Tag Archives: elections

2pm: waiting for the news

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OK, time for another new post as we wait for news from Kiev. The Central Electoral Commission is meant to be having a press conference now to declare the result but there’s still no news. As I mentioned in the thread below, the current rumours on the streets are that the official announcement (followed by Yanukovich officially becoming President) will be followed by a crackdown on the protests in Kiev. Maidan has more – but it’s understandably rather slow today.

While it may be a bit premature to be looking past the current crisis, Mosnews has an article about the future of Ukraine, noting that regardless of the result, this has made people across Europe and the world aware of Ukraine and its position.

There’s a new International Support for Ukrainian Democracy website.
The Kyiv Post now reports troops heading towards Kiev.
Victor Katolyk’s latest post says that the Communist Party are now saying they believe the elections to be illegitimate. This may mean (if the Communists and allies come to 35 or more deputies on top of the 191 Yuschenko had yesterday) that a quorum can be found for another Parliamentary meeting.
It’s now just before 5pm Ukraine time, and there’s still no word of any press conference at the Election Commission. However, rumours of a potentially violent outcome to this are still spreading, with reports of busloads of Russian troops being transported around the country, though Maidan reports that Ukrainian security forces will intervene on the side of the protestors if they’re attacked by Russian forces.

Update: Just posted on The Periscope thread (at 09.07am PST – 15.07GMT), a report that Yuschenko has agreed to another election. There’s a story confirming this on Bloomberg along with a report that Polish President Kwasniewski is flying in to Kiev to act as the EU’s intermediary in any talks. Mosnews also reports that Yuschenko has agreed, subject to having “an honest Central Election Commission.”
Meanwhile, the Russian Duma backs Yanukovich while Grigory Yavlinksy has called for countries to recognise Yuschenko as the winner.
The results haven’t been declared yet, but Interfax reports the final figures from the Central Elections Commission will be 49.53% to Yanukovich, 46.66% to Yuschenko. They have two regional results as well:

In Kyiv, Yushchenko garnered 74.69% of the votes and Yanukovych 19.93%, and in the Donetsk region, Yanukovych won 96.2% of the vote and Yushchenko 2.03%, the source said.

More reports, including pictures of Yanukovich supporters, at Lobowalk.
BBC Radio just reported that the Netherlands – as holders of the EU Presidency – are sending an envoy to Ukraine.

Ukranian update

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It was another quiet night in Ukraine with, thankfully, all the rumours of a crackdown by security forces not coming true. Neeka has a couple of posts on what happened overnight. She also points out, that amidst everything else going on, Dynamo Kiev played at home in the Champions League last night, and won 2-0. Victor Katolyk has continued to report through what’s been a quiet night.
BBC News reports that President Kuchma has offered talks to the opposition who will respond at around 10am Ukrainian time. The Kyiv Post, however, reports that Yulia Tymoshenko – who the BBC reports as saying Yuschenko will respond by 0am – has turned down the offer. I guess we have to wait and see on this one. The picture on their front page gives an idea of the size of the crowd.
Elsewhere, the Denver Post has reports from former US Congressman Bob Schaffer who “went to Ukraine to monitor an election but found himself watching a revolution.”
Brama and Maidan have continued to update overnight.
Following up on something Victor has mentioned, the Guardian reports that four newsreaders have walked out of Channel 1+1 in protest about censorship which is why that station hasn’t been showing any news – there’s no one there to report it! They also report (via the IFJ) that journalists at Inter and UT1 have walked out.
The BBC has a link to the Yanukovych campaign website but it appears to be down at the present time.
Tulip Girl lists the turnout at protests throught Ukraine.

