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Monthly Archives: December 2005
Terence, This Is Stupid Stuff, Part 2
It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single quotation on the cover of a book is not a reliable guide to its contents.
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Terence, This Is Stupid Stuff
The German newspaper whose website is now a little better organized (but no so well organized, you understand, that I can actually provide a link to the story in question) published what ought to be an interesting tale of changing tastes in toys, “Per Modellbahn aufs Abstellgleis” or, roughly, “By Model Train onto the Siding.” There would even seem to be comparative advantage in such a story, as toy-making is one of Germany’s traditional industries. Or as defenders of the romantic image would have it, handicrafts.
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Not before time…
… but a welcome development nonetheless (and, perhaps, a harbinger of better times to come): controversial Banca d’Italia boss Antonio Fazio decides to spend more time with his family.
Bo Malmberg and Evo Morales
Bo Malmberg is a demographer and he works at the Stockholm-based Institute For Future Studies. Evo Morales is the ‘flamante’ President of Bolivia. OK, this much is clear, now where’s the connection?
Well, Brad Delong says of Morales’ election, citing Pyrrhus of Epirus, Another Such Victory and We Are Lost, while the Financial Times informs us that the result of the election is likely to cause consternation in the United States.
However, rather than allowing ourselves to fall victim to too much schadenfreude, maybe we would better employ our energies trying to understand why Morales is happening, and why right now. This is where Bo Malmberg comes in handy.
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A new hope?
Many thanks to David for offering me a chance to raise my profile just before the second edition of the Satin Pajama Awards with a two-weeks guest-blogging stint here at AFOE.
For the 99% of you who don’t already know me, I usually display my limited knowledge of economics and politics at my own blog Ceteris Paribus and also, though not that often since a certain fateful 29th of May, at the group blog Publius. Oh, and I’m also French, which explains my awful English style and may or may not be a good reason to disregard my analysis about European matters.
Anyway, enough about me, since the quite unexpected European budget deal of last night offers plenty of things to write about.
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A Big Problem?
Just a brief query: Can anyone think of the last time one of the big four countries in the EU — Germany, France, Britain, Italy — had a successful presidency of the Union?
It looks like the UK’s turn at the top will end without a budget agreement, which is fine for Blair’s domestic politics, but not so good for running the 25-country EU. Italy’s last run was marred by an initial spat between Berlusconi’s government and the European Parliament and never really got back into gear. Germany’s last presidency, back in ’99, featured the resignation of the Commission, the resignation of Germany’s finance minister and the war in Kosovo. The French presidency in 2000 ended with the summit in Nice, one of the least productive EU summits in memory. (EU mandarins from Central Europe still haven’t forgotten how Chirac gratuitously slighted them at Nice, setting the tone for his approach to enlargement.)
Breakthroughs seem to come during the presidencies of smaller countries. In recent years, think Ireland and Denmark. In the interests of better governance, maybe the Union should ban big countries from holding the presidency?
The Pébereau Report
According to the French writer Rabelais debt and deceipt are almost invariably inextricably linked. So it is appropriate that it should be a French banker – Michel Pébereau – who takes it upon himself to try to bring this harsh reality home to a French public which still seems excessively steeped in the finer details of the arts of self-deception. Pébereau does not mince words: over a quarter of a century century French public policy has accumulated for itself a national debt has neither supported economic growth nor reduced unemployment. The debt is “asphyxiating” and unless the State acts to reduce its spending now France will “lose control of the financial situation†before the end of the decade. Indeed so stark is the picture Pébereau paints that French economy minister Thierry Breton, on reading the report, was moved to comment: “Unbeknownst to them, our children are already financing part of our standard of living.â€
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Wolfgang Lutz and the Low Fertility Trap
Back in July I published a post about Austrian demographer Wolfgang Lutz’s hypothesis that those countries which sustain total fertility rates below 1.5 for any length of time may have fallen into a self-reinforcing low-fertility trap. Old Rottenhat (Ray to his friends) argued in comments that I had explained the reasons for the existence of low fertility but that I had not justified the idea that this was a ‘trap’. Old Rottenhat was right, and taking advantage of the fact that Lutz himself has now given a fuller outline of the hypothesis at the recent Postponement of Childbearing in Europe Conference (see presentation) I will now try and remedy this lacuna.
So here finally Ray, is your reply: I hope it is something which indeed goes beyond the obvious.
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Youth Unemployment in the UK
The FT today has an article about how long-term youth unemployment is now back at 1998 levels despite a 5 billion pound benefits-to-jobs programme . Now if you go to this url, and have a look at the population pyramids for the UK you might begin to see part of the explanation for why this is happening. The cohorts now entering the UK labour market are slightly thicker than the previous ones. Coincidentally I have just put up a post on Afoe which mentions Richard Easterlin’s disadvantaged cohort theory. What is happening in the UK at the present time would, IMHO, be a good example of the Easterlin effect at work.
Long-term youth unemployment has returned to about the level it was when the government’s flagship New Deal was introduced in 1998, casting doubt over the value of the £5bn benefits-to-jobs programme.
The sharp rise in long-term youth unemployment, which has increased by 60 per cent since its low point two and a half years ago, was revealed by figures from the Office for National Statistics yesterday.