In an early comment on Sunday evening I ventured the view that at least “One thing at least seems clear: negotiations with Turkey for full membership are now very likely to start on October 3”.
Well Lo and Behold, and just as theory predicted, the EU Obsever announce this morning:
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Via Flemish newspaper Gazet van Antwerpen I happened upon this ZDF poll (pop-up, right of screen with header Blitzumfrage nach der Wahl) which would indicate that a large majority of German voters, about 70%, are unhappy with the election results.
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Despite appearances, and for all the stalemate it produced, yesterday’s German election has certainly confirmed that Germans are neither too afraid of change, nor too scared of instability. In fact, they chose both.
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Taking a break from the German elections, I ran across this recent article over at Radio Free Europe. Short version: EU accession for the Western Balkans (Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia and Albania) is stalling.
All of these five states would like to be part of the EU, but — with the partial exception of Croatia — none of them are particularly welcome. The EU appears to be going through a period of “accession fatigue” in general. The “No” votes in France and the Netherlands, though not directed specifically at these countries, have definitely created an atmosphere of doubt and uncertainty.
Furthermore, many of the countries of the Western Balkans are — there’s no way to be polite about this — unpopular. A recent Eurobarometer poll shows that more people oppose membership for Bosnia (43%) than support it. Only 40% of Europeans support EU membership for Serbia, while 44% oppose it. And for Albania, those numbers are a depressing 36% for, 50% against.
Obviously this could change over time. Again with the exception of Croatia, all of these countries are at least a decade away from membership. So opinions might shift. Still, the poll numbers suggest that there’s not much popular support within the EU for even starting the process.
Looking at the potential members one by one, below the flip.
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Crickey, this really does seem to fall under the definition of what you could call a scandal. According to the Independent’s Patrick Cockburn one billion dollars was plundered from Iraq’s defence Ministry between June 2004 and February 2005 (during the government of interim prime minister Iyad Allawi):
“It is possibly one of the largest thefts in history,” Ali Allawi, Iraq’s Finance Minister, told The Independent. “Huge amounts of money have disappeared. In return we got nothing but scraps of metal.”
Official preliminary final results for today’s election of the German Bundestag, excluding the electoral district 160 in Dresden where a by-election will be held in two weeks, have just been released.
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It’s a highly unlikely result, I’d think. And it’s one nobody had talked about before tonight. But I think I ought to mention it here, if only because its name is so cute.
In a comment to Tobias’s post below, Guerby complains that he/she/they can’t find the election results.
Well, then, look here. Updated every ten minutes. Since my last post, the Union have widened their lead over SPD to a full percentage point; but FDP are back down to single digits. All just changes round the margin, though; and the SPD seem to have done better out of the ‘overhang mandates’ than have the Union.
No dramatic changes likely between now and the official results, then.
I’ve been harshing on the Union and their little dog Toto the FDP pretty nastily throughout the campaign.1 Surely, though, I should spare a thought for Die Linke.
It’s easy to fail to pay the ‘Left Party’ the attention they deserve, mostly because nobody is likely to form a coalition with them. But still it should be noted: they did very well in this election. They should receive the congratulations they deserve.
Congratulations, then, wendebeschädigte East German communists: you polled surprisingly well, once you put yourselves under a West German carpetbagger.
And congratulations, Oskar Lafontaine. Many years ago you were the only major German political leader willing to speak the truth about the cost of unification. What a way you’ve come since then, finishing your career by becoming the first West German head of the SED.
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CDU advertising for SchröderBeing stuck in a traffic jam is probably not the best place to be to blog about the German election. On the other hand, it may well be an excellent metaphor for the result of today’s German elections, which Mrs T sketched below. Hearing the results on the radio, the first thing I that sprang to mind was Goethe – “Here now I stand, poor fool, and see I’m just as wise as formerly.” Well, maybe not quite.
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