Italian Elections 2006 Part II

Well the election campaign in Italy trundles on, and issues are starting to emerge. One of the more curious details to have come out in recent days refers to the size and shape of the voting card. It is to be some 65 centimetres long with canditates arranged horizontally rather than vertically across the strip (if this seems like a long ticket, some US cards are up to a metre long apparently, although just why AGI online choses the US for its comparison is beyond me).

Beyond the ticket itself, Italy’s leading independent newspaper Corriere della Sera has just published an editorial coming down (for the first time I think) on the side of the centre left coalition lead by Romano Prodi (declaration of interest: CdS is my preferred reading among Italian newspapers). The reasoning for this decision seems to run something along the lines that the Berlusconi government has taken policy decisions more in the light of the need to resolve internal coalition differences than in the light of the real needs and interests of the country: to which ‘amen’.
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EU Energy Policy II

Well the new EU energy plan has been released (and here, and you can also find the actual Commission statement here). The final product is pretty much as the leaks suggested.

As was indicated yesterday, Russia related concerns are central. The FT comments:

Russia supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas needs and the Union’s dependence on the country for energy was illustrated in January when a dispute between Moscow and Kiev disrupted gas deliveries to the EU.

All of this was I think anticipated on this blog back in January when the Gazprom/Ukraine dispute first really broke into the public arena. What wasn’t anticipated was this, and especially the gas related dimension of the Suez/Gaz de France merger.

The major changes taking shape in Europe’s energy sector at present undercut the arguments of those who have long been predicting a gradual break-up of monopolies and the disappearance of the industry’s biggest players. The planned merger of Suez and Gaz de France to counter an offensive by Enel and Veolia and the fight between Gas Natural and E.On for the hand of Endesa make it abundantly clear that concentration remains very much a watchword in the branch and that even powerful old public monopolies like Electricite de France could be forced into marriages with others in future.

None of the reasons trotted out to justify the merger between Suez and Gaz de France, to cite but that operation, dwelled on the future role of Russia in Europe’s energy landscape. True, the Russians aren’t directly involved in any of the operations underway in Western Europe. On further examination, however, Gazprom’s moves in recent months could be seen as justification for the consolidation.

The future Suez/Gaz de France grouping will become the leading buyer and the top supplier of gas in Europe. As such, it will rank as one of Gazprom’s prime customers in the world. That, however, isn’t necessarily good news for Gazprom. In its dealings with such a powerful client the Russian monopoly won’t be able to exert as much pressure upon it as upon a smaller entity, let alone bully it.

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Katja Gelinsky’s Peculiar America, Pt. 2

This time on the front page of the German newspaper whose web site has marginally improved. “Prosecutor demands death penalty for Moussaoui”

Well blow me down. In their closing statements, do German prosecutors generally call for less than the maximum punishment for the offense being tried? “Well yes, your honor, we have just spent weeks telling you how guilty the accused is. But never mind that. We believe the accused should be let off with a slap on the wrist.” I don’t think so.

Think what you will of the death penalty, that is the maximum penalty for the crimes to which Moussaoui has pled guilty. The prosecutor would be remiss in his duty not to seek it. Think what you will of the case against Moussaoui, this is the prosecutor speaking, not the judge, still less the jury. He has a duty as an advocate, and he is discharging it.

A prosecutor seeking the maximum penalty is not even news, much less page one. Unless you have a peculiar view of America.

EU Energy Policy

Well leaks seem to abound this morning about a draft policy paper which European Commission president José Manuel Barroso is circulating prior to the March 23 summit (and here). According to the leaks the paper proposes a coordinated approach designed to achieve a new long-term partnership with Russia and the creation of a gas stockpile, which could be released as a gesture of ‘solidarity’ in times of disruption.

Some difficulties are already evident, expecially in the light of the resurgence of neo-protectionism in some important EU states which seems destined to place limits on any attempts to increase cross-border connections and competition. Another possible issue is the idea of approaching Iran as an alternative gas provider, a suggestion which seems to highlight better than anything the fragility of our present supplies, especially if Iran and Russia were ever to decide that it was in their interests to have a common policy vis-a-vis the EU.

Demography Matters

Well as everyone who reads Afoe assiduously already knows this is my opininion: demography does matter. And now this is doubly official as some of us demography enthusiasts have just set up the demography matters weblog. This does not mean that you, gentle readers, will now be completely spared, but it does probably mean that my Afoe posting may become a little less ‘monothematic’ given that I now have another outlet from which to vent my obsessions.

Troglodytes in Turkey?

Well it seems that Spain’s troglodytes aren’t the only ones hovering around the EU arena. Turkey’s Land Forces Commander Gen. Yasar Buyukanit might be another case it seems:

As we feared in our editorial on Monday the accusations from the prosecutor that the Land Forces commander tried to influence the judicial process by making statements on behalf of a defendant have been blown out of proportion that could well turn into a full-blown domestic crisis….

