Tag Archives: EU

Latvia Votes Yes

Posted on by

The Latvian parliament approved the Constitution Treaty earlier this morning, by a huge majority:

“Latvia’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to support the EU constitution on Thursday, a decision lawmakers and analysts said sent a message from the new Europe to the old that the approval process must continue.

After several European leaders urged other member states to press ahead with the endorsement process after convincing rejections in the French and Dutch referendums, Latvia’s 100 member parliament voted 71 for the constitution with 5 votes against and 6 abstaining“.

The next hurdle will be the Luxembourg referendum, on the 10th July. This will take place as scheduled if the EU summit of 15/16 June doesn’t decide to change tack.

Meanwhile French media are announcing that there is a plan B, it’s called Blair. Tony Blair, they are suggesting, will seize the opportunity presented by disarray in the federal Europe camp to push ahead with ‘liberal’ economic reforms, leaving the institutional infrastructure to languish. Possibly the outcome the French fear most. Something like this may in fact be what happens.

Twenty Twenty Vision

Posted on by

The press this morning are busily assimilating the result of yesterday’s Netherlands referendum. The FT reports on a survey by Dutch polling organisation Interview-NSS, which identified up to twenty different issues which influenced the no vote.

Top of the list the list was a fear that the Netherlands would lose influence in a Europe that would favour large countries.
Continue reading →

And It’s Another No

Posted on by

The first exit polls have just been announced in the Netherlands. The first estimate is 63% No, 37% Yes. (I may have to update this, as I have no numbers on abstention).

Let the debate continue!

Update: The euro just broke under the $1.22 level, it is currently at $1.2179 in US trading. Tomorrow is going to be a long hard day somewhere. (22.14 CET).

Dutch referendum: some background

Posted on by

Having been asked by AFOE to write a couple of posts for them in the coming weeks I am both honoured and horrified and apologize in advance for occasionally butchering the English language. A very short introduction: I am a Dutch translator now living in France after 30 odd years of residence in Belgium. I am totally incapable of producing fine scholarly essays but I can do my part of the vox populi pretty well? I hope.

To warm up I offer you some background relevant to the Dutch referendum before the official results start rolling in. First some figures, taken from a Eurostat news report (pdf) that was released today.

Dutch unemployment, while remaining well below the European average of 8,9%, has risen from 4.6% to 5%. By comparison, Poland has 17% unemployment and Ireland 4.2%. Eurostat also mentions that The Netherlands registered the highest relative increase in unemployment rates among the member states together with Portugal (6.5% to 7.2%) and Luxemburg (4.2% to 4.6%). Unemployment among young people in The Netherlands, while fairly high at 9.2%, is still modest compared to the EU average rate of 19%.
Continue reading →

The Calm Before The Storm

Posted on by

Following the turbulent river of news which has flowed unrelentingly through the principal European media outlets since Sunday night, today we seem to be swimming in a relative ocean of calm. This is very deceptive. Today the Netherlands is voting and tomorrow the ECB will have a closely watched meeting which may potentially have significant consequences for the EU economy.

If at this stage there seems little doubt about the outcome of the Dutch vote (more worthy of interest will be the level of participation and the size of the ‘no’ majority), we are also unlikely to see anything earth shattering happening over at the ECB. It is unlikely that there will be any change in the Central Bank’s two per cent interest rate policy (or twirp, as some wit at Morgan Stanley has christened it, after the rather better known zero rate (or zirp) policy at the Bank of Japan). All the watching eyes inevitably be focussed on the press conference, and on Trichet’s handling of the inevitable questions (worth a look at the 2:30pm webcast).

So if today we are enjoying a ‘day of reflection’, tomorrow we will undoubtedly see battle rejoined. In particular, it will be ‘D’ – or decision – day for Barroso and the EU Commission.
Continue reading →

Divided Opinions in the Czech Republic

Posted on by

the Czech president has become the first prominent EU politician to call for the ratification process to stop after the French vote.

According to the Czech news agency CTK, Vaclav Klaus, a well-known eurosceptic, said that to carry on the ratification process would be useless, although the Czech prime minister has said he is in favour of continuing.

“The decision has been made and I hope everybody understands it”, Mr Klaus is reported as saying.

In fact, were the ratification process to continue, the Czech Republic has still not decided the actual method of the ratification and the government has admitted it will consider limiting the procedure to a parliamentary vote after all, since the constitutionional change necessary for holding a referendum has proved difficult to agree on among the different parliamentary parties.

If The Netherlands Vote No………

Posted on by

If the Netherlands vote ‘no’ tomorrow (and the opinion polls don’t seem to leave much room for doubt), then according to the FT Jack Straw will tell the House of Commons next Monday that the UK government is immediately suspending parliamentary passage of the European treaty bill. This means the ratification process will be dead, not just in theory (which I think it is now) but in practice. This announcement leaves me with a strange feeling. These days I don’t feel especially British, I am not a great admirer of Tony Blair and Jack Straw, but somehow they seem to have drawn the obvious conclusions, conclusions which clearly are not obvious to many other EU politicians. I can’t help thinking that if we could get to the bottom of why this is, we would understand a bit better why there is such a communication problem between the UK and other parts of the EU.

Britain is to suspend plans to put the European Union constitution to the vote if the Netherlands follows France and rejects the treaty in a referendum on Wednesday.

As the shockwaves of the French vote were resounding on Monday, it emerged that Tony Blair and Jack Straw, foreign secretary, have decided immediately to freeze plans for a UK referendum if, as expected, the Dutch vote No.

The government hopes other EU states would at once declare that rejection in France and the Netherlands meant ratification in all countries must be suspended. Even without consensus the prime minister and foreign secretary believe it would be politically impossible for the UK to carry on with its own ratification.

Incidentally, Jaques Chirac is to make a formal statement about the future French government and his interpretation of the vote on French TV tonight.

Mandelson Calls For Reflection

Posted on by

Wow, I seem to be agreeing with Mandelson. Hardly surprising, apart from all the sleeze rows, I have the feeling he is the most competent politician working out of Brussels:

Striking a different tone from European Commission President Jos? Manuel Barroso, Mandelson appears to be suggesting a ?plan B?.

He argues that should the French ?non? be an obstacle to the EU constitution Europe should seek a ?new consensus?.

EU leaders could set out a vision of Europe?s policy direction and then draw up a fresh institutional blueprint.

?I think that consensus on the centre ground is there to be mobilised. One that rejects the populism of left and right,? he said.

Mandelson noted that future ratifications ? including a British vote ? would depend on whether the EU constitution was still viable.

?There will be a period of reflection,? he said early on Monday morning.

?If there is a constitutional treaty to ratify, I am confident it will be put to British people in a referendum.?