Swiss Joining Schengenland

In a referendum, 55 percent of Swiss voters who went to the polls cast their ballots in favor of joining the Schengen agreement. Implementation will last through 2007 (though it will be complete for the 2008 European football championships, co-hosted with Austria), but the path to passport-free travel is clear. Joining the area also gives Swiss authorities to a collective database on wanted and missing persons.

Norway and Iceland are the other two non-EU members of the Schengen agreement. The rest of the old EU-15 are members, except for Ireland and the United Kingdom.

UPDATE: As Edward writes, and I should have mentioned, “It is also interesting to note that the supposedly ‘socially conservative’ Switzerland has become the first European state to give solid legal rights to gay partnerships in a popular vote. This should also put some of the recent EU referendum in some perspective.”

Long Sentence Arrived

Following up on the previous post, Khordokovsky was indeed found guilty and sentenced to nine years. Allowing for time already served and possible sentence reduction for good behavior, he could be out in 2009. Well after Russia’s 2008 presidential election which is, presumably, part of the plan.

Khodorkovsky is appealing the verdict, and Yukos is suing various parties for $11.5 billion, alleging expropriation. I wouldn’t put much stock in the success of either venture.

Long Sentence Coming

The trial of Mikhail Khodorkovsky is coming to an end, with a guilty verdict a near certainty. Actually, a guilty verdict has been a near certainty from the word go: conviction rates in Russia are upwards of 95 percent. With the structure saying one thing and the Kremlin saying the same thing, maybe the biggest surprise is that it has taken so long to get there.

The prosecution has asked for a ten-year sentence, and they will probably get it. According to the news on my radio station this morning, the judge’s latest ruling reproduced the prosecution’s brief word for word. Including typographical errors.

General Counting.

Her Majesties’ subjects have spoken again. It’s just that we don’t know yet what exactly they have said. Well, a majority among them will have probably sighed a little in the booth and then more or less resignedly or enthusiastically ticked off the box next to their local Labour candidate, thus likely ensuring Blairs “historic” second and a half term in office. Earlier, Exit polls predicted a reduced Labour majority of 66 seats.

But because we want to know all this in detail, it is worth mentioning again on top of the page that afoe’s Nick Barlow is blogging the election night over at “What you can get away with” as well as on the 2005 UK General election blog. Here’s why he thinks it’s worth staying up:

“Conservatives take back Putney on a 6.5% swing, Labour hold Newcastle Central but have an 11% swing to the Liberal Democrats. There?s not going to be anything even resembling a uniform national swing tonight, so this could be a long night.”

If that’s still not enough information for the true election junkies among you, then check the list of election bloggers compiled by Chicken Yoghurt. Oh, and before I forget it, the BBC does also offer extensive election coverage including an automatically updating scorecard.

Britain’s election: A statement

As the UK goes to the polls today, I feel the need to make a statement. A few weeks ago, I promised that I would deliver some posts to this blog regarding the election. Now, some of you may believe that because these posts have not appeared, I should make an apology, but that would not be right. A team of inspectors have searched my computer and discovered that not only were there post-related program activities going on during this time but that election related posts may have been moved to neighbouring blogs.

Eh, Non

The Financial Times quotes former EU Commission President Romano Prodi on the consequences of a French rejection of the constitutional treaty.

?There would be no more Europe. We will pass through a long period of crisis.

?The problem will not only be a catastrophe for France, but the fall of Europe.?

This is arrant nonsense.

Nor is it likely to help the Yes campaign. The French are a funny people (sometimes even intentionally) but they are not likely to be stampeded into voting yes by this sort of gloom and doom.

The Union will face a crisis if France does not approve the constitutional treaty by the final deadline of 1 November 2006. It’s not at all clear to me, though, that a rejection next month is a final rejection. (If anyone has learned anything about EU politics, it is surely that nothing is ever final.)

The bid to have France lead the way forward looks to be failing. But are the French willing to be the only people to reject the treaty?

Five member states have ratified the treaty already; Spain, the sixth, has said Yes in a referendum, so parliamentary ratification is likely to be a formality. Four to six more could act before the French referendum. All of the countries in question are addressing the constitution through their parliaments, and all are expected to vote Yes. So as much as half the Union may have said Yes by the time France throws a spanner in the works.

And a spanner it would be. While an EU without France is barely conceivable (though it might simplify language issues), the converse is also true. Plus the French have said No to a treaty before, and then changed their collective mind.

This still seems the likeliest course to me. France will say No next month. Over the course of the next year, almost everyone else will say Yes. France’s voters will face the prospect of Europe going on without them, and they will see the situation differently.

(Bonus Machiavellian questions: Is the FT deliberately trying to weaken Prodi by splashing such silliness on their front page? Do they really prefer Berlusconi? Or are they simply unable to resist such juicily foolish quotes from a major figure?)

Ciao Silvio?

As always with Italian parliamentary maneuvering, it’s a bit opaque, but two minor parties appear to have left the Berlusconi government. At least one wants the prime minister to stay, but with a different cabinet. The intentions of the other were not immediately clear. Early elections are not out of the question, ending Berlusconi’s quest to be the first postwar Italian prime minister to serve a full term.

The Adams Family

I’m crossposting something I originally wrote for my own blog because I realized it’s probably of far more interest to Fistful readers than to my own.

In March I wrote in Slate about Gerry Adams and the IRA, and the theory advanced by Ed Moloney (author of the excellent A Secret History of the IRA) that the Northern Bank bank robbery in December was part of Adams’ covert strategy to force the IRA to accept peace. If that theory is true, and I’m convinced by it more and more every day, then we’re now seeing the plan unfold.
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