Author Archives: Tobias Schwarz

About Tobias Schwarz

German, turned 30 a while ago, balding slowly, hopefully with grace. A carnival junkie, who, after studies in business and politics in Mannheim, Paris, and London, is currently living in his hometown of Mainz, Germany, again. Became New Labourite during a research job at the House of Commons, but difficult to place in German party-political terms. Liberal in the true sense of the term.

His political writing is mostly on A Fistful of Euros and on facebook these days. Occasional Twitter user and songwriter. His personal blog is almost a diary. Even more links at about.me.

We don’t have a Plan B.

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Because no one has one. Well, no one has a public plan about how to handle one or more rejections of the European consitution in upcoming national referenda. But as the French referendum is approaching and the numbers do not look too good for the “yes” camp, unofficial Plan Bs are suddenly everywhere, if only to scare the naysaying Gauls into becoming responsible citizens. I know it’s common knowledge by now, but let me repeat it once more – a French “non” would be the worst case, and have possibly nuclear consequences for the EU as we know it. So scaring the voters a little seems like a reasonable approach to me.

In this vein, Bettina Thalmeyer of the Munich based Center for Applied Policy Research has put together a list of possibilities for the day after (and has published a paper about it (in German)) – hoping that it will not be May 30 (the translation and slight modifications are mine, table in the extended).

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Pope John Paul II has died

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As Der Spiegel’s Matthias Mattussek writes –

“Looking back, there will be disagreement whether Woytila was a pope of inclusion or exclusion. […] He was conservative, he was obstinate, he was a provacation. He said, kneel down, pray a rosary. But millions of people on all continents have been captured … by this pope’s fight, and who does not pray will at least show respect, even in enmity. Bidding farewell to him, the world suddenly appears to be more dangerous.”

I suppose, being as controversial as Karol Woytila was is a sign of success in an organisation as diverse and global as is the Roman Catholic Church. Mattussek is right – even if we do not agree with him on theological or political issues, or not even share his faith at all – it is impossible not to respect this pope’s achievements.

The BBC has collected some reactions to his death, here, and here.

From Salvador to Rio.

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Having missed my flight from Salvador back to Rio de Janeiro, I find myself in the airport?s cyber-caf? with a little extra time to spend. Alas, not enough to finish and type the lengthy post commenting on Amitai Etzioni?s thoughts about guilt and responsibility ? I began hand-writing it on another flight, but finding the right words usually takes time, and in this matter evidently more than with respect to most others. But I found something else sufficiently interesting to bring to your attention – browsing through online news I found some articles highlighting the ever increasing collateral damage caused when you let a US president crash on your couch.
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A Common Public Sphere.

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The extraordinary nature of the disaster and the suffering caused by the Tsunami that hit East Asia are obviously calling for extraordinary measures. I’m not sure this is the first time the entire EU felt the need to jontly commemorate, but I’m not aware of any previous instance.

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – The European Union [held] a three-minute silence at 12pm (11am GMT) today to commemorate the victims of the tsunami as the official death toll rises to around 150,000.

The EU [asked] “the whole of the European Union to observe three minutes of silence in order to show solidarity and mourn the victims of the disaster.”

On noon today, most of Europe indeed honoured the Tsunami victims. Planes did not take off or land, stocks were not bought or sold, food was not served or eaten as millions of Europeans stood silent, praying for or otherwise remembering those whose lives were taken or destroyed by a single giant wave on December 26.

An Orange President.

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While the official results of yesterday’s re-run Presidential election will likely not be announced for a couple of days, opposition candidate Viktor Yushshenko looks certain to win this time – if the country’s Central Election Commission has been doing a better job than in November. The BBC has calculated that he has “an unassailable lead” over his opponent. The numbers currently available on the election commission’s website do not indicate any self-evident fraudulent activities (thanks to Jonathan Edelstein for the link), and some of the 12,000 election observers were quick to assert that – while there may have been some fraud – this election was very likely sufficiently legal.

Despite their limited credibility among Janukovich supporters, the international observers’ verdict will carry an enormous weight with respect to a possible legal challenge of certain results already announced by Mr Yanukovich. It is unclear what his options are. Outgoing President Kutchma, a former ally, now hopes that Mr Yanukovich will concede the election after a reasonably short period of face saving legal efforts, the BBC reports.

If the orange celebrations on Kyiv’s independence square following Mr Yushshenko’s claim of victory last night are any indication, Kyiv’s center might well remain an orange bastion until Mr Yushshenko will have eventually been sworn in as President.

It might be cold, but Kyiv is likely the place to go for great new year’s festivities this year…

The World As Optimum Currency Area?

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I was a little surprised to read in the Christmas edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (not yet online, subscription wall, in German) that Robert Mundell seems to have changed his mind. In his seminal 1961 paper about monetary integration, he famously stated that “the optimum currency area is not the world”. Now it appears he favors a sort-of worldwide currency union, initially comprising Dollar, Euro, and Yen (apparently, he’s also made that point earlier this year in Lib?ration (subscription wall, in French)).
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Re-run Run-up.

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Speaking to reporters during the Russian-German governmental consultations, Russian President Putin confirmed that he will respect the result of the – less manipulated – re-run of the Ukrainian Presidential election next Sunday.

“I know Mr Yushchenko as I do the current Prime Minister Mr Yanukovich … He has also been a member of President (Leonid) Kuchma’s team, like Yanukovich, and so I don’t see any problem.”

Mr Putin also dismissed interpretations of the event that suggest he has been dealt a personal defeat. Not that anybody expected anything else, but I suppose hearing this will prevent some more people in Ukraine from playing electoral games this time.

Meanwhile, on Monday night Ukrainians could witness a tv debate with a kafkaesquely transformed Yanukovich. His increasing political isolation apparently became most evident when he, who had earlier accused his opponent, Mr Yushenko, of being an American puppet, suggested that the “Orange Revolution” was staged by the incumbent President Kuchma, with the knowledge of the opposition’s leader, in order to prevent him from opposing the Oligarchic system.

Mr Yanukovich, who had very recently supported secessionist sentiments in Eastern Ukraine, now sent his campaign staff to explain that it would be still unceratain if Yanukovich supporters would tolerate a Yushenko victory on the 26th, while he attempted to present himself as savior of national unity with an offer to create a government of “national unity”, and even asked for to be forgiven for insulting the Orange Protesters.

The Frankfurter Allgemeine (German) and the Kyiv Post have more, also on the poisoning of Mr Yushenko.

Hungary Ratifies EU Constitution.

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It is probably a mere coincident that the last troops of Hungary’s Iraq contingent completed their withdrawal from the current coalition of the willing as the Hungarian Parliament voted 322 to 12 in favor of the European Constitution yesterday, more than the required two-thirds majority. President Ferenc Madl’s signature on the law will formally make Hungary the second country to ratify the document (via AP, AFP).