Monthly Archives: June 2005

Phone Home

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Astronomers have found a rocky world orbiting a star about 15 light years from our own corner of the universe. With apparently about twice earth’s diameter, and about seven and a half times the mass, it’s the smallest extra-solar planet yet discovered.

“We keep pushing the limits of what we can detect, and we’re getting closer and closer to finding Earths,” said team member Steven Vogt from the University of California, Santa Cruz.

That’s boggling enough. But what I had somehow missed is that in the ten years that scientists have been spotting extra-solar planets, they’ve found 150 of them. That’s more than once a month. Makes my mind just reel: Every month, humanity finds another planet around a distant star. Every single month.

“F?ilte!”

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Or if you prefer: welcome. In a move which is to go into effect Jan. 1, 2007, Gaelic is to become an official EU language. After that any Irish representative will be free to speak in the language at EU ministerial meetings or in the European Parliament. The downside: spiralling translation costs. Translation costs for the EU’s 20 official languages are already set to pass $1 billion following the entry in 2004 of the 10 new accession members..

Meantime the European Union also granted semiofficial status today to three more of Spain’s national languages: Basque, Catalan and Galician :).

Back to the Roots.

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Today, the IHT reprinted post referendum reflections about Europe by former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt that were first published last Thursday in the German weekly Die Zeit.

I’m sure some will call it elitism in light of the recent constitutional referanda, but Schmidt still believes that real political leadership is now more important than ever in Europe, for

[b]ecause Europeans can look back on more than a millennium of national development, the Union cannot be brought to completion in just a few decades by ministers and diplomats: The EU needs the consent and will of its citizens. The coming experience of increasing helplessness of smaller and medium-sized nations acting alone will increasingly convince their citizens of the need for the Union, but that will take time and perseverance.

Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman, Val?ry Giscard d’Estaing, Jacques Delors, many of the old guard knew: We can repress the historically created egocentric nationalism of Europeans only gradually. Today’s statesmen and the overzealous Brussels commissioners should follow this example.

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Denmark In A Quandry

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Danish foreign minister Per Stig M?ller seems to be in something of a quandry. He has given up hope that one clear message could be sent on ratification of the constitution when EU leaders meet for a summit later this week. At the same time he doesn’t seem clear what to do about the Danish referendum – due on 27 September – since Copenhagen has made it a pre-condition for asking Danish voters to go to the polls, that Paris and the Hague say clearly what they plan to do next. I think he will have to learn to live in hope.

Enlargement Issues Brewing

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EU foreign ministers approved a protocol today adapting a customs union with Turkey to the 10 new member states, including Cyprus, in so doing they brought membership negotiations with Ankara one step closer. This ‘haste’ – cdecent or indecent – is not proving popular with everyone. The EU Observer is reporting that enlargement is definitely *off* the agenda for this weeks summit and EU external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner has already indictated that in her view there should be a slow-down in enlargement.

This is being interpreted as meaning that Austria may even have reservations about Romania, and Bulgaria:

A senior official from one new member state said there were some signals, particularly from Austria, that it could be difficult to ratify the accession treaties of Romania and Bulgaria, due to join the bloc next in 2007.

Finally this does seem to be evidence of ‘indecent haste’:

Diplomats said EU president Luxembourg was pressing Ankara to sign the accord within the next three weeks, and if possible before Thursday’s EU summit, to cut short any attempt to call the negotiations into question in the light of public concern shown in the French and Dutch referendums.

Time It Stopped Snowing

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John Snow is in Europe, globetrotting on the G8 round. He had some advice for us here in Europe: “I think the important thing is that Europe continue to focus on the things that need to be done to encourage domestic growth”.

I’m glad he raised the point, since otherwise it might have escaped us. These comments, and other similar ones, are widely interpreted as recommending that we focus on reform. Well I couldn’t agree more, but sometimes isn’t it better to start putting your advice in practice at home. Looking at the state of global trading imbalances I would say that the US has its own problems, and they seem to need attention. Looking at the trade figures, German and Japanese companies don’t seem to have any special problem of being competitive internationally. I don’t want to seem tendentious, but isn’t it the US manufacturing company which is having difficulty being competitive these days, at least if the ability to sell at competitive prices in international markets is anything to go by.

Of course Europe and Japan are light on internal demand growth, but there is precious little we can do about it since this is largely a product of demographic changes, not structural weakness. This is a part of the ‘new global reality’ and the sooner politicians like John Snow face up to this, the better for all of us.

To Whom It May Concern

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The euro is now currently (11.38 CET) at $1.2045.

Update: Ah, now I’ve found the reason for todays move:

The euro fell to a nine-month low against the dollar after European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing spurred speculation the bank may reduce interest rates for the first time since 2003.

Asked in an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine whether investors’ expectations of a rate cut in coming months are justified, Issing said: “In the past, financial markets almost always anticipated ECB policy decisions correctly.”

“He is preparing investors for a rate cut and the market is responding to that by selling euros and buying dollars,” said Neil Jones, a director of foreign-exchange sales at BNP Paribas SA in London.

I hasten to add that I consider Otmar Issing to be perfectly authorised to steer the euro down in this way. This is a much more considered move than Jean-Claude Junker’s recent outburst. Basically I agree with it, I am just waiting to see whether Greenspan will in fact be able to continue raising US rates. If he does it once, I can’t see him continuing for long.

The Democratic Left/PDS Alliance

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We had some discussion on this topic back in May. The FT this morning – in addition to reporting a change of tack by Hans Eichel and Wolfgang Clement on wage levels – suggests that the Democratic Left-PDS alliance was making headway:

An early poll for ZDF television showed 18 per cent of people would consider voting for the new leftwing coalition. Mr Lafontaine said he was optimistic the new group could become the third largest party. The conservative opposition currently has an overwhelming lead in opinion polls.

Any observations from Germany on all this?