Mounting Tensions in Iraq

This is becoming more and more preoccupying:

Thousands of Shiites, many waving Islam’s holy book over their heads, protested the U.S. presence in
Iraq on Friday after the detention of several supporters of a radical cleric, while Sunnis shut down places of worship elsewhere in a show of anger over alleged sectarian violence against the minority.

Again, this is crying out for a much longer post.

French Economic Slowdown Puts More Pressure on May 29

French economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter and this is bound to have a negative impact on yesterdays ‘big push’ to win support for the ‘yes’ in the European constitution referendum. Gross domestic product in what is Europe’s third-largest economy grew January -March by only 0.2%. This compares with the October-December period, when it expanded by a revised 0.7%.
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German President Criticises UK ‘Stereotypes’

After the sorry incident of the Independent ‘racism scare’ yesterday, I really have to say I can sympathise with Germans who are getting tired of being treated as if they were all ‘Hitlers Children’.

“Germany’s federal president Horst K?hler called on the British people on Thursday to drop their “stereotypical” and “negative” views of Germany, in comments that look likely to revive debate on problems in British/German relations”….”Germans have a bigger affinity to Britain than the other way round,” he said. In unusually outspoken comments, he added: “I fear that German stereotypes in Britain are largely negative. Britain should take a more open view of Germany.” He criticised British schools for focusing only on the Nazi period when they taught German history..

Sometime I would write a longer post on all this. I am not sure that all German stereotypes in the UK are as negative as K?hler fears. Unless things have changed a lot recently there was always a tremendous regard for German craftsmanship, and efficiency. In the 70’s and 80’s the German model of social compact was extensively admired: Ralph Dahrendorf was brought in to head the LSE, for example.

This is why I was so jumpy about one commentator confusing the Telegraph with the Independent yesterday. I think maybe there were two schools of attitudes: those more on the right – like the Spectator and the Telegraph, who keep harping on about the nazi past, and those like the guardian, independent, economist, who have certainly all at one time or another been admirers of the ‘social economy’. That was why I was so shocked by the Independent yesterday. But then again there is the anglo-phobia to be found in continental Europe (although this is more likely to be found in France than in Germany). As I said, maybe one day a longer post…

Meantime the IMF’s Rodrigo Rato

Former government colleague of Jos? Maria Aznar, and now International Monetary Fund managing director, Rodrigo Rato has also been voicing opinions today.

In an interview given to the Spanish magazine Expansion, he says:

A 48-hour limit would push the eurozone in ‘the opposite direction’ from the rest of the world. ‘It is sending the wrong message…. ‘I don’t know what social model they are defending by stopping people doing more’…. ‘There is not an alternative to the US as the engine for growth’

He also reiterated his view that the European Central Bank should be ready to cut interest rates if signs of ‘greater weakness’ emerge. The ECB has ruled out such a reduction.

It seems that outside the ECB there is a growing consensus that we might see a rate cut before year’s end.

Meanwhile the bond markets continue to price in a cut

The 10-year bund yield reached 3.27 percent two days ago, the lowest ever for Germany’s benchmark. Yields, which move inversely to prices, fell amid evidence European economic growth is faltering.

Chavez On Aznar

I recently posted on Afoe about the frivolous ways in which people tend to throw around the N*Z* word these days. Latest on the list is Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called former Spanish Premier Jose Maria Aznar a “fascist,” saying Aznar once told him to forget about the poor nations of the world. Chavez recalled late Thursday that Aznar had urged him to get on “the train of the future” and distance himself from Cuba’s Fidel Castro.

Chavez, who met Thursday with Spanish Labour and Social Affairs Minister Jesus Caldera, said he once asked Aznar what he thought of the situation of poor African countries and Haiti. “He told me, ‘Forget about them, those nations missed the train of history. They are condemned to disappear.'” recalled Chavez, saying such ideas remind one of Adolf Hitler. “He is a true fascist. That is the thinking of this gentleman who continues attacking us over there,” said Chavez, who also called Aznar an “imbecile.”

Obviously I am not privy to what Aznar may or may not have said, once upon a time to Chavez. What I do know – despite the fact I have very little respect for Aznar – is that he is no fascist. Neither for that matter is Chavez. Indeed the clip Spanish TV showed of Aznar criticising Chavez publicly was a model of reasonableness.

What is far less clear is what Caldera is doing in Venezuela, and why Zapatero has occupied his time selling arms to Chavez.

Kapitalismus III

More from behind the great PPV firewall. Unfortunately only the reproduced extract is available to non-subscribers (like me):

The German economy, once the economic powerhouse of Europe, is stalling. Annual average growth in gross domestic product since 1995 has been just 1.2 per cent, unemployment has increased since 1970 to 11 per cent, the social security system could no longer be financed even if the population were not ageing, and the government’s finances are in disarray. This is a knot of problems, and it is difficult to disentangle the many threads, isolate one issue and solve it.

Unfortunately, Germany also finds itself in a political trap. Germans have become accustomed to the current high level of GDP used for social protection. In the west, this is due to earlier expansion of the welfare state; in the east, to the expectation of equal treatment created by the one-to-one exchange rate chosen for unification of the two halves of the country in 1990. Unfortunately, expectations determine voters’ behaviour, and political parties anticipate how the electorate will vote. Politicians are reluctant to tell the true story and to propose the reforms that are necessary. Witness the campaign leading up to Sunday’s regional election in North Rhine-Westphalia, where Gerhard Schr?der’s Social Democratic party, facing defeat, has stepped up its anti-capitalist rhetoric.

I think this is a clear statement of the problem from Horst Siebert. Of course we may all agree on the diagnosis, and yet beg to differ over the medication needed. Even if you can’t get through the firewall, you can browse his complete book at Amazon.

Barroso Has No ‘Plan B’ Ready

The EU Observer has the following:

The President of the European Commission has called for a French yes to the European Constitution, pointing out that there will not be a “plan B” if France rejects the treaty next week……….But Mr Barroso asserted there was no plan B in case the French rejected the treaty.
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And Chirac Agrees

President Jacques Chirac said there will be no renegotiation of the proposed EU Constitution if French voters reject the treaty in their referendum on May 29.

‘There will obviously be no renegotiation,’ Chirac said at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski in the eastern French city of Nancy.

‘There is no plan B possible,’ he added, since other EU members will refuse to open new talks on the treaty. ‘We will not renegotiate because we will have nobody to negotiate with.’
Source: Forbes