Author Archives: Doug Merrill

About Doug Merrill

Freelance journalist based in Tbilisi, following stints in Atlanta, Budapest, Munich, Warsaw and Washington. Worked for a German think tank, discovered it was incompatible with repaying US student loans. Spent two years in financial markets. Bicycled from Vilnius to Tallinn. Climbed highest mountains in two Alpine countries (the easy ones, though). American center-left, with strong yellow dog tendencies. Arrived in the Caucasus two weeks before its latest war.

Armenian Accession

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The German newspaper whose web site has marginally improved published an interview today* with Arthur Baghdasarian, leader of the second-largest party in the Armenian parliament. He has been president of parliament since 2003, and he is seen as a leading candidate to be president of the republic in 2008. They talk about whether or not Armenia needs a revolution, though not what color it might have, probably because Baghdasarian opts for reform rather than revolution.

More interesting for afoe readers is this quote: “Armenia’s future is not in the union of Russia and Belarus. Armenia’s future is in the European Union and NATO.” Later on he adds, “I am convinced there is no alternative [to EU accession]. Not just Armenia, but also Georgia, and why not Azerbaijan as well. We are small countries, and for us that will be the best structure for cooperation and peace. Europe needs a secure, conflict-free Caucasus and democratic neighbors.”

Whether or not the current 25 members are ready for enlargement, much less the old 15 (or 12 or 6 or whatever), potential enlargees are eager. The EU will have to answer these questions one way or another. My bet is on more members.

* Annoyingly, it is only available online in pay-per-view. It’s on page 5 of the paper version, if you have access.

Doha Adieu?

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Steve Clemons, who’s quite adept at reading the Washington tea leaves, writes that the Doha round of trade negotiations is effectively over.

Why? For most of the present US administration, Bob Zoellick had been the US Trade Representative. Zoellick was an old hand, wise in the ways of both trade and Washington. But when Condelezza Rice was appointed Secretary of State, Zoellick went over to become her deputy. His successor, Rob Portman, was a Congressman from Ohio who had been involved with the nuts and bolts of trade legislation for many years. He was serious and experienced, with friends on Capitol Hill. Now Portman has resigned as Trade Representative to head the Office of Management and Budget; a bigger responsibility, but not connected to trade.

The upshot is that the USTR position will now be empty for some time, the current president’s authority to negotiate agreements that the Congress cannot amend is expiring soon, and the administration sees little hope of progress in the Doha round before it leaves office. Looks like it could be the end of the line for Doha.

Premature Evaluation, pt. 4 (The Hungarians)

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I suppose I should be happy that there is a recent, one-volume general history of the Hungarians. Their history is not exactly the stuff of bestsellers, even if Hungarians were crucial in everything from computers to the atomic bomb to Hollywood studios. Ten million people, give or take, speaking a non-Indo-European language in and around the Carpathian basin. Their exact origins unknown, their polity long divided, their armies prone to getting wiped out.
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Putin’s Price

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Without support from Russia, Belarus’ authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, would have a much more difficult time staying in power. A substantial share of recent economic growth in Belarus has come from the difference between the below-market prices it pays for oil and natural gas from Russia and the world-market prices it receives for refined products and for oil and gas transported to Western markets. But now the bill for Putin’s backing is starting to come due.

According to reports in the Russian newspaper Kommersant, Russia is demanding a share of the revenue that Belarus receives for the gasoline it exports; this gasoline is refined from Russian oil that is imported at subsidized rates. The Russian demand is estimated at roughly EUR 900 million, a not insignificant sum for a poor-ish country like Belarus. Furthermore, Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned natural gas monopoly, is tripling what it charges Belarus for gas beginning in 2007. Gazprom also wants control over the Belarusian company that transports gas through the country to Western Europe. Negotiations on these last two items are set to start in early May, but it’s hard to see what cards Belarus holds. Lukashenko will pay the price for Russian support.

Premature Evaluation, pt 3 (The Fatal Shore)

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What to do when you haven’t finished a book but find yourself with something to say about it?

Convention dictates that one should finish a book before reviewing it (although I have my doubts about any number of published reviews), but on the other hand, The Fatal Shore, by Robert Hughes, was published 20 years ago; this is not breaking news. So out with the convention, in with the thoughts.
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Katja Gelinsky’s Peculiar America, Pt. 3

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It’s time to play the Gelinsky game, in which one of Germany’s leading newspapers confirms prejudices about the United States, not by making things up, of course, but through slanted selection of stories. Here are seven headlines from Wednesday’s news flow in the US. Which two stories were chosen for Thursday’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung? (Answer below the fold, and for fairness I’ve excluded stories that would be clearly covered by the other reporter in the bureau.)

1. Mass[achusetts] Bill Requires Health Coverage
2. Theme Park-Like Camp for Cub Scouts Built on Old Disney Site
3. DHS [Department of Homeland Security] Spokesman Is Accused of Soliciting Teen Online
4. Hurricane Forecast: Calmer Than ’05
5. Majority of 32 Wisconsin Towns Vote for Iraq Pullout
6. CDC: Kids, men are fatter; women’s obesity peaking
7. Rivers Near Cresting Threaten Minn[esota] Town
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Changing Colors

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The CDU in Baden-Wuerttemberg is conducting negotiations with the Greens in that state to decide if the two parties should form a coalition government. If they do, it will be the first “black-green” coalition at the state level, and another sign of fluidity in Germany’s post-reunification party politics.

Update: Maybe next time. The CDU and FDP will, according to reports today, continue the coalition that has run the southwest for the last 10 years. Germany changes slowly.
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Take Me Out

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Once upon a time, before it became the Paris edition of the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune published its late sports editor Dick Roraback’s ode to baseball’s opening day each year.

Under the fold, “The Crack of the Bat.”

(The fifth stanza is current again, after reflecting a bygone age for more than three decades. The Buc and the Nat refer to the Pittsburgh Pirates [buccaneers] and the Washington Nationals. In 1971, major league baseball left Washington, not returning until last season when the relocated Montreal Expos became the new Nationals. The fields in the stanza, Forbes and Griffith, are long gone. Forbes’ replacement is also gone, and Griffith’s replacement’s replacement is moving from drawing board to construction site this year.)
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Greatness, Andante

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Two years ago, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung began publishing a series of 50 great novels from the 20th century. It’s a good list, and I’ve been slowly reading my way through it. Emphasis on slowly. The newspaper never planned on keeping the editions in print indefinitely, and indeed, the smartly designed and inexpensive (EUR 4.90!) hardbacks are officially out of print. (The series’ original home page is now 404, just to add to the indignity.) The Sueddeutsche has followed up with series of popular music (mostly mediocre because of rights issues), children’s books (inviting, but not yet inviting enough for me to actually buy one) and now mysteries (a genre I tend not to read much of).

I’ve been writing capsule reviews periodically as I make my way — shortest to longest as a general rule — through the list. It’s been a while since the last installment, so here goes.
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Fun With Maps

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For those of you who aren’t in the habit of reading the fine print in the left-hand column — especially the one-third who can’t tell us apart in the current poll results — this is an invitation to add your location to the frappr map of afoe readers. Join your peers from Wellington, New Zealand to Kailua, Hawaii, more than a dozen European countries and even exotic places like Kansas and Texas (you know who you are). David set the map up last October, and it’s neat to see where folks are.