Well, now it’s official:
Britain, which takes over the presidency of the European Union next month, has postponed indefinitely a troubled referendum on the bloc’s constitution following its rejection in France and the Netherlands, Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office said Monday. Blair’s official spokesman said the failure of the French and Dutch referendums on the charter had to be discussed at the European Council summit later this month. The referendum faced likely defeat in Britain.
Roberto Maroni is back in the Italian press again today, and with another interview. This interview is in ilResto del Carlino. (Interestingly enough they are running an online poll, and the result was running at 51.7% euro to 48.3% lira). Unfortunately the interview is in Italian. I have translated a few extracts under the fold. The big issue that he draws attention to (and I was flagging this in an earlier post) is the apparent desire of Berlusconi not to commit himself if he can help it.
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Das Ordervolumen in der Industrie hat sich von M?rz auf April vorl?ufigen Angaben zufolge[2] preis- und saisonbereinigt[3] um 2,9% verringert, nachdem es im Monat zuvor deutlich angestiegen war (+2,1%). Der Nachfrager?ckgang im April war vor allem auf die Abnahme der Auftragseing?nge aus dem Ausland zur?ckzuf?hren (-5,2%). Die Bestellt?tigkeit im Inland verringerte sich demgegen?ber weniger deutlich (-0,6%).
German Economy and Labour Ministry
Doesn’t this just serve me right, and illustrate Murphy’s law. The first bit of news after I decide to ditch Bloomberg is only available in German! Still, and now cribbing shamfacedly from Bloomberg, I think it is saying:
Factory orders in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, dropped in April for a third month in four……… Orders fell 2.9 percent from March, when they gained 2.1 percent.
Retail sales rose, if only marginally, in May according to NTC Research:
at 50.2, the PMI signalled only a marginal rise in sales as, overall, underlying market demand remained sluggish and retailers were forced to rely on promotional activity to improve their sales, which again impacted negatively on profits. Subdued demand was also highlighted by a further drop in purchasing activity and the sustained contraction of workforces in the sector.
So there is good and bad news packed away inside this number. Also interesting is the spread: The German reading of 53.4 was relatively good, the French one of 50.9 more or less neutral, and the Italian one of 44.4 absolutely appauling. For this, and all the other reasons I’ve been mentioning, we will need to keep a careful eye on Italy in the coming days.
On a methodological point, I’ve decided, following prodding from khr amongst others, to try and make a consciouss effort *not* to take material from Bloomberg, but to use Bloomberg as a kind of weather forecaster, so I know when its raining etc, and try to find a ‘clean’ original source – like NTC – (if such a thing exists, for eg the point Dave VH makes about the services number cited by NTC makes me want to doubt even them, and we certainly all know you can’t count on data from an Italian economics ministry – mind you they are better than the Greek ministry who consistently fail to provide up to date info even to the Commission: OK gripe over 🙂 ). Incidentally there are an interesting collection of links on Bonds info attached to Brad Setser’s post last Friday. Those interested in this abstruse theme could do a lot worse than follow the debate over there.
Well this clears up one niggling little doubt about last weeks ECB meeting. Remember my post – when no means maybe – about how Trichet saying ?I am not telling you anything that could be interpreted as preparing a rate cut,? was actually double talk, and what he meant was I am not telling you anything, but I am winking.
Well now that other ECB stalwart, Otmar Issing, has come to our rescue and explains: “Communication is not only about being explicit. It is also about not answering questions”.
So as Reuters Chief ECB correspondent puts it: “He did it through his silence”.
Sometimes I think it may be a good thing if some of our other institutional representatives (Jean Claude Junker?) could learn from his example.
Bottom Line: this has been done this way because, as I suggested it was politically and institutionally impossible to announce a change of policy at last Thursday’s meeting, a rate change can now be expected anytime after the next meeting.
I don’t know quite why, but somehow I suddenly feel a lot better reading this:
Scientists trying to develop vaccines against Africa’s deadly Marburg and Ebola viruses are reporting an important milestone, a new type of vaccine that prevents the diseases in monkeys. Successfully immunizing monkeys is an essential step toward the goal of producing vaccines for people.
Two new vaccines, one for Marburg and one for Ebola, were 100 percent effective in a study of 12 macaques being published today in the journal Nature Medicine. Monkeys given just one shot of vaccine and later injected with a high dose of virus did not even get sick. Normally, all the animals would be expected to die.
Why does this kind of news always seem to come from Denmark?
Curvy women are more likely to live longer than their slimmer counterparts, researchers have found. Institute of Preventative Medicine in Copenhagen researchers found those with wider hips also appeared to be protected against heart conditions. Women with a hip measurement smaller than 40 inches, or a size 14 would not have this protection, they said. The researchers say hip fat contains a beneficial natural anti-inflammatory…..
“It has been widely reported that if you are apple-shaped, your risk of developing cardiovascular disease is likely to be greater than if you are pear-shaped. “This study provides additional evidence of the association between hip circumference and cardiovascular protection among women.
This is definitely ‘interesting’:
Altering a single gene in a fruit fly can turn its sexual orientation around, causing male flies to lose interest in females, and females to display male mating rituals to other females, according to a study published in the journal Cell on Friday.
The FT is carrying a story today which draws our attention (indirectly) to the fact that events in Iraq may well have more impact on Turkey’s future accession possibilities than the French referendum vote. According to the FT:
“Iraqi Kurdistan’s newly elected regional parliament convened for the first time on Saturday in the northern city of Irbil, paving the way for the unification of a Kurdish self-rule area divided between two rival parties.”
Last week Juan Cole on Informed Comment reported on :
an ongoing dispute between the Kurds, who want an Iraqi federalism that gives “states’ rights” only to Kurdistan but not to other provinces, and the Shiites, who want a federalism that would apply geographically throughout the country. The Shiites want to create a southern super-province to serve as a counter weight to Kurdistan. Shiite leaders are planning a congress that can establish the instrumentalities for creating the region of “Sumer” in the south, which will consist of 3 consolidated provinces.
Given the instability in Iraq, it is hard to say where this will lead, but the Kurdish talk of realising their national aspirations is bound to make the government that sits just across their Northern frontier pretty nervous, especially since it is bound to see the creation of one unified Kurdish region in Iraq as a preliminary to subsequent incorporations. Definitely one to watch.
“Taiwan wants to do high-volume mass production…….Once you want to go to high volume, you have to go China. Once you go China, you have to kill other competitors to become even bigger.”
Mason Su, Iwill General Manager
Iwill manufactures the most powerful small computer in the world.