Actually the FT isn’t giving any apparent credence to the Times story, focusing on the embarrasing position the UK government might find itself in if there is a ‘no’. “Senior government officials are warning that if the French public votes No in its referendum on the European Union constitution, it could undermine Britain’s presidency of the EU in the second half of the year.”
Tag Archives: EU
Le Petit ‘Non’
Well, if you believe Times (and after last weeks episode with the Independent I believe no-one), le petit ‘non’, like its equivalent le petit mensonge, is not all that serious after all. According to the Times, Britain is working with other European states to draw up plans to keep the European Union constitution alive if there is a narrow ?non? vote in France next week. Just a soupcon of ‘no’ will, in the end ‘help the medicine go down’.
French Economic Slowdown Puts More Pressure on May 29
French economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter and this is bound to have a negative impact on yesterdays ‘big push’ to win support for the ‘yes’ in the European constitution referendum. Gross domestic product in what is Europe’s third-largest economy grew January -March by only 0.2%. This compares with the October-December period, when it expanded by a revised 0.7%.
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German President Criticises UK ‘Stereotypes’
After the sorry incident of the Independent ‘racism scare’ yesterday, I really have to say I can sympathise with Germans who are getting tired of being treated as if they were all ‘Hitlers Children’.
“Germany’s federal president Horst K?hler called on the British people on Thursday to drop their “stereotypical” and “negative” views of Germany, in comments that look likely to revive debate on problems in British/German relations”….”Germans have a bigger affinity to Britain than the other way round,” he said. In unusually outspoken comments, he added: “I fear that German stereotypes in Britain are largely negative. Britain should take a more open view of Germany.” He criticised British schools for focusing only on the Nazi period when they taught German history..
Sometime I would write a longer post on all this. I am not sure that all German stereotypes in the UK are as negative as K?hler fears. Unless things have changed a lot recently there was always a tremendous regard for German craftsmanship, and efficiency. In the 70’s and 80’s the German model of social compact was extensively admired: Ralph Dahrendorf was brought in to head the LSE, for example.
This is why I was so jumpy about one commentator confusing the Telegraph with the Independent yesterday. I think maybe there were two schools of attitudes: those more on the right – like the Spectator and the Telegraph, who keep harping on about the nazi past, and those like the guardian, independent, economist, who have certainly all at one time or another been admirers of the ‘social economy’. That was why I was so shocked by the Independent yesterday. But then again there is the anglo-phobia to be found in continental Europe (although this is more likely to be found in France than in Germany). As I said, maybe one day a longer post…
Meantime the IMF’s Rodrigo Rato
Former government colleague of Jos? Maria Aznar, and now International Monetary Fund managing director, Rodrigo Rato has also been voicing opinions today.
In an interview given to the Spanish magazine Expansion, he says:
A 48-hour limit would push the eurozone in ‘the opposite direction’ from the rest of the world. ‘It is sending the wrong message…. ‘I don’t know what social model they are defending by stopping people doing more’…. ‘There is not an alternative to the US as the engine for growth’
He also reiterated his view that the European Central Bank should be ready to cut interest rates if signs of ‘greater weakness’ emerge. The ECB has ruled out such a reduction.
It seems that outside the ECB there is a growing consensus that we might see a rate cut before year’s end.
Meanwhile the bond markets continue to price in a cut
The 10-year bund yield reached 3.27 percent two days ago, the lowest ever for Germany’s benchmark. Yields, which move inversely to prices, fell amid evidence European economic growth is faltering.
Barroso Has No ‘Plan B’ Ready
The EU Observer has the following:
The President of the European Commission has called for a French yes to the European Constitution, pointing out that there will not be a “plan B” if France rejects the treaty next week……….But Mr Barroso asserted there was no plan B in case the French rejected the treaty.
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And Chirac Agrees
President Jacques Chirac said there will be no renegotiation of the proposed EU Constitution if French voters reject the treaty in their referendum on May 29.
‘There will obviously be no renegotiation,’ Chirac said at a joint press conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski in the eastern French city of Nancy.
‘There is no plan B possible,’ he added, since other EU members will refuse to open new talks on the treaty. ‘We will not renegotiate because we will have nobody to negotiate with.’
Source: Forbes
Dutch Referendum: Euro-scepticism
Dutch Finance Minister Gerrit Zalm is in the news again. Last time I read about him it was because he had started a weblog. This time the issue is different: he describes himself as being “totally fed up” with the fact the Dutch public thinks that it was effectively robbed by the way the euro was introduced.
Behind this ‘frustration’ lies a startk reality: the controversy over the valuation of the the guilder at the time of monetary union is one of the key factors fuelling the ‘no’camp in the forthcoming referendum.
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EU Fast-Tracks China Textile Dispute
The European Union yesterday issued a final warning to China over its booming textile exports, threatening sanctions against two categories of textiles to prevent ?irreparable harm? to European producers. EU Commissioner Peter Mandelson has proposed emergency talks with China on imports of T-shirts and flax yarn. T-shirts and flax yarn are two of the nine categories of textile imports from China currently under investigation by Brussels following allegations of a surge in exports. Under the emergency talks procedure the normal 60 day WTO procedure is by-passed:
Normally investigations can take up to 60 days, but the procedure allows for this period to be cut short and urgent consultations within the WTO triggered for any product where import surges and the risk of immediate damage to the EU industry are very high. “In view of the seriousness of market disruption in these categories, formal consultations need to begin immediately,” the European Commission said in a statement on Tuesday.
“Only if China does not take effective action will the Commission propose temporary limits or safeguard measures on the growth of Chinese exports in the categories concerned in 2005.”
Under WTO rules, the consultation procedure requires China to remedy the situation by slowing the growth of its exports in these area to the level of the first 12 of the previous 14 months, plus 7.5 per cent.
Does this decision mean people are really getting nervous about the upcoming French constitution referendum? I have a longer post on this topic here.
French Referendum: No Vote On The Rebound
The ‘No’ campaign seems once more to have regained the lead in the run-up to France’s referendum on May 29, with French voters apparently ignoring all warnings about the damage that would be caused by rejection of Europe’s constitutional treaty.
One explanation for this may be the fact that leading politicians of the left – like Jacques Delors and Laurent Fabius – have given the impression that a ‘no’ outcome would lead to a probable ‘renegotiation’ of the treaty, with an outcome more favourable to French interests. The latest opinion polls show that an increasing proportion of respondents say France could renegotiate a better treaty after a No vote. According to the Ipsos poll cited below, nearly 62 per cent of respondents now hold this opinion.
Confounding pollsters, pundits and politicians alike, public opinion in France has swung back behind a no vote to the new European constitution, say three surveys published yesterday.
Less than two weeks before France’s May 29 referendum on the treaty, the polls by the TNS-Sofres, Ipsos and CSA agencies for Le Monde, Le Figaro and Le Parisien newspapers showed support for the no camp, trailing since the end of April, had bounced back to between 51% and 53%.
TheGuardian