Update: Europhobia starts a new post to cover today’s developments. Victor is now joined by friends to cover the latest events over at The Periscope. The official election result is expected to be announced at around 1400GMT (4pm Ukrainian time) – that looks like the key time to wait for today. There seem to be protests spiringing up all over the country right now.
There’s a new blog for the Voldmyr Campaign, it’s London-based and compiling information about what’s going on in Ukraine right now.
Javier Solana addressed the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee this morning and has warned of the possibility of violence. Following on from NATO last night, the Parliament has cummoned the Ukrainian Ambassador “to defend the conduct of the disputed presidential election in his homeland.”
The PORA campaign has an English-language website.

Update 2: The morning has continued with no major developments, though the crowds remaining in Kiev are still huge. The main currency appears to be rumours as people wait for the official announcement of the result at 4pm Ukraine time (2pm GMT, 3PM CET, 9am EST)
It’s not in English, but there appears to be a lot of information flowing through this Livejournal community. (By the way, Fistful is available as an LJ feed here)
BBC News reports that the European Commission has requested that the declaration of the result be declared delayed – (typo, not the Commission changing its mind). From what I understand, should Yanukovich be declared the winner then, he becomes President straightaway. Reports at The Periscope indicate that that’s when the crackdown by security forces will begin.
Another Kiev-based blog – Foreign Notes.
Reuters report the statement from the European Commission, including what sounds like quite a strong statement from Barroso:

“We have asked for the procedures and the results to be reviewed … and we are urging our Ukrainian partners to resist announcing final results before that review has taken place.” Emma Udwin, a spokeswoman for the EU’s executive Commission, told a daily news briefing.

New Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso called for restraint in Ukraine and said there would be consequences for EU relations with Kiev “if there is not a serious, objective review of the election results”.

Le Sabot Post-Moderne is working for Maidan, and has a report on the latest developments. Maidan itself reports that government buildings in Kiev are being evacuated.

Update (by Tobias): Crisis Fallout: Le Figaro reports mounting EU-Russian tensions just one day before a scheduled summit in The Hague. While Ukraine was not originally on the summit’s agenda, the ongoing events are likely to change that.

According to the newspaper, the Russian government now accuses the EU that by asking for a recount (which it did not do as such as such, the Dutch presidency simply expressed “doubts” aobut the election) it was “encouraging the Ukrainian opposition to take violent and illegal steps”. EUPolitix.com cites President Putin, who allegedly said ?Ukraine is a great state with a mature democratic system. There is no need to teach it democracy” (much more reading in their )

More from Ukraine

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I’m starting a new post for the latest information as the old one was starting to get a bit long. The session in Parliament has broken up as there were 191 deputies there, but 226 (50%+1) were required for a quorum, so no action could be taken. However, the Kyiv Post reports that Yushchenko has taken a ‘symbolic’ oath of office as President:

After the session ended, Yushchenko swore an oath on a 300-year-old Bible. The Ukrainian constitution, however, stipulates that the president swears allegiance on a copy of the constitution. Lawmakers chanted “Bravo, Mr. President!”

There’s other interesting information in the story as well, such as how a no confidence vote would also be symbolic rather than binding:

“All political forces should negotiate and solve the situation without blood,” said parliament speaker Volodymyr Litvyn.

“The activities of politicians and the government … have divided society and brought people into to the streets,” Litvyn said. “Today there is a danger of activities moving beyond control.”

A no-confidence vote in parliament would have carried political significance, but it would not have been binding. According to the Ukrainian constitution, a no-confidence vote must be initiated by the president – and outgoing President Leonid Kuchma has staunchly backed Yanukovych.

Opposition leader and Yushchenko ally Yulia Tymoshenko, wearing an orange ribbon around her neck, called on lawmakers “not to go to into any negotiations” with the government. Instead, Tymoshenko said, they should “announce a new government, a new president, a new Ukraine.”

However, there are welcome signs that direct confrontations are being avoided:

Mykola Tomenko, a lawmaker and Yushchenko ally, said some police had joined the opposition, although the claim was impossible to independently verify. One police officer, wearing an orange ribbon in his uniform, ordered a group of police outside a government building to retreat inside, defusing tension between them and Yushchenko supporters.

