Das Ordervolumen in der Industrie hat sich von M?rz auf April vorl?ufigen Angaben zufolge[2] preis- und saisonbereinigt[3] um 2,9% verringert, nachdem es im Monat zuvor deutlich angestiegen war (+2,1%). Der Nachfrager?ckgang im April war vor allem auf die Abnahme der Auftragseing?nge aus dem Ausland zur?ckzuf?hren (-5,2%). Die Bestellt?tigkeit im Inland verringerte sich demgegen?ber weniger deutlich (-0,6%).

German Economy and Labour Ministry

Doesn’t this just serve me right, and illustrate Murphy’s law. The first bit of news after I decide to ditch Bloomberg is only available in German! Still, and now cribbing shamfacedly from Bloomberg, I think it is saying:

Factory orders in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, dropped in April for a third month in four……… Orders fell 2.9 percent from March, when they gained 2.1 percent.

Retail sales rose, if only marginally, in May according to NTC Research:

at 50.2, the PMI signalled only a marginal rise in sales as, overall, underlying market demand remained sluggish and retailers were forced to rely on promotional activity to improve their sales, which again impacted negatively on profits. Subdued demand was also highlighted by a further drop in purchasing activity and the sustained contraction of workforces in the sector.

So there is good and bad news packed away inside this number. Also interesting is the spread: The German reading of 53.4 was relatively good, the French one of 50.9 more or less neutral, and the Italian one of 44.4 absolutely appauling. For this, and all the other reasons I’ve been mentioning, we will need to keep a careful eye on Italy in the coming days.

On a methodological point, I’ve decided, following prodding from khr amongst others, to try and make a consciouss effort *not* to take material from Bloomberg, but to use Bloomberg as a kind of weather forecaster, so I know when its raining etc, and try to find a ‘clean’ original source – like NTC – (if such a thing exists, for eg the point Dave VH makes about the services number cited by NTC makes me want to doubt even them, and we certainly all know you can’t count on data from an Italian economics ministry – mind you they are better than the Greek ministry who consistently fail to provide up to date info even to the Commission: OK gripe over 🙂 ). Incidentally there are an interesting collection of links on Bonds info attached to Brad Setser’s post last Friday. Those interested in this abstruse theme could do a lot worse than follow the debate over there.

For once, small but good:

Growth in European service industries, which account for about one-third of the euro-region economy, unexpectedly accelerated in May to the fastest pace in seven months.

An index based on a survey of about 2,000 purchasing managers of companies including airlines and banks compiled by NTC Research Ltd. for Reuters Group Plc rose to 53.5 from 52.8 in April. The median forecast by 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decline to 52.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The UK housing market is gradually grinding to a standstill, in price terms that is. The latest report from Nationwide indicates that:

“Average property prices as measured by the mortgage lender increased marginally by 0.3 per cent between April and May. This pushed the annual inflation rate to 5.5 per cent, a level not seen since August 1996.”

And significantly. It will be worth looking at the US data this afternoon, but the trend is clear, off-shoring is, if anything, picking up speed.

Manufacturing in the dozen euro nations in May shrank the most in almost two years as unemployment near a five-year high and oil prices around $50 a barrel add to concerns about the outlook for expansion this year.

An index based on a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers compiled by NTC Research Ltd. for Reuters Group Plc fell to 48.7, the lowest since July 2003, from 49.2 in April, according to figures available on the Internet today. Economists had expected a reading of 49.2, according to the median of 30 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

This is not surprising, but it is hard to see how the German economy is going to generate GDP and employment growth in 2005. Remember global trade is slowing gradually, so it is hard to see who you can rely on exports.

Retail sales in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, fell in April as unemployment held near a post- World War II record and consumer confidence slumped.

Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, fell 3 percent from a year earlier, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected sales to be unchanged, the median of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey showed. Sales in the first four months of the year fell 1 percent. The report did not give a seasonally adjusted comparison with the previous month.

Just another item to add to the list of bad news:

European business confidence dropped to a 21-month low in May and consumers were the most pessimistic in a year as oil prices around $50 a barrel and unemployment near a five-year high dimmed the outlook for economic growth.

An index gauging confidence among 35,000 executives in the dozen euro nations fell to minus 11 from April’s minus 9, the European Commission said today in Brussels. Economists expected minus 10, the median of 29 forecasts showed. An index of consumer sentiment dropped to minus 15 from minus 13, the commission said.