Tag Archives: European Union

Czech Republic Cancels Referendum Plans

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The Czech Republic, which hadn’t taken a final decision about how to implement the ratification process, will now not be organising a referendum. At least that is what the PM Jiri Paroubek is saying:

“Czech Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek said a decision by the UK to suspend a referendum on the EU constitution coupled with the French and Dutch rejections made a vote in his country ‘impossible’ for now.

In an interview with the BBC, broadcast Monday night, Paroubek — an advocate of the landmark treaty — also said he was ‘disappointed’ with the British move.”

Referendum in Italy

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Fooled you, it’s not about the euro :). Italy is about to have a referendum (next Sunday in fact), the topic: artificial insemination and embryo research. Benedict XVI has just spoken out against. In fact this has started me looking into the referendum situation in Italy. It seems they have quite a lot. Constitutionally they need 500,000 signatures, or 5 regional councils to back the call. Maroni is about to start collecting signatures.

Britain’s Referendum Postponed ‘Indefinitely’

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Well, now it’s official:

Britain, which takes over the presidency of the European Union next month, has postponed indefinitely a troubled referendum on the bloc’s constitution following its rejection in France and the Netherlands, Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office said Monday. Blair’s official spokesman said the failure of the French and Dutch referendums on the charter had to be discussed at the European Council summit later this month. The referendum faced likely defeat in Britain.

The Week Ahead

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This week promises to be another ‘busy’ one. Today the EU finance ministers (Ecofin) are meeting in Luxembourg, to discuss the condition of the common currency after last week’s ‘battering’ in the press and in the financial markets. Also headed for Luxembourg is EU Economics Commissioner Joaquim Almunia. Amongst other items he will have one in particulr which is high on his agenda: a meeting with Italian Ecomy Minister Domenico Siniscalco. Almunia is due to present a report on Italy’s deficit situation to the Commission tomorrow, and will almost certainly recommend the initiation of an excess deficit procedure under the revised terms of the stability and growth pact.
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Let Battle Be Joined

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Well, things are shaping up nicely for a ‘healthy debate of the underlying issues’ on 16/17 June. Chirac and Schr?der have pronounced: the ratification process must continue, Jean-Claude Juncker is warning that failure to reach a budget deal at the summit would “turn the big European difficulties into a big European crisis“, and Peter Mandelson forsees a historic opportunity for Tony Blair. Mandelson is quoted as saying:

“Tony Blair could carry on for another three years now that he has been given a “fresh calling” to resolve Europe’s crisis, his old ally Peter Mandelson claimed last night.

Mr Mandelson said the French and Dutch rejection of the European Union constitution handed Mr Blair another chance to secure his legacy as Prime Minister“.

What does all this mean? Well, according to France’s Le Figaro:

“Si Londres gagne, c’est la victoire de l’Europe lib?rale, ? l’anglo-saxonne, aussi ?largie que possible, un grand march? contr?l? au strict minimum par Bruxelles. Si Berlin l’emporte, c’est la victoire de l’Europe politique, libre-?changiste, mais surtout f?d?rale, avec une d?fense, une diplomatie, et une monnaie commune. Dans l’Europe b?tarde du trait? de Nice, tous les Etats membres n’ont pas encore choisi leur camp. La crise va les obliger ? tomber les masques.”

“”If London wins [the ratification dispute] it is a victory for liberal, Anglo-Saxon Europe, enlarged as much as possible, a giant market, with regulation from Brussels kept to a strict minimum. If It is Berlin that carries the day, it’s victory for the Political vision of Europe, free-trade, but especially federal, with a common defence, diplomacy, and a common money. In the ‘bastard’ Europe born of Nice treaty, all members states have not yet chosen their camp. The crisis will force everyone to take off their masks.”

Of course there is a third party here: the Commission. What Barroso will undoubtedly be working for is a pragmatic, workable compromise.

“Mr Barroso urged the French leader and his colleagues to “turn a crisis into an opportunity” and argued: “It is vital that we use the present moment to forge a new consensus.”

He warned Europe not to indulge in a “blame game” or an “ideological rift” between supporters of free markets and those who believe in government intervention. What was needed, Mr Barroso said, was “an intelligent synthesis between the market and the state, which can help Europe win and not lose in the face of globalisation”.”