Kyiv’s city council and the administrations of four other sizable cities – Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk – have refused to recognize the official results and they back Yushchenko.

Elsewhere, idiotprogrammer discusses (the lack of) American coverage of what’s going on (though we have now been mentioned on Instapundit).

Update: BBC News 24 reports (from the AFP wire) that Yushchenko has called on the police and army to come out and support him while miners are threatening to march on Kiev in support of Yanukovich. AFP also reports that Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende – the Netherlands currently holds the EU presidency – has informed Ukrainian President Kuchma that the EU has doubts about the result of the election.

Update 2: The Periscope has lots of information, including translations of what’s being broadcast on Ukrainian radio right now. They also report that Javier Solana will be addressing the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs tomorrow focusing on events in Ukraine.
Latest breaking news from the Kyiv Post reports Putin saying that “criticism of the Ukrainian election by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is “inadmissible” because there are no official results.”
More blogging from Kiev at Le Sabot Post-Moderne.
Interesting BBC News article on some of the background to the protests. It mentions a Ukrainian student group – Pora – who have connections with Georgia’s Kmara and Serbia’s Otpor movements, both of whom were at the forefront of the protests in their countries that overthrew governments. As several people have noted, Georgian flags are being displayed quite prominently amidst the protests.
There’s a good Financial Times article on the processes going on behind the scenes:

Although Mr Kuchma has spent a decade building an authoritarian regime, he has not established complete control – unlike President Vladimir Putin in neighbouring Russia – and it is unclear whether he can assure victory for his prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich.

In particular, he does not control parliament or the Supreme Court, both of which could play a vital role in determining the victor.

The core of Mr Kuchma’s power is his dominance of the bureaucracy, law-enforcement and state security structures inherited from Communist times. Even before Mr Putin made similar moves in Russia, Mr Kuchma established presidential control over regional governments and placed close allies to oversee the news on the main state and private television channels. […]

Critically, the president has failed to establish a reliable majority among parliament’s 450 members. Recently, Volodymyr Lytvyn, the speaker, and more than 30 deputies deserted the pro-presidential bloc, creating a stalemate in which neither Mr Yushchenko nor Mr Kuchma have a majority.

Mr Kuchma cannot take the support of domestic institutions for granted, especially the Supreme Court, where judges enjoy independence thanks to lifetime appointments. Before the polls, the court acted in Mr Yushchenko’s favour by ordering the Central Election Commission to exclude 41 extra polling stations in Russia for the numerous Ukrainian citizens there amid concerns that they might be used for ballot fraud. After the first round, the court ordered the Central Election Commission to reverse a decision to exclude votes from a pro-Yushchenko district.

As the widespread allegations of second-round fraud have shown, the government has attempted another challenge to institutions Mr Kuchma does not fully control.

The authorities successfully ordered and bullied civil servants to co-operate in ballot-stuffing operations – ranging from university professors who applied unfair pressure on students to police officers who were paid to tour polling stations and vote more than once. But the machine did its job too well. The sheer scale of fraud required to swing the official results in Mr Yanukovich’s favour has provoked huge protests and international criticism.

Update 3: Victor Katolyk’s live reports from Ukraine are in this Periscope thread. BBC News 24 just had live pictures from outside the Presidential offices where police are present in full riot gear and standing about 10-15 deep, completely blocking access to what appeared to be a large crowd of protestors. However, despite all that, things still seemed peaceful – the crowd was quite orderly and there was a gap between them and the police, with no signs of imminent trouble. At times like this, though, it only takes one hothead to spark a flame.
There’s a brief post on Siberian Light that makes an interesting couple of points:

* Putin seems to have made a major error of judgement in backing Mr Yanukovych. If the election result is overturned, he will have made an enemy of Yushchenko.
* And if Yushchenko does win the Presidency he won’t have such a strong mandate from the people as Saakashvilli did in Georgia’s Rose Revolution (which, by the way, is celebrating its 1st anniversary today). Even if the election had been free and fair, I doubt Yushchenko would have won by more than a few points. There are deep East-West divisions in Ukraine which have bubbled to the surface this week. They won’t just go away.