The background to this situation is explained here:

The reasons for the tension between the government and the military, which are now rising over Gen. Buyukanit, are briefly as follows:

Erdogan’s presidential bid: Some circles claim that the AK Party leader wants to become president through majority support in Parliament in 2007. But people close to the AK Party indicate that Gen. Buyukanit, who is set to become chief of General Staff this August, is the biggest obstacle to Erdogan’s presidential aspirations. That’s the reason for rumors about Gen. Buyukanit sparked before he became Land Forces Commander and that some circles argued that the AK Party didn’t want to see Buyukanit helm the land forces

Uneasy AK Party members: The AK Party deputies see the presence of Buyukanit — who often inveighs against fundamentalist movements, uses Kemalist undertones in his statements, makes statements contradicting the AK Party’s policies on many issues ranging from Cyprus to northern Iraq, and terrorism to religious vocational Imam Hatip high schools — as a direct threat to their rule. Some AK Party deputies don’t want Buyukanit to assume the post to show the AK Party’s power to everyone. It’s striking that some AK Party deputies say, “He did what we couldn’t do,” referring to the prosecutor that prepared the indictment.

Now from the standpoint of my sparse knowledge of Turkish politics it is hard to tell just what sort of a ‘troglodyte’ General Buyukanit actually is, or indeed whether or not he is a troglodyte at all. One thing however is clear: the balance between military and political institutions in Turkey is far from ‘normalised’ and a right royal battle seems to be going on.

On another front, this article by Ayhan Simsek draws attention to the extent to which developments in Iraq may cast a long and important shadow over Turkey’s EU accession aspirations.

Stefan Geen’s simple Turing test hack for MT 3.x

Stefan Geen’s simple anti-spam Turing test hack is fantastically efficient – you’ll almost never get any spam. Unlike MT’s anti-spam measures, it saves bandwidth (and, of course, it actually works); unlike Blogger’s turing test, it’s not unbelievably tedious. I’ve put together a tutorial for people who use MT 3.x. (An improved version of the one by Patrik Strang’s, which is no longer online). If you have older version of MT you can read Stefan’s original post (don’t miss the updates).

The hack involves requiring a human mind to complete a simple instruction, such as “type the letter ‘F’ in this textbox” or “Type the third letter of this sentence in the textbox,” before MT accepts the accompanying comment.

Here’s how you do it: In your cgi-bin folder, locate the file Comments.pm. The filepath should end with /lib/MT/App/Comments.pm or something similar (It depends on what version of MT you have). Click edit and do a search for the following piece of code:

if (!$q->param(‘text’)) {
return $app->handle_error($app->translate(“Comment text is required.”));
}

Right under it, you add:

unless ($q->param(‘spam’) eq ‘F’) {
return $app->handle_error($app->translate(“Type the anti-spam text exactly as shown.”));
}

Save and close.

Then you must paste this snippet of code

<p><label for=”spam”>Today’s anti-spam measures are brought to you by the letter “F”. Please type it here:</label> <input id=”spam” name=”spam” />

in three different places, which all contain the form elements for commenting:

First you must open the file Contexhandlers.pm. (In early versions of MT3 it’s called Context.pm). The filepath should be something like cgi-bin/mt/lib/MT/Template/ContextHandlers.pm. Search the code for

<p><label for=”url”>URL:
<input tabindex=”1″ type=”text” name=”url” id=”url” value=”$comment_url” />

and add the snippet of code.

Then search for

<p><label for=”url”><MT_TRANS phrase=”URL:”>
<input tabindex=”3″ type=”text” name=”url” id=”url” value=”$comment_url” />

and add the same snippet. Save and close.

Now go to the templates screen in the MT control panel, click on the Individual Entry Archive Template and paste the same lines a third time; under the comment submission form code.

What happens now is that when a comment is submitted, MT checks that the accompanying question is answered correctly; if it is, the comment is accepted. The question is asked in the HTML, the answer is found in the Comments.pm code.

Sustaining Growth in Turkey

I don’t suppose it’s much of a secret that Turkey is one of the main ‘growth tigers’ in the ambit of the EU. The big issue is, I suppose, just how sustainable Turkey’s growth is. Well the World Bank is on the story, and now has a Country Economic Memorandum entitled Promoting Sustained Growth and Convergence with the European Union. As the FT notes:

Turkey needs to create more jobs, get more women into the workforce, and send its children to school for longer if it is to improve its chances of joining the European Union, the World Bank said on Monday.

I absolutely agree, and address the significant inequality between Western Turkey and the Kurdish east, may I add. But I do find myself having the thought, if Turkey does all the things which she is being encouraged to do. If Turkey becomes one of the largest and most dynamic economies in the neighbourhood of the EU, will this really increase the membership chances, or will this only make the resistance in some quarters even stronger?