‘Euro Overvalued’

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The euro is apparently overvalued. Actually I happen to agree, but today this opion comes to us from a most surprising person: Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, at this point in time President of the European Union. Now I am surprised by this, since he is neither Economics commisioner, nor spokesperson for the ECB, so I am not clear why it is he feels himself compelled to express an opinion.

Really this just highlights the fact that the institutional labyrinth we have created is such that not even those who administer it have sufficient clarity about who is responsible for what. In theory his press conference was about the forthcoming budget negotiations, but judging by what he said, I’m not clear he got round to reading that memo from Barroso about maintaining a sense of calm.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who holds the European Union presidency, warned on Friday that failure to agree on a new long-term EU budget this month would turn a political problem into a full-blown crisis.

Juncker, who also chairs euro zone finance ministers, said the single currency shared by 12 EU countries had been weakened by the “No” votes to the European constitution in France and the Netherlands but was still overvalued compared to the dollar.

“A failure on the financial perspective (budget) would turn the big European difficulties (after the referendums) into a big European crisis,” he told a news conference.

“As a result of the referendums, the euro is weakened. What helps the economy for the moment could in the long term become a burden,” he said, adding: “I think the euro is overvalued in relation to the dollar.”

He also informed the press that he would resign as PM if, as expected, the Luxembourg referendum voted ‘no’ on July 10. Anybody seen an actual Luxembourg poll recently?

Denmark Poll: ‘No’ Takes Lead

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The EU observer is carrying details of a poll conducted in Denmark by Greens Analyseinstitut, and published in the Danish business daily B?rsen today (3 June), 39.5 per cent of Danes would reject the Constitution, 30.8 per cent would now approve the Constitution, while 29.7 per cent were undecided.

Calculating roughly, this means of those who have decided, 56% are against and 44% are in favour. Interestingly 63% want the right to vote. Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen – the EU Observer says – is reluctant to officially cancel the planned referendum scheduled for 27 September. This is an elemnt I hadn’t bargained on – the people demanding the right to express themselves. This could become a bandwagon which it gets difficult to stop. I guess it is what Barroso meant by ‘contagion’.

Italian Referendum Call

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But in this case the vote would be about Italy’s continuing membership of the euro-zone, rather than the EU constitution. Now before going any further, I feel the need to advise extreme caution in the face of such developments.

In the first place the call comes from the Italian Labor Minister – and member of the separatist Liga Del Norte – Robert Maroni: It was made in an interview published by the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. He was not making a statement on behalf of the government, he was in all probability ‘electioneering’. (See Fran’s post: those politicians).

On the other hand, Berlusconi is pretty vulnerable at the moment, remember he has just put together a new coalition, and elections are coming next year.
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Clueless In and Out of Brussels

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We’re still all waiting really. Waiting to know what the next move really in the saga is going to be (Iceland isn’t in the community yet, if I remember correctly). Staring into the tea-leaves and casting a wary eye over towards Brussels, looking desperately for clues.

What this continuing lack of definition really does is make matters worse., compound the problem. It re-inforces exactly that feeling of being ‘left out of things’ that probably produced the ‘no’ votes in the first place. This isn’t very promising if you were hoping that at least the rejection of the constitution at the ballot box would act as a kind of ‘shock therapy’, now is it?

However, according to the rumours:
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Latvia Votes Yes

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The Latvian parliament approved the Constitution Treaty earlier this morning, by a huge majority:

“Latvia’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to support the EU constitution on Thursday, a decision lawmakers and analysts said sent a message from the new Europe to the old that the approval process must continue.

After several European leaders urged other member states to press ahead with the endorsement process after convincing rejections in the French and Dutch referendums, Latvia’s 100 member parliament voted 71 for the constitution with 5 votes against and 6 abstaining“.

The next hurdle will be the Luxembourg referendum, on the 10th July. This will take place as scheduled if the EU summit of 15/16 June doesn’t decide to change tack.

Meanwhile French media are announcing that there is a plan B, it’s called Blair. Tony Blair, they are suggesting, will seize the opportunity presented by disarray in the federal Europe camp to push ahead with ‘liberal’ economic reforms, leaving the institutional infrastructure to languish. Possibly the outcome the French fear most. Something like this may in fact be what happens.