Blowing The Mole?

This doesn’t look like it’s going to be a good week for GWB, with the Valerie Plame affair far from resolved, some blog attention is now moving back to the issues raised at the time of the arrest of Mohammed Naeem Noor Khan (any connection with Mohammed Barbar?) in the Pakistan more or less exactly a year ago.

Juan Cole has picked up a story initially explored by John Aravosis at AmericaBlog. There are a lot of twists and turns in the story, but it does appear that excessive eagerness to catch the headlines around the time of the Democratic Convention may have inadvertently set off a chain reaction that finally exploded itself in London last Thursday. The suggestion is that when Noor Khan’s name broke in the press, the British police were forced to acted in haste, and that Muhammad Sadique Khan, one of the July 7 bombers, was apparently connected – by a telephone link – to one of the people under surveillance. If this is the case, this would explain Sarkozy’s behaviour at the EU Interior Minister’s summit on Wednesday.

As the IHT article shows, the London bombing was a complex operation, and plenty of details are still unclear. I wouldn’t rule out a Spanish connection at this stage, not in the least:

“Spain has also begun to confront Pakistani-born radicals operating there since the terrorist train bombings in Madrid on March 11, 2004.

After 10 Pakistanis were arrested in September on suspicion of belonging to an Islamic radical support network, the Spanish police discovered a video showing details of a number of buildings in Barcelona.

In November, two more Pakistanis were arrested, and in April, 11 suspects were indicted on terrorism charges.

No direct link has been established between the Barcelona plot and the London bombings, a senior Spanish official said. But the official added that there was every possibility some members of cell were still at large and that Spain and British were pooling their information on the London bombing investigation.”

Update: this piece gives some of the background at the Pakistan end.

Economy and Elections in Italy

Of course the accidental is important in history. The latest example would be how electoralist needs are going to impinge on Italy’s attempts to turn its economic crisis round. A year, at least, may well be lost on false promises and inaction. And as if that weren’t enough, the trifecta may be delivered by ‘terrorist-attack psychosis‘.

Italy aims to reduce its deficit to less than 3 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of 2007 ? a target described by Silvio Berlusconi, prime minister, as ?manageable? and which is in line with commitments given this week to the European Union.

However, Mr Berlusconi?s six-party coalition, trailing behind the centre-left opposition in the opinion polls, is planning a relatively mild 2006 budget to save itself from electoral defeat.

Italy?s economy fell into recession between October 2004 and last March and is plagued by low productivity growth, high unit labour costs, falling international competitiveness and an enormous public debt.

Italy’s Inflation Dropping

Despite warnings from Otmar Issing that “The outlook for price developments has got decidedly gloomier since June”, the situation is far from uniform and far from clear. Yesterday Italy’s national statistical office, ISTAT, announced that annual inflation dropped in June to 1.8%, from 1.9% in May. This was Italy’s lowest annual reading since 1999. Is deflation starting to raise its ugly head? It is too soon to know, but the Italian economy is certainly in its deepest crisis in a generation, and nothing is excluded. Brad Delong posted yesterday about ‘Dials Moving into the Red Zone‘, right now Italy has no shortage of these.

The Human Costs Of War

Controversy continues to surround the problem of assessing non-combatant casualties in time of war. The Swiss based Graduate Institute of International Studies has just published its latest annual small arms survey where it suggests some 39,000 Iraqis have been killed as a direct result of combat or armed violence since the start of the war.

The most relevant part of the report is probably chapter nine “Behind the Numbers: Small Arms and Conflict Deaths” – where, in addition to Iraq, other recent warzones like Guatemala, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Sudan are also assessed. (A chapter summary is available here).
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Suspects Update

Well the Times seems to have the main scoop today. As suggested in my post on suicide bombers yesterday, it is important that they have been identified, but much of the ‘upstream work’ may not be so immediately productive. Police do seem to have a lead from the CCTV images at Luton in that there is apparently a fifth man identified there (which suggests that the station may have been more than a convenient rendez-vous). This ‘fifth man’ would seem to be additional to the ‘mastermind’ and the ‘chemist’. The ‘mastermind is – according to the Times – a Pakistani national, who entered and left the UK before the bombings took place. The ‘chemist’ is alleged to be Egyptian-born chemistry lecturer (or biochemistry PhD according to who you read) Magdi El-Nashar who is is “understood to have rented one of the Leeds addresses where explosives were found”. He is now reported to be back in Egypt. (Egypt rings a bell, since Juan Cole’s lexical analysis of the initial claim from a group calling itself ‘Secret Organisation of al-Qaeda Jihad in Europe’ suggested that the author of the text might be of Egyptian origin). The idea that this group might be the ‘intellectual authors’ of the bombing is given some credence by the ‘burning cross’ theory. (This supposes that the bus-bomber in fact wanted to board the Northern Line). The original claim statement said “Britain is now burning with fear, terror and panic in its northern, southern, eastern and western quarters.”

Obviously much of the above is still at the conjecture stage, but it does suggest a fairly complex network behind the four suicide bombers, and it also suggests that there is much more relevant information to come before we will get anything like a full picture.

BTW: if you are having trouble with our comments facility, worry not, you are not alone. We are working to try and fix it even while you read.

Tour de Lance. Final Commentary.

Alright, that’s not a particularly clever headline. I know you have probably read it a couple of hundred times in the course of the last years if you at all opened the sports section of your newspaper of choice in the month of July. But with only days left to the official retirement of Lance Armstrong from professional cycling, this year – despite the terror in London – the Tour, its most successful rider in history, as well as all alleged challengers are getting the additional amount of public attention only available in years without Olympics or a major international football competition.
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On Predictability.

While the entire world is admiring Londoners for their ability to not let the terror destroy their way of life, while London mayor Ken Livingston is taking the Tube each morning, because not doing so would prove the terrorists strategy right, the British government is reinforcing its ongoing quest to get hold of as much information about citizens as possible. I’d call it “opportunistic”, they’d call it “concerned”.
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France Suspends Schengen

French interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy has announced that in the light of what has happened in London France is reintroducing European Union border controls. There is a clause within the Schengen Agreement which allows for controls to be reinstated and Sarkozy said that this had been activated by France. The decision is described as temporary. Such suspensions have occured in the past for sporting events (or in the case of Spain for EU summits), but this idea of ‘temporary’ might be a little longer.

There is suggestion in the Italian press that the Netherlands may also have done so, but I still can’t find confirmation. Italy has explicitly said it isn’t going to suspend. The UK of course isn’t party to the Schengen agreement.

WaPo gets it wrong

Sunday’s Washington Post had an article by one Anne Dumas that’s been blogged here and there, provocatively titled What’s American and Envied by France?. It starts with a rather shocking assertion that has, unsurprisingly, been quoted in a lot of the bloggage:

[N]ot a single enterprise founded here in the past 40 years has managed to break into the ranks of the 25 biggest French companies. By comparison, 19 of today’s 25 largest U.S. companies didn’t exist four decades ago. That’s why France is looking to the United States for lessons.

Alas, this quotable assertion is completely false.
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