Category Archives: A Few Euros More

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The Euro Continues Its Decline

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The euro fell to a seven-month low in Asia and had the biggest fluctuation of any currency on concern the rejection of a proposed European Union constitution will slow the region’s economic integration…………

Against the dollar, the euro fell to $1.2370, the lowest since Oct. 14. It bought $1.2390 at 2:05 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.2475 late in Asia yesterday, according to electronic currency- dealing system EBS. The euro will probably decline toward $1.22, Jacobs said.

Update I: Now it’s hit $1.2371.

The euro’s initially muted reaction to the French vote on a holiday-thinned Monday turned into a sharp fall when it broke below key $1.2450 levels, pushing as low as $1.2371.

Now it’s at 1.2315, and this is also becoming a dollar rise story as the yen is also begining to fall against the USD.

“The Euro lost support at 1.2450 in Asia on Tuesday and this pushed the Euro down to a low of 1.2315. The convincing break below 1.25 against the US currency will reinforce negative Euro sentiment and will raise speculation over a move towards the 1.20 level in the medium term.”

To be continued.

Angela Merkel Promises…….

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Angela Merkel, the German opposition Christian Democrat leader, has promised that initiatives to cut unemployment would ?be at the centre of my thoughts and actions?. Laudible ideals, delivering on them may prove rather more difficult than Ms Merkel imagines. Still, she is focusing the debate on the relevant areas:

Mrs Merkel acknowledged that Germany was one of the most expensive countries to do business. ?We have to be better [than competitors] to the same extent that we are more expensive [than them]?, by being ?quicker and more flexible?. She said ?globalisation is now the context in which our ideas of democracy and of a social market economy must prove themselves?.

Policy priorities would include measures to reduce government debt and to cut non-wage labour costs paid by employers as social security contributions, in part by introducing a new tax-funded health insurance system. Labour market measures would include a loosening of job protection rules and more decentralised collective bargaining.

In fact they are so relevant and to the point that it is hard to see Schr?der disagreeing with them. Interesting campaign in prospect.

Mandelson Calls For Reflection

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Wow, I seem to be agreeing with Mandelson. Hardly surprising, apart from all the sleeze rows, I have the feeling he is the most competent politician working out of Brussels:

Striking a different tone from European Commission President Jos? Manuel Barroso, Mandelson appears to be suggesting a ?plan B?.

He argues that should the French ?non? be an obstacle to the EU constitution Europe should seek a ?new consensus?.

EU leaders could set out a vision of Europe?s policy direction and then draw up a fresh institutional blueprint.

?I think that consensus on the centre ground is there to be mobilised. One that rejects the populism of left and right,? he said.

Mandelson noted that future ratifications ? including a British vote ? would depend on whether the EU constitution was still viable.

?There will be a period of reflection,? he said early on Monday morning.

?If there is a constitutional treaty to ratify, I am confident it will be put to British people in a referendum.?

Denmark, Sweden and Finland to Continue With Ratification

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For now, at any rate, the Nordic countries are to continue with the ratification process. We will see how this eveolves as the days pass.

We naturally respect the decision of the French people but it is crucial that Danes be allowed make their own decision in the autumn,” Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Denmark’s prime minister said.

There would be no change of plans should Dutch voters also reject the treaty on Wednesday, he added

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Goran Persson, Sweden’s prime minister, described the French result as “a severe setback for the treaty” but pledged to continue the Swedish ratification process.

Matti Vanhanen, the Finnish prime minister, said he would proceed with the ratification process and expressed hope that other EU states would do likewise.

Barroso Changing His Position?

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This piece in the FT seems to suggest that Barroso may in fact be moving away from the ‘bsuiness as usual’ line:

The European Union was on Monday braced for a wave of possible No votes against the EU constitution, after French voters decisively rejected it.Officially EU leaders stuck to the line that all member states should ratify the treaty as normal, but privately there are growing doubts about whether that is possible.

José Manuel Barroso, European Commission president, admitted there was “a risk of contagion” with hostility to the treaty spreading to other countries. ….

The Economist On The Result

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The Economist is more or less positive about the outcome, of course it probably didn’t favour the constitution anyway:

French voters have rejected the proposed European Union constitution by a decisive margin. The flawed constitution is now probably dead, though the EU will get by without it. For President Jacques Chirac, however, it is a crushing defeat

Incidentally the Economist is now putting virtually all the Glbal Agenda section. I don’t know what this portends for their online influence.

Blog Roundup, referendum edition

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DJ Nozem: Spinning the ‘No’

Euan MacDonald (Transatalantic Assembly): A little more on the EU Constitution

S?bastien Llorca (The Fundamental principles of…) Towards a NO in France? Why?

Nosemonkey: Europe is not ambitious enough

Jerome a Paris (Daily Kos): France Votes (VII). It’s tomorrow. My bet.

Ulrich Speck: Making Sense of The French Vote. A Study in Orwellianism

Belgravia Dispatch: Why the Likely Non?

Jasper Emmering:
Maybe I just don’t get it…..

Guy on the Dutch referendum debate.

Les raisons de mon “oui”, par Emmanuel (Publius)

Marek (The Agonist): Lies and Xenophobia – the Bankruptcy of the French Left

La R?volution continue.

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The Guardian Newsblog has a nice summary of the reasons Why the French are saying ‘non’. I’m not sure they will in the end, but in case they do, it will be a political earthquake. To help us understand the near B-plan European future, Janis A. Emmanouilidis and Bettina Thalmaier from the Center for Applied Policy Research and the Bertelsmann Foundation have put together an executive summary of their thoughts on this issue (that is also available in German).