Monthly Archives: December 2004

Not Everybody Likes Orange

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Or the idea that while Russia can bring hundreds of millions of goodies for Kuchma and Yanukovych, the European Union, Poland and other countries to the west have things to offer too.

One publication from Ukraine sees the conference we mentioned as evidence that Germany has been plotting a coup in Kiev. (The URL in the article takes me to a binary stream that I didn’t trust; maybe someone else can enlighten us on what temnik.com.ua is all about.) It doesn’t look like the authors — who considered the fall of Milosevic a coup, too — have discovered Fistful yet.

Anyway, below the fold is a taste of how the other side thinks. (Thanks to the Ukraine List for the translation.)
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French Socialists say ‘yes’ to the Constitution

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After an internal party referendum, France’s Socialists have agreed to back the EU Constitution. Approximately 80% of party members voted in the referendum, with 55% of them voting for the party to support the Constitution in the national referendum planned for next year. It also strengthens the position of party leader Francois Hollande, boosting his chances of being the party’s nominee for President in 2007.

Is this the resolution?

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Ten days on, and we may be close to a resolution of the crisis in the Ukraine. There’s definitely been some agreement between Kuchma, Yuschenko, Yanukovich and the mediators (Solana, Adamkus, Kubis and Kwasniewski) but, as ever, the devil is in the details. The basic points seem to be that there will be a revote, there will be constitutional reforms before the vote occurs, protestors will stop blockading government buildings and an all-party working group will implement changes based on the rulings of the Supreme Court.

The questions that remain to be answered though, are:

  • What form will the revote take? The full election, or just the second round? Will new candidates be allowed to stand, and will existing ones be barred from standing? Will more observers be allowed in for the elections, and will Yuschenko’s other requirements, such as limiting absentee ballots, be accepted?
  • What form will the constiutional reforms take? The general opinion seems to be that the Prime Minister and Cabinet will gain powers from the Presidency, but is this to weaken a potential Yuschenko Presidency? And will the reforms address the regional issues?
  • Where do the protestors go now? Blockades are over, but will some remain on the streets to keep the pressure on?
  • Finally, what will the Supreme Court actually rule and when? It seems the election process can’t really begin until its deliberations are completed?

    • As I said, reaction seems to be mixed amongst both the media and the bloggers as to whether this is the end of this stage of the crisis, or whether it still continues. See the Kyiv Post, PA/Scotsman, Le Sabot, Foreign Notes, Notes from Kiev and SCSU Scholars for more.

    In related news, The Argus notes that while the events in Ukraine may have inspired protestors in Tajikstan Uzbekistan, while attention’s been focused elsewhere, Russia is demanding Abkhazia reholds its recent election.

    Finally, I’ve received a report from Tarik Amar, who reported from Ukraine on John Quiggin’s blog last week. He’s been talking to the people in the tent city and you can read the full thing below the fold.
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    Red Ribbons. Not just For Ukraine.

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    HIV infections are once again rising in the EU and other parts of the West, particularly among younger people, because funding for awareness programmes has been slashed for years and fortunate medical advances in anti-retroviral treatment and a rising life expectancy of those infected are (thus) too often leading to a perception of HIV/AIDS as a chronic illness rather than a fatal disease.

    In the US, the problem has been aggravated by the religious right’s efforts to abandon pragmatic policies in favor of a dogmatic prevention policy based predominantly on “abstinence only.”

    Yet, in addition to some parts of Asia and large parts of Subsaharan Africa, where the virus is already out of control, Eastern Europe is extremely affected. In fact, as Dr. Peter Piot., head of UNAids, explained yesterday, the situation could hardly be more dramatic – the infection rate in Russia and the surrounding countries “…bears alarming similarities to the situation … faced 20 years ago in Africa” and is “perilously close to [the] tipping point” of spreading quickly through the entire population.

    Ukraine, the country watched by the world these days seems particularly vulnerable. Despite well funded prevention efforts deemed “adequate and efficient” by UNAids, according to the agency’s 2004 report Ukraine

    “has the highest prevalence of HIV amongst the CIS countries [1,4% of all “adults” aged 15-49]. Since 1995, the virus has spread dramatically, first due to HIV transmission among injecting drug users, but lately also increasingly through sexual transmission. In 2002, 74% of HIV-infected people were injecting drug users, 40% were women and about 64% were under the age of 29.

    Thus, In addition to orange ribbons, red ribbons aren’t going out of style any time soon there. For additional info, the BBC has a nice interactive map showing the global spread of HIV based on the 2002 UNAids report.

    On the other side of the continent

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    While attention remains focused on Ukraine’s political crisis, another one is forming on the other side of Europe in Portugal. A crisis of a somewhat lesser magnitude, admittedly, but it seems likely that President Sampaio is about to dissolve the Portuguese parliament and call fresh elections, making the Pedro Santana Lopes face a vote after just four months in office.

    The President has to meet with leaders of the parties in parliament and the Council of State before officially being able to dissolve Parliament, but given that Sampaio believes Santana Lopes ‘lacked the indispensable conditions to continue to mobilise Portugal and the Portuguese in a coherent, rigorous and stable fashion‘ I suspect his mind may be made up, unless the governing parties decide to replace Santana Lopes with a new Prime Minister.

    If elections are called, they’re not likely to happen until February, but they could lead to Socrates leading a European country – the Socialist Party, currently in opposition, is ahead in the polls and led by Jose Socrates.

    Ukraine: link roundup

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    Tobias’ post below has some good analysis of what’s happening in Ukraine at the moment, so I’ll restrict myself to a few links.

    The situation is being discussed in the European Parliament today – David McDuff has the text of a draft resolution that will be discussed.
    Siberian Light discusses the economic effects of the protests. The FT also looks at the measures being taken to stabilise the Ukrainian economy during the crisis.
    Via Neeka, who also has other updates, comes news of another new blog – UA Rule Of Law – looking at legal aspects of the crisis.
    There are several updates to Notes From Kiev, including links to interesting articles in the Moscow Times – Now Ukraine Has Earned Its Independence and The Guardian, where Nick Paton Walsh looks at some of the family ties in the crisis.
    Orange Ukraine has updates, including a call for people to volunteer as election observers.
    Meanwhile, millions of people have gone on strike to protest against the government – oh sorry, that’s in Italy.

    An Orange Solution, Even For Putin.

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    Some orange in Brussels.    About a week ago, I wondered what the chances were for an explosion when hundreds of thousands of people are smoking at a gas station. Unfortunately, now their leaders seem to have begun fooling around with the gas pump handles in truly ‘zoolanderesque’ manner.

    More and more commentators seem to be afraid about Russia’s hardline stance and the possible geopolitical fallout of the Orange Revolution, while such a realpolitical approach offends others for the little concern it has for the people freezing for freedom – or, more precisely, a little democracy and approximate rule of law.

    As so often, it’s a little both. And to avoid an explosion, both conceptual layers need to be given the appropriate consideration: How to make sure no one, and above all the Ukrainian people, ends up paying the bill for continuing a pointless conflict when the Orange Revolution, this plebiscite on modern governance, is actually opening up a whole range of opportunities for Ukraine, Russia, and the West, and – particularly – the EU.
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