things a person can have. From the beginning, while the ruins of the World Trade Center were still burning, any effort to hold non-trivial positions about terrorism and Islam were attacked. People opposed to the war in Iraq were branded as terrorist supporters, people unimpressed by a programme of reform in the Middle East imposed at the end of a gun were castigated, people who asked questions about whether there was more to things than “they hate us for our freedom” were branded as traitors.

Tariq Ramadan wrote a piece in Wednesday’s New York Times which must be read in this light. The key paragraph – the statement of where he stands – appears at the end:

I believe Western Muslims can make a critical difference in the Muslim majority world. To do this, we must become full, independent Western citizens, working with others to address social, economic and political problems. However, we can succeed only if Westerners do not cast doubt on our loyalty every time we criticize Western governments. Not only do our independent voices enrich Western societies, they are the only way for Western Muslims to be credible in Arab and Islamic countries so that we can help bring about freedom and democracy. That is the message I advocate. I do not understand how it can be judged as a threat to America.

But it is not that hard to see the threat in it. To encourage western Muslims to at once see themselves as having a place in the West and a role in the Islamic world is tantamount to asking them to divide their loyalties. To all too many people right now, divided loyalties are a synonym for treason. The charge of divided loyalties is an old one, and a very damaging one. It was once the most mainstream charge that people made against Jews. To see it revived today – against Muslims in Europe, against Mexicans in the US by the likes of Samuel Huntington, and yes, against Jews in many countries – is very, very troubling.
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The Lafontaine Factor.

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In a state election (Landtagswahl) in the Saarland that was widely considered another benchmark for the approval of the German federal government’s reform efforts, particularly of the labour market deregulation programme known as “Hartz IV” – these elections are, often to a significant extent, second order national contests – the Social Democrats have been dealt the predicted crushing defeat, gaining likely just under 30% of the vote, losing about 15% compared to their 1999 result, according to early, but usually very reliable exit poll data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, broadcast by ZDF television (German labelled graphics here).

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Russian troops storm school

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About an hour and a half ago from the look of it.

The assault did not appear to be planned, but rather began with scattered fire that quickly erupted to a crescendo, punctuated by more blasts. Dozens of hostages — many barely dressed, their faces strained with fear and exhaustion – survived the assault, but others emerged bloodied and in shock. The fate of the majority inside — now believed to be as many as 1,000 — was not immediately known.

NY Times

Update: What Interfax is reporting is not a pretty picture. Unplanned raid, over 200 wounded, surviving terrorists hiding out in an adjacent building.

Peek Data

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It’s sometimes interesting to give some thought to the things we believe, and don’t believe, about people. For some George W Bush is one of the most ruthless US Presidents we have seen in years, for others he is apparently the perfect gentleman, playing exactly by the rule book:

Financial markets may be all ears on Thursday night for hints about August job growth from President Bush, but they will be listening in vain since he plans to purposely avoid an early peek……………

“While the president typically sees the jobs data the evening prior to its release, he will not receive the jobs numbers tonight, nor will any of the people who are working closely on his speech,” said White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan.

Instead, Bush will wait with everyone else until Friday to see the hotly anticipated news.

The US Labor Department sends the data, due out at 8:30 a.m. today (Washington time), to the president’s economic advisers the night before. Normally there is not much importance attached to this, but this time clearly there might have been. I didn’t see the speech, but from the reports I’ve read, there was no special mention of the jobs state of play. Also, interestingly, there seems to have been no special reaction in the financial markets to this absence: they clearly see George as a gentleman. Whatever the numbers finally are (and we will still have to wait till later today to actually see them) I’m sure everyone will read the sub-text the way they want to, although clearly glowing numbers (which I personally am not anticipating) would give the most knee-jerk Bush critics a rather harder time.

Teething Troubles (comment system unavailable)

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As appropriate for every one year old, afoe is currently experiencing some children’s disease. As you might have noticed, due to some still obscure reason, our MT installation has ceased accepting comments at some point on Wednesday.

Sorry for the inconvenience. Please bear with us as you would with your own toddler ;).

UPDATE: It seems the comments work again.