Tag Archives: Europe and the world

The Low-Fertility Trap

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I suppose by-now every right thinking and reasonably well read adult knows what the ‘poverty-trap’ is, even if most of us aren’t too clear about what there is to do about it. Being stuck in one of these traps could be thought to be like being stuck in a (not necessarily very deep) well with a slimy surround wall. The more you struggle to get out, the harder it gets: your strength disippates, and the walls get to be even more slippery. This could also be called a negative feedback loop.

Well now there is the suggestion that something similar may exist in the world of fertility. As Wolfgang Lutz suggests in this power point presentation, the critical level may be 1.5. No society which has fallen below this level has -to date – returned above it. (Many thanks here to commenter CapTvK who sent me the link).
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Garzon Gets His Man

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One day it might be worth writing a post on the life and times of Judge Balthasar Garzon. Today we might just note that he finally has ‘his man’: the US have just agreed to hand-over Lahcen Ikassrien to Spanish authorities. Ikassrien is being held in Guantanamo, but it is important to note that Garzon wants to interview him, not so much about the Madrid bombings, as about the Spanish end of the 11 September operation.

The Human Costs Of War

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Controversy continues to surround the problem of assessing non-combatant casualties in time of war. The Swiss based Graduate Institute of International Studies has just published its latest annual small arms survey where it suggests some 39,000 Iraqis have been killed as a direct result of combat or armed violence since the start of the war.

The most relevant part of the report is probably chapter nine “Behind the Numbers: Small Arms and Conflict Deaths” – where, in addition to Iraq, other recent warzones like Guatemala, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Sudan are also assessed. (A chapter summary is available here).
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Two peoples divided by a common language

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Clay Risen has a perceptive article in Slate today, warning non-German observers that Angela Merkel (Gerd Schr?der’s likely successor) is no Margaret Thatcher. But embedded in that article is this astounding sentence:

[T]he CDU … is actually an alliance between the more free-market-oriented Christian Democrats, from which Merkel hails, and the more economically liberal Bavarian Christian Social Union. [Emph. added.]

Would these two terms be viewed as opposites anyplace else than America? In any other country, would the term ‘economically liberal’, as applied to the CSU, make any sense at all? (For the thing about the CSU is that it is more culturally conservative and less economically liberal than its sister party.)

Which does not detract, of course, from what Risen hints at: ‘economic liberalism’ is a relative concept. If the Union, even under Merkel, proves more liberal than the SPD, it will be a difference of degree not kind; and I suspect of quite modest degree at that.

The ‘Eastern’ Alliance

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An alliance of Russia, China and central Asian nations called today for the U.S. and coalition members in Afghanistan to set a date for withdrawing from member states.

he Shanghai Cooperation Organization, at a summit in the Kazakh capital, said in a declaration that a withdrawal date should be set in light of what it said was a decline of active fighting in Afghanistan.

“We support and will support the international coalition which is carrying out an anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan, and we have taken note of the progress made in the effort to stabilize the situation,” the declaration said.

“As the active military phase in the anti-terror operation in Afghanistan is nearing completion, the SCO would like the coalition’s members to decide on the deadline for the use of the temporary infrastructure and for their military contingents’ presence in those countries,” the declaration continues.

Now what was it Brad Setser was saying about why the Unocal bid was important?

The EU’s Latest Export

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Mala leche (nothing to do with the CAP) we would probably call it here in Spain, bad blood (again not connected with mad cows) might be the English expression. We’re all off to Singapore apparently, and the fair ground side-show seems to be up and running. On this one I’m impartial, I’m being very pc and rooting for Madrid. Results known tomorrow.

“I think the Paris stadium is a wonderful stadium. I really like going there to watch rugby but unfortunately rugby is not part of the Olympics”

“I think that to deserve victory you have to respect the Olympic spirit and demonstrate fair play…..One good thing about the Stade de France is that it exists”

“The only thing they have done for European agriculture is ‘mad cow (disease)…”You can’t trust people who have such lousy cooking” labelling British cooking the worst in Europe apart from that of Finland. (No, this wasn’t Berlusconi :)).

Paris is the bookies’ favourite at 4-9 right now.

Iraq: British Withdrawal Imminent?

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Two pieces of news on the Iraq front today. The British MOD are reported to be preparing “significant withdrawal of British troops from Iraq over the next 18 months”. In an entirely different context, Ibrahim Youssef al-Shammari has announced that he will act as spokesman for two insurgent groups: the Islamic Army in Iraq and the Army of the Mujahideen.

Russia’s Iran Offer

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Russia is offering to build up to six new nuclear reactors for Iran. I think that if the loss of global consensus attendant on the Iraq war has a price, a ‘less cordinated world’ will be one part of it. I think there is a serious danger of all this getting out of control.

Russia has pressed ahead with construction of Iran’s first nuclear power plant near the southern city of Bushehr, dismissing Washington’s belief that Tehran could use Moscow’s technology and know-how to make an atom bomb. “When Iran announces new tenders to construct nuclear reactors, we’ll take part in them,” Alexander Rumyantsev, head of Russia’s Atomic Energy Agency, told Itar-Tass news agency.