Monthly Archives: May 2005

French Referendum: No Vote On The Rebound

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The ‘No’ campaign seems once more to have regained the lead in the run-up to France’s referendum on May 29, with French voters apparently ignoring all warnings about the damage that would be caused by rejection of Europe’s constitutional treaty.

One explanation for this may be the fact that leading politicians of the left – like Jacques Delors and Laurent Fabius – have given the impression that a ‘no’ outcome would lead to a probable ‘renegotiation’ of the treaty, with an outcome more favourable to French interests. The latest opinion polls show that an increasing proportion of respondents say France could renegotiate a better treaty after a No vote. According to the Ipsos poll cited below, nearly 62 per cent of respondents now hold this opinion.

Confounding pollsters, pundits and politicians alike, public opinion in France has swung back behind a no vote to the new European constitution, say three surveys published yesterday.

Less than two weeks before France’s May 29 referendum on the treaty, the polls by the TNS-Sofres, Ipsos and CSA agencies for Le Monde, Le Figaro and Le Parisien newspapers showed support for the no camp, trailing since the end of April, had bounced back to between 51% and 53%.
TheGuardian

Deficits On The Rise

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Things may be about to liven up a bit for Economics Commissioner Joaquim Almunia: it seems probable that the Italian deficit will be nearer 4% than 3% this year, and Portugal may even clock-in something of the order of an incredible 6 to 7%.

The worsening outlook in the two countries will rekindle the debate about whether they should have joined the single currency in 1999.

Germany had strong doubts during the 1990s about whether the economies of the ?Club Med? countries were ready. As part of the currency union, they are denied the traditional escape routes from economic trouble: devaluation or cuts in interest rates.

With their deficits already above the EU’s 3 per cent limit, neither government has scope to cut taxes or raise public spending.

Make no mistake: there’s a real and big problem looming here.

Uzbekistan Update I

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The latest news going the rounds today centres on the round-up of ‘suspects’ following the clashes and demonstrations in Andijon last week. Of course, numbers vary. The LA Times Moscow correspondent cites interfax to the effect that 70 people have been detained (interfax in its turn cites Uzbek Interior Minister Zakir Almatov).
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Long Sentence Coming

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The trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky is coming to an end, with a guilty verdict a near certainty. Actually, a guilty verdict has been a near certainty from the word go: conviction rates in Russia are upwards of 95 percent. With the structure saying one thing and the Kremlin saying the same thing, maybe the biggest surprise is that it has taken so long to get there.

The prosecution has asked for a ten-year sentence, and they will probably get it. According to the news on my radio station this morning, the judge’s latest ruling reproduced the prosecution’s brief word for word. Including typographical errors.

Uzbekistan and the World

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Ok, I’m feeling guilty. Back in November, when the ‘orange revolution’ was thriving in Ukraine, we were all over it here at Afoe. Now, with an estimated several hundred dead in Andizhan, Uzbekistan we’re strangely silent. Why, because it isn’t Europe? Well, we are a Europe centred blog, but I hope that doesn’t mean we are Eurocentric. In any event we are involved, one way or another: as Jack Straws comments, or lack of them, make only too plain. So I’m going to try and follow what is happening in Uzbekistan.

But there is another reason for my deciding to do something about the situation, and it came to me after reading a post by John Quiggin on Crooked Timber.
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Spain: Is An End To Eta Imminent?

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“The insurgents in Iraq are very violent, but you defeat them not just through military effort,” Ms. Rice told reporters traveling with her on Sunday. “You defeat them by having a political alternative that is strong.” Now, she added, Iraqi leaders are “going to have to intensify their efforts to demonstrate that in fact the political process is the answer for the Iraqi people.”

These words from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, which are extremely welcome as the daily death toll in Iraq only continues to emphasise the need to break the spiral, also has a resonance somewhere nearer home: in Spain, where tomorrow the Spanish parliament are to debate a motion which may be a major step in bring the epoch of ETA inspired violence to an end.

But not everyone is happy.
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Hanging In The Balance

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As opinion polls produce results wobbling uncomfortably back-and-forth between ‘yes’ and a ‘no’, France is in the grips of a chaotic day of ‘solidarity under duress’ whose consequences for 29 May seem hard to foresee.

News that parliaments in Germany, Austria and Slovakia have approved the constitution treaty is tempered by the results of the latest poll from the Netherlands, and a growing awareness of the possible uncertainty of forthcoming votes in Denmark, Poland and Ireland (at this stage the Czech Republic has still to decide on whether to have a referendum). It is taken as read by all concerned that the constitution faces a major obstacle in the UK referendum to be held in 2006.
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EU recognized by the CIA.

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Last week, on a visit to Germany, Henry Kissinger stated that Europe “now has a number”. Well, I’m not sure which one in particular he was referring to, or if the CIA’s decision to list the EU in its world fact book has anything to do with Kissinger’s realisation – but depending on the outcome of the Constitutional ratification process, the decision to include the EU at this point of time will either be judged prophetic, or unfortunate – or as another example of “divide et impera”, of supporting those in Europe who campaign against a “superstate” (whatever that may be). After all, it’s a “fact-book”, isn’t it? From the CIA World Fact Book “What’s New” section –

“…the European Union has been included as an “Other” entity at the end of the listing. The European Union continues to accrue more nation-like characteristics for itself and so a separate listing was deemed appropriate. A fuller explanation may be found under the European Union Preliminary statement.”

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What Margot Wallstr?m Didn’t Say

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European Commissioner For Communications (no pun) Margot Wallstr?m is in the news, not for what she said, but for what she didn’t say. The EU observer reports she excised part of a speech she had prepared for her visit to Terezin in the Czech Republic where she was scheduled to mark the 60th anniversary of the liberation of a Nazi concentration camp. The ‘offending passage’ hinted that rejecting a supranational Europe meant risking a new European holocaust:

“Yet there are those today who want to scrap the supranational idea. They want the European Union to go back to the old purely inter-governmental way of doing things. I say those people should come to Terezin and see where that old road leads”

This reference has with reason offended the sensibilities of many democratic opponents of the proposed EU constitution. But my problems with it go further. It is an insult to the memory of those very camp victims whose memory we are in these days so intent on commemorating.
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