BBC News reports that Yushchenko has asked former Polish President Walesa to mediate in the crisis. Walesa is reported as saying he will if Ukrainian President Kuchma asks him to.
Update 4: Right, one last set of updates then I need to get some sleep. Things seem to have quietened down now – it’s 2am in Ukraine right now (for reference, it’s GMT+2, CET+1, EST+7). Victor has continued to updates at The Periscope– the general trend seems to be reports of public and international support for Yuschenko, coupled with rumours of potential trouble from forces allied with Yanukovich tomorrow. There’s nothing we can do but sit and wait to see how those pan out.
Yuschenko’s website in English (click on ‘ENG’ at the top of the screen) has lots of news, including a story that Mikhail Gorbachev has backed Yushchenko.
Interesting posts from Daniel Brett and Coming Anarchy.
There are many reports of international demonstrations and protests for Yushchenko tomorrow – I’ll add those to the thread above.
Two more sites gathering and reporting news from Ukraine in English – Maidan and Brama.

The Orange Revolution?

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Just a quick update on events in Ukraine today. Mass protests are still taking place in Kiev and Lviv, and the rumoured crackdown by security forces on protestors during the night didn’t take place. Yushchenko has asked the protestors in Kiev to march to Ukraine’s Parliament which is debating the elections. I can’t read it, but the Parliament’s website is here. Wikipedia’s page on the election is being updated frequently, and also has a map showing the quite stark east/west divide between Yushchenko and Yanukovich.

If you know of any more information please add it into the comments, or mail us, and we’ll update this post as the day goes on.

Update (by Tobias, 14:10 CET):It seems that, seeing the wave of protests in Kiev, the international coverage and criticism of the election Ukrainian presidential results is getting more vociferous – and a little hopeful.

According to the BBC’s Helen Fawkes, the opposition’s main objective now is to have the Ukrainian “parliament to pass a vote of no-confidence in the central electoral commission and to refuse to recognise the result of the ballot.”

In marked – albeit widely expected – difference to the Russian election observers – who declared the voting “transparent, legitimate and free,” according to CNN/Interfax – both OSCE and US observers are united in their assessment of a rigged election – including not too unreasonable claims by Mr Yushchenko, about having been poisened.

Senator Richard Lugar, the US’ official observer, summarized the feelings of the people on Kiev’s streets: It was “concerted and forceful” fraud.

According to CNN, all EU countries have now summoned the Ukranian ambassadors. AP reports that German Foreign Minister Fischer has demanded a recount and expressed his hopes for a peaceful resolution of the current situation.

And as Nick indicated above, so far, no violent suppression of the protests has occured, despite reports about “the road leading to parliament turned into a river of orange – the campaign colour of Mr Yushchenko” (BBC) and claims by security forces to crack down on any “lawlessness”.

Even though this live feed (via the TulipGirl) showing Kiev’s main square doesn’t show 100,000 people at the moment, Ukrainian Journalist/Blogger Veronica Khoklova is right to claim in her blog that

Something IS going on there, definitely.

Update 2: (By Doug Merrill) Germany’s leaders, both government and opposition, are calling for a recount in Ukraine’s election. Foreign minister Fischer has called in the Ukrainian ambassador to express his views directly.

Various media (Spiegel Online, Polish television, though not yet BBC or CNN) are reporting that Yuschenko’s supporters are forming up to march on Parliament. Poland’s largest newspaper has splashed the Yushchenko rally across its entire front page, and the online article begins roughly, “The night was peaceful – what will the day bring?”

One of the most widely circulated pictures of Yushchenko shows him holding up a rose — the symbol of the Georgian revolution. Reports are of up to 200,000 people in the main square to support Yushchenko.

Some significant things have not happened. A feared crackdown and clearing of the square at 3am last night did not take place. There are not reports of mass public support for Yanukovych in his strongholds. The rally in Kiev has not turned violent. Police and armed forced appear to be staying neutral. While these are only signs, they are good signs.

Update 3: (Nick) A few links: Photos from Blog de Cannard, links on einsordenull, the Kyiv Post is a Ukrainian newspaper in English, Europhobia keeps finding more links and Neeka has some news on what’s happening in the Parliament as they discuss it. Reports (such as this one from the BBC as well as Neeka) suggest that Yushcehnko’s supporters have turned up to to Parliament but Yanukovich’s supporters and the Communists are staying away, meaning that there are insufficient members there to pass a motion of no confidence in the election commission.

A Crucial Night in Kiev

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The Ukrainian election is turning into a huge story, as careful observers had suspected. At stake is whether Ukraine — as big as France, with a population of 48m — will make a decisive political turn toward Euro-Atlantic structures, or whether it will go down the CIS road of defective democracies and subordination to Russia.

(Not blogging it earlier was a blunder, but I’ve had my eye on it, working with a project to present analyses at a Berlin conference on December 6; the papers are obviously on hold, awaiting events.)

That Yanukovych is attempting to steal the election is clear. Two regions in eastern Ukraine are reporting voter turnouts of 98 percent. These Stalinesque numbers are simply not credible, and reports indicate that the difference in just these two regions would be enough to turn the election. Every independent observation group has said there were significant flaws in the election. I think they’re waiting a little to see which way the wind is blowing before coming out with stronger statements.

The central election commission has called the election for Yanukovych, the prime minister and Russian president Putin’s clear favorite.

At present, 100,000 people are in Kiev’s main square at a rally for Yushchenko, the opposition leader who stands for a clear European vocation for the country. The atmosphere is peaceful, happy, electric. One of our authors reports consistent rumors that Yushchenko is negotiating with the security forces to help him or remain neutral.

(BBC and CNN have finally made this the lead story on their Europe pages.)

The city councils in Kiev, Lviv and three other cities in western Ukraine have refused to recognize Yanukovych as president. Putin sent his congratulations to Yanukovych before the official results were announce.

A special session of Parliament has been called, and a prominent ally of Yushchenko has called for a general strike.

In the footage I’ve seen from the main square in Kiev, the new Georgian flags were prominently being waved, suggesting that a pre-revolutionary situation may be well underway.

More as this develops.

The Morning After in Europe

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So it’s done. We have four more years of George W Bush to look forward to. A quick tour of the American blogs shows a few trying to pull some sort of moral victory from this election, but the truth is that they’ve lost everything. Not only has the president finally won the majority denied to him in 2000, but as a reward for his mismanagement and incompetence, Democrats have actually lost seats in both houses of Congress, including losing the Senate Minority Leader. For all that the vote is close, the outcome is a stunning defeat in terms of real access to power. There is no longer a meaningful opposition in the US able to moderate the power of a president who needs no longer worry about reelection.

At best, this means that in 2008 the Republicans will have to run on a deeper quagmire in Iraq, no meaningful victories in the so-called war on terrorism, another huge hike in the American public debt and all the new messes Bush can create. But, let’s be honest. That isn’t going to happen. No one will be called to account. The American electorate, for a number of reasons, simply will not hold this administration to account. They did not do so in 2002, they haven’t this time, and there is no reason to think they will in 2008.

Reaction in the French political scene is muted, but definitely not happy.
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Bowling for Cubberley (Free Music Inside!)

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Usually, it’s impossible to argue with people who make comparisons between the incumbent US administration and various past totalitarian systems, particularly when the argument turns to a comparison between George W Bush and the Austrian guy with the Charlie Chaplin moustache. Whatever you think of George W Bush and his administration – still a mystery to many people in the US as well as abroad – he’s no Hitler, and the US are still a largely liberal democracy – albeit a deeply divided and angst-ridden one with a progressively eroding system of common values.


A regular guy from Texas.Though I hope to the contrary, I believe the weeks following the US Presidential election will become a much bigger electoral and legal debacle than most commentators are willing to admit now. In the end, this election might well become a testament of the principal current American weakness – deep social and partisan divisions, if not outright hatred between the camps. American politics now appears to consist predominantly of conceptually empty labels – very soon even rituals of Patriotism may be exposed as nothing more than a band aid for a mentally and spiritually ailing nation.
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The Lafontaine Factor.

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In a state election (Landtagswahl) in the Saarland that was widely considered another benchmark for the approval of the German federal government’s reform efforts, particularly of the labour market deregulation programme known as “Hartz IV” – these elections are, often to a significant extent, second order national contests – the Social Democrats have been dealt the predicted crushing defeat, gaining likely just under 30% of the vote, losing about 15% compared to their 1999 result, according to early, but usually very reliable exit poll data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, broadcast by ZDF television (German labelled graphics here).

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Regional Elections in France: The UMP takes a hit

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Yesterday was regional elections day in France. France has not traditionally had any strong local government structure – one of the first acts of the revolution was the abolition of the old provinces and their replacement with purely administrative “departments.” However, the last 20 years have seen radical changes in the way French government is structured and the EU in particular has been a big force in decentralising the French state. The creation of the regions in 1982 was motivated by a desire to create institutions able to participate in partnering programmes with German Länder, particularly programmes subsidised by the EU. However, they have since taken on a life of their own. France is a quite diverse country on the ground and it has a number of long-standing problems related to regional differences.

So, although the regions are still not very powerful in comparison to the central state, they have been growing in power, particularly in areas that are culturally or economically outside of the core of the French state – Corsica, Alsace, Brittany and the overseas territories in particular. A number of significant powers over regional economic development and education are shared with the regions.
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Metis, Bie and Kerdos: Some Thoughts On Defeating Terrorism

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Maybe it’s the presence of Talos in the comments section, or maybe it’s the arrival of the Athens Olympics on my personal horizon, but something this morning is carrying me back to the world of the Greeks, and to some early ideas of how best to secure objectives in the face of adversity.

First metis and bie:

What Does Metis Mean?

The history of the word goes back more than 28 centuries to the time of Homer around, 850BC. To the ancient Greeks, metis represented a particular type of cunning intelligence used if success was to be won in the most diverse fields of action. In the Iliad and the Odyssey, Odysseus is the hero most commonly associated with metis. The most famous strategem (metis) is the Trojan Horse, by which the Greeks finally managed to conquer Troy. This is a good example of metis for it represents a solution to a problem not resolvable by conventional means.

Metis is often contrasted with the word, bie, which means brute force. All through the Iliad, the big question is, will Troy fall by metis or bie – by wiliness or brute strength? The answer is by metis.

In the intellectual world of the Greek philosopher, there was a radical dichotomy between being and becoming, between the intelligible and the sensible. On the one hand there is the sphere of being, of the one, the unchanging, of the limited, of true and definite knowledge; on the other hand, the sphere of becoming, of the multiple, the unstable and the unlimited, of oblique and changeable opinion. Metis is characterised by the way it operates by continuously oscillating between the two opposite poles. Within a changing reality with limitless possibilities, a person with metis can achieve.

So metis is a type if intelligence and of thought, a way of knowing; it implies a complex but coherent body of mental attitudes and intellectual behaviour which combine flair, forethought, resourcefulness, vigilance, pragmatism, opportunism and the wisdom of experience.

When art and science unite, extra possibilities and opportunities are made resulting in innovation that can be driven by creativity. Metis is about finding elegant solutions to difficult problems instead of relying on brute force.

Now are you with me? What is lacking in our war with terrorism today, and all too often woefully lacking, is the component of metis. It is as if 2,000 years or more of history did not lie behind us, as if we had to learn every day anew the painful lessons of yesterday. Why am I saying this now? Well look what happened in Spain yesterday, what is happening today, and what will happen in the elections tomorrow.
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