Tag Archives: deficit

France’s Trade Deficit On The Rise

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France has just clocked up a record trade deficit for the first six months of this year: 11.193 billion euros. This now adds the French to the eurozone BoP sick room along with Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal. Of course oil imports form an important part of the picture, but that doesn’t make the headache any less.

The shortfall in June widened to 1.194 billion euros from 1.148 billion in May. The deficit for the first half of 2004 had been limited to 581 million euros.

The finance ministry said that at prices prevailing at the beginning of August France could face an energy sector deficit of more than 40 billion euros this year after 29 billion in 2004.

“The increased impact of the energy component has accounted for nearly half the deterioration in the overall trade balance for France” in the past year, the ministry said, citing rising oil prices.

Alexandre Bourgeois, an economist at Natexis Banques Populaires, said the trade deficit of the last 12 months — 20.6 billion euros — was the highest in French history.

Hungary Given Euro Warning

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Hungary risks missing its 2010 target for adopting the euro unless its government reduces the budget deficit and improves policy co-ordination with the central. This at least is the view of the OECD as expressed in its annual report on Hungary out today. According to the OECD:

“the key conclusion is that further reductions in the general government deficit have to come about through spending cuts because of the already high level of taxation. Failure to reach deficit targets have damaged credibility in the recent past and the Chapter discusses ways of providing more realistic budget targets, more transparent fiscal planning, better assessment of progress over the budget year and improved estimation of outcomes.”

I can think of two pertinent questions to put to the authors of the report: will the euro still be around by the time we get to 2010 (in its present form, I doubt it), and if it is, are they sure that it’s a good idea (looking at what has happened eg to Portugal, Greece and Italy) for Hungary to join.

Something Worries Me About Peter Bofinger

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Really I realise I have been remiss in another important sense. I have long assumed that in fact the decision to reduce deficits was taken due to the coming fiscal pressure from ageing. This certainly was the background to the discussion. However now I look at the details of the SPG this area is not mentioned (as far as I can see) and the other – the free rider and associated – is the principal consideration.

So those who criticize the bureaucratic and infexible nature of the ECB are in the right to this extent. Of course the underlying demographics *should* be part of the pact, but that is another story.

I find myself in a tricky situation, since I am deeply sceptical that the euro can work, and now after the French vote even more so, but since it has been set in motion, the best thing is obviously to try and make it work (even while doubting). So I am thinking about all this. Obviously I should try and write a longer post making this clearer.

The SGP was adopted at the Amsterdam Council 1997. A history of the implementation of the pact, and a summary of the debate over the new pact can be found here. The Stability and Growth Pact was designed as a framework to prevent inflationary processes at the national level. For this purpose it obliges national governments to follow the simple rule of a balanced budget or a slight surplus.

Now if we go back to the origins of the pact, to the communication of the European Commission on 3 September 2004, you will find the following:

“As regards the debt criterion, the revised Stability and Growth Pact could clarify the basis for assessing the “satisfactory pace” of debt reduction provided for in Article 104(2)(b) of the Treaty. In defining this “satisfactory pace”, account should be taken of the need to bring debt levels back down to prudent levels before demographic ageing has an impact on economic and social developments in Member States. Member States’ initial debt levels and their potential growth levels should also be considered. Annual assessments could be made relative to this reference pace of reduction, taking into account country-specific growth conditions.”

Now curiously I have found nothing in Bofingers argument which seems even to vaguely recognise this background.

A good starting point for this topic would be the conference “Economic and Budgetary Implications of Global Ageing held by the Commission in March 2003.

The European Council in Stockholm of March 2001
agreed that ?the Council should regularly review the
long-term sustainability of public finances, including the
expected strains caused by the demographic changes
ahead. This should be done both under the guidelines
(BEPGs) and in the context of the stability and
convergence programmes.?

This document on the history of EU thinking on ageing and sustainability is incredible.
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Portugal Given Three Years

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Portugal has been given three years (till the end of 2008) to resolve its excess deficit situation. Portugal, like Italy only with less press attention, is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown. The decision to give Portugal slightly more time may be the result of a number of factors: it may be that they are perceived to be doing more to correct the situation than the Italian government is, the accumulated deficit in Portugal (68% GDP) is much less than the Italian one (106% GDP), and again, being a little less strict with Portugal counters the ‘you only chase small countries’ argument.

“We are proposing giving the Portuguese government three years to correct its deficit,” Amelia Torres, a spokeswoman for EU monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia, told reporters on Wednesday.

As a member of the 12-nation eurozone, Portugal is bound to hold its annual public deficit to under three percent of output under terms of the 1997 Stability and Growth Pact.

The Euro Also Rises

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The euro is trading this morning at around $1.2150. The big issue seems to be the US trade deficit, which is currently outweighing all other considerations. Still what goes down can come up, and what goes up……

The dollar fell to the lowest in two weeks against the euro, the biggest move of any currency, on expectations a government report tomorrow will show the U.S. trade deficit was near a record.

The U.S. currency has retreated 2.3 percent against its European counterpart since reaching a 14-month high on July 5. A rising deficit means more dollars are leaving the country to pay for imports. The dollar also weakened against the yen after Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose to a three-month high.

“The dollar all of a sudden looks shaky; the deficit will be significant,” said Callum Henderson, head of global currency strategy in Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc. At the same time, “stock inflows are undoubtedly helping the yen. It makes sense for the dollar to weaken.”

German Deficit Continues Above 3%

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German Finance Minister Hans Eichel said today that the German deficit would be over the 3 percent limit for the fourth consecutive year this year, and would remain there at least till 2007.

The latest data, from a meeting with state finance ministers, projected this year’s deficit to reach 3.7 percent. In addition, the country is projected to maintain a deficit of 3.4 percent in 2006 and 3.1 percent in 2007, the finance ministry said. On Wednesday, the IMF said as part of its regular review that it expected Germany’s budget deficit this year to be 3.8 percent of
GDP this year.

Italy Given Two Years To Correct Deficit

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As indicated earlier in the week, the EU Commission has given Italy two years to correct its deficit.

“The European Union on Wednesday gave Italy until the end of 2007 to cut its budget deficit in line with euro-zone rules. The EU head office said Italy has been violating the budget rules underpinning the common currency by running deficits above 3 percent of its gross domestic product in 2003 and 2004 and is set to do so this year and next. But due to weakness in the euro-zone’s third-largest economy, the head office said it will give the country two years instead of just one to bring the deficit back in line.”

Italy’s Deficit Also Balloons

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Italy posted a trade deficit with the rest of the world of 1.354 billion euros in April, widening sharply from a deficit of 155 million euros in the same month of 2004, national statistics office ISTAT said on Thursday. The deficit also increased from March, when it stood at 845 million euros.

Trade with European Union countries alone showed an April deficit of 368 million euros, compared with a 109 million euro deficit in April last year.

A 5.854 billion euro cumulative trade deficit with the rest of the world in the first four months of this year was the largest Jan-April deficit since at least 1991.

Italian imports from the rest of the world rose 6.5 percent year-on-year in April, far outstripping a 1.6 percent increase in exports. Imports from the EU in April were up 1.8 percent on the year, while exports were flat compared with the year before.
Source: Reuters via NTC Research

I don’t think I am being too alarmist if I say that something nasty is happening to the international competitiveness of Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal.

Spain’s Balance of Payment Deficit

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I don’t have time to go into this much further right now, but Spain’s Current Account Deficit is ballooning enormously. According to figures realesed by the Bank of Spain today, Spain?s trade deficit increased to 6.56 billion euros in March. The deficit was up from 4.0 billion euros in the same month a year earlier. The full report from the Bank of Spain shows that:

El d?ficit acumulado de la balanza comercial se elev? en los tres primeros
meses del a?o hasta 14.736,5 millones de euros, desde 9.734,8 millones en igual per?odo del a?o anterior. En el per?odo enero-marzo, las exportaciones de mercanc?as aumentaron un 1,7%, en tasa interanual, mientras que las importaciones crecieron a un ritmo sensiblemente mayor, un 12,3%.

ie that the accumulated deficit on the commercial balance in the first 3 months rose from 9,734.8 millon euros, to 14,736.5, (an increase of 51% y-o-y). Exports increased 1.7% whilst imports increased 12.3%. Last year Spain had a trade deficit of 5% GDP, at this rate we could be heading for the 7-8% range in 2005. This *is* unsustainable, but no-one has any idea what to do about it.

China Trade With EU

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I’m not very happy with the ‘US Trade Figures‘ post I put up last Friday. I think it’s a glorious mess. The key to the problem is that I tried to deal with two – interrelated but disinct – topics at once: the euro and China trade. So today lets ignore the euro (which has once more resumed the downwards drift, even as I write) and take a bit of a closer look at where we are – in trade terms – with China. (Btw: the planet has finally returned to its orbit, and Brad Setser has an analysis of the US trade data here).

The big item in this weekend’s news is, of course, the agreement reached with Beijing on textiles. The EU textile industry will now have three years to adapt, but since textile manufacturers don’t appear to have taken too much advantage of the ten previous years, it is hard to know whether this will serve any useful purpose. Doubly so, since it is not yet clear how the calculations will be made, and I have the distinct impression that much of the recent surge in imports will now, in effect, be consolidated.

Be that as it may, what about the broader issue